Second lockdown takes us back to March 2020, again

Boda-boda operators outside a supermarket at Westlands.

Covid-19 behaves more like a pendulum without gravity. It will keep swinging up and down without settling.

Just when we thought the pandemic was under control, it spiked necessitating another lockdown, taking us back to March last year.

The lockdown is the suggested gravity to slow down the Covid-19 pendulum. It is amazing how the age-old methods of disease control like lockdowns or quarantines have persisted into the space age.

This demonstrates our helplessness against nature and this should humble us.

This lockdown is more serious than the last one, affecting more counties. But let us be blunt, we saw this coming. With all the political rallies and a feeling that we now have a vaccine, we were more likely to let our guard down.

This is a perfect case of moral hazard. Remember speeding because your car is insured? Spending your money because you are anticipating a salary raise? Human behaviour is more predictable than we want to admit. The emergence of Covid-19 variants that spread faster meant that with time, it would hit our shores.

The government has been unusually quiet on new variants. The data on Covid-19 cases should break them into variants. How did we prepare for the new variants?

After all, epidemiology is a mature science with its models. How come no one talks about flattening the curve anymore?

Why do we love crisis? It’s only after reports on intensive care units (ICUs) being full, hefty charges on admissions and full hospitals that we acted.

We should ask why the five counties are epicentres of Covid-19. What did Mombasa do that Nairobi did not? Any lessons for the no longer green city in the sun? The third wave hit just when things were taking a turn around. To demonstrate how things were looking rosy, hotels in Mombasa were full with schools closed.

So much that flights had to be extended to Monday. The curfews and economic slowdown has made lots of citizens tired and exhausted, they are taking holidays when they can.

We should prepare for the Covid-19 tourism boom once the pandemic is controlled through vaccines or burning itself out. We hope the holiday will not result in a resurgence of cases in Mombasa. Curiously, the lockdown came soon after Kenya private sector alliance (Kepsa) raised the issue.

Does that show how powerful a lobby it has become? Or are Kepsa interests intertwined with those of who matter? What next after the lockdown?

Things were looking up with gross domestic product (GDP) anticipated to hit about 5.2 per cent this year according to World Bank projections.

We hardly hit one per cent last year. With the current lockdown, we need to revise this growth downwards.

The lockdown is affecting counties with a combined population of about 11 million. The deceased economic activities will soon be reflected in our national statistics.

Remember the locked counties trade with the rest of the counties and the world. The lockdown has a ripple effect. Does the upsurge of coronavirus cases in these counties reflect their economic rebounding? Even neighbouring countries will feel the lockdown; transport to Uganda, Sudan and Rwanda pass through the locked counties.

The police checks are likely to lead to delays. Uncertainty over the end of lockdown will weigh on our emotional health. One wishes the lockdown was not open-ended. We shall postpone our investment and consumption decisions indefinitely.

The second lockdown means there could be a third or more. One hopes that the open-ended nature of the lockdown is a sign that it will soon be over, hopefully after Easter Holidays.

The memories of the first lockdown are still fresh in our mind. But as we predicted, we can get used to anything. That “getting used” is what we need to target in our fight against Covid-19 and its variants.

As individuals and enterprises, we have to recalibrate our routines, with less time till 8pm. What shall we do at home? Why not try board games like scrabble or chess?

Remember the hobbies you neglected? Two hours of inactivity is costly to the economy. If each Kenyan makes an average Sh10,000 a month and work for 40 hours per week, for a total of 160 hours a month.

You make Sh6.25 an hour. Missing two hours translates into a loss of Sh13.50 per day.

We assume given a chance, we would all work at night.

That would lead to a loss of Sh13.50 multiplied by 25 million, assuming 25 million people can work. You get a loss of Sh337.5 million per day for the whole country....

Extrapolate that to the duration of lockdown and it comes out clearly why lockdowns are costly. From the time Covid-19 came ashore, I have advocated a 24-hour economy to distribute crowds, not lockdowns.

The highest cost of lockdown is not even financial, it’s emotional. Staying indoors, fear of job losses, family feuds, anxiety and possibly substance abuse.

That is why we must rethink sports during the lockdown. We want a sane nation. But we designed our cities as bedrooms with no open spaces, parks or recreation facilities.

The State should roll out an economic stimulus package to mitigate the effect of the new lockdown just as it did with the first lockdown.

The government is hard-pressed for money just like its taxpayers. We need to share the burden; no one saw the long shadow of Covid-19 coming.

Finally, we should not waste a good crisis to quote Winston Churchill. Why can’t the five locked counties with a population of over 11 million forms a mega county?

They are neighbours, think of the synergy and economics of scale that would result?

If they can share the virus, why not economic growth and prosperity? Covid-19 disrupted our lives and our dreams.

With our ingenuity and innovation, I believe we shall control it. The avalanche of vaccines is the best sign that we are turning the corner.

Sadly, some lives will be collateral damage. We pay tribute to men and women plucked from our midst by the grim reaper. Let us be patient, it is often darkest before dawn. Our wells of optimism must never run dry.

 -The writer is an associate professor at the University of Nairobi