Kenya fertility rate drops to 3.1 children per woman as Mandera leads with 6.8, Embu lowest at 2.2

The survey shows that Kenya’s fertility rate has dropped to 3.1 children per woman, down from 3.4 recorded in 2022 and 4.9 in 2003.

Kenya is experiencing a growing fertility divide, with women in some counties having nearly seven children while others are having barely two, according to the latest Kenya Mini Demographic and Health Survey (KMDHS) 2025/2026.

The survey shows that Kenya’s fertility rate has dropped to 3.1 children per woman, down from 3.4 recorded in 2022 and 4.9 in 2003.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) means that if fertility were to remain at current levels, a woman in Kenya would bear an average of 3.1 children in her lifetime.

Behind the national average, however, lie striking differences. Women in Mandera County have an average of 6.8 children, while their counterparts in Embu are having just 2.2.

“Fertility levels vary substantially across counties, reflecting marked differentials in reproductive behaviour. Mandera County has the highest total fertility rate that is 6.8 children per woman, while Embu County has the lowest at 2.2 children per woman.

Thirty-one of the 47 counties have a total fertility rate above the national estimate of 3.1 children per woman,” read part of the report.

The report links childbearing closely to education and household income. The TFR declines from 5.4 children per woman among those with no education to 2.7 among women with more than a secondary education.

Similarly, fertility falls with increasing wealth, from 4.5 children per woman in the lowest wealth quintile to 2.3 in the highest quintile.

Place of residence also matters. Fertility in rural areas has fallen from 5.4 children in the three years preceding the 2003 survey to 3.6 in the three years before the 2025–26 survey, a decline of 1.8 children. In urban areas, the decline was more gradual, from 3.3 to 2.6, a drop of 0.7 children.

Overall, the TFR has declined by 1.8 children since the 2003 survey.

The survey also points to a shift in when women are having children. “

“Fertility rises from 63 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19 to a peak of 161 births per 1,000 women aged 25–29, before declining among older age groups. In previous surveys, fertility peaked among women aged 20–24,” the report states.

The median age at first birth for women aged 25–49 is 20.9 years. It increases with education, rising from 19.8 years among women with no education to 24.3 years among those with more than a secondary education. It also rises with wealth, from 19.4 years in the lowest quintile to 23 years in the highest.

The highest median ages at first birth are in Kiambu at 22.5 years, Mombasa at 22.3 years, Nairobi City at 22.0 years and Embu at 21.9 years. The lowest are in Homa Bay at 18.6 years, Kisumu at 19.0 years, Migori at 19 years and Samburu 19.1 years.

“Among all women aged 15–49, the mean number of children ever born is 2.1, with 2.0 surviving children. Among currently married women, the figures are higher, at 3 and 2.9 respectively,” the report says.

Children are also being born further apart. “WHO and other international organisations advise individuals and couples to wait at least 24–36 months between births to lower the likelihood of adverse maternal and child health outcomes.”

The median birth interval in Kenya is now 46.3 months, up by 13.7 months from 32.6 months in 2003. Only 14 per cent of births occur within 24 months of the preceding birth.

The shortest intervals are in Mandera (24.8 months), Garissa (25.3 months) and Wajir (26.7 months), while the longest are in Embu (68.5 months), Kirinyaga (64.4 months) and Machakos (57.6 months).

“The gap is also shorter where the previous child has died, at 27.7 months, compared with 47.1 months where the preceding child is alive. Mothers with no education have a median interval of 30.5 months, against 48.5–49.0 months for those with at least primary education. Intervals are longer in urban areas 49.8 months than in rural areas 43.4 months,” the report states.

The survey further states that teenage pregnancy and motherhood remain a major public health and social concern, given the increased risk of death for both mother and child. Twelve per cent of girls aged 15–19 have ever been pregnant, 9 per cent have had a live birth and 3 per cent are currently pregnant with their first child.

“The rate rises from 2 per cent at age 15 to 27 per cent at age 19. It stands at 13 per cent in rural areas against 11 per cent in urban areas, and is roughly three times higher among girls in the lowest wealth quintile than in the highest 15 per cent versus 5 per cent,” the report states.

West Pokot at 25 per cent, Migori at 23 per cent and Kajiado at 20 per cent record the highest rates, while Isiolo at 3 per cent, Makueni at 4 per cent, Garissa 5 per cent and Murang’a 5 per cent record the lowest.