Trump may not lose but just fail to win

Last Sunday, we boldly predicted that Donald Trump (pictured) had a chance to win a second term as US president. We were not far off.

Many Kenyans disagreed with me and expected Joe Biden to win with a landslide. In the end the democrats may win, just. It was almost like 2016, when against all expectations and opinion polls, Trump won.

Why did Trump surprise us? With all the benefits of incumbency, why did Trump fail to win? We should not really be surprised, unless we ignore facts on the ground and accept we don’t understand the thinking of an average American.

Unless you have lived in the US, what you see in the media will remain your benchmark, far removed from reality. If, finally, Biden wins we can conclude that Trump did not lose, he just failed to win. Here are some plausible reasons.

One, he was a victim of his own success. By going against the grain, shaking up everything in America and abroad including withdrawing from alliances or renegotiating trade agreements, Trump became popular among the conservatives - men and women nostalgic about American power and influence. They are mostly White, Anglo-Saxon and Protestant (Wasp).

This group stuck with him to the end. But remembe, political systems must eventually return to the equilibrium, to the centre. Stock markets go through ‘corrections’ when they rise based on emotions, not economic fundamentals.

In the same way, the American politics had to go through a correction, a return to sobriety. This correction should be a Democratic win to ‘slow’ things down and moderate decisions taken by Trump, which rattled the establishment and echoed across the globe.

Beyond returning the American politics to the centre, the George Floyd effect can’t be ruled out. The riots that followed the death of a Black American in police hands may have rattled some of Trump’s key supporters. Does it surprise you the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are near George Floyd‘s home state of Minnesota?

Though Trump’s base of support remained solid, the few defectors - mostly urbanites - could make him jobless. Remember Black men, angered by Floyd’s death, make up about 13 per cent of the US population and are mostly Democrats.

The urbanites are less conservative and more likely to change their voting trends because of such events. Analysis shows they changed their minds and helped Biden almost win.

But the key reason why Biden struggled to win was the economy. We have repeatedly suggested that the booming economy was Trump’s secret weapon, and it almost worked. It was only derailed by Covid-19.

The election results clearly show Trump was reluctant to lock down the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic. The slump would have deflated his economic performance and votes.

As exit polls showed, voters saw the economy as a bigger issue than coronavirus. If there was no Covid-induced slump, Trump’s win was almost assured. The next president, whether Trump II or Joe Biden, has work cut for him.

Changing demographics played a role. By rallying against immigrants, Trump may have put off his potential voters.

Deeper analysis as counting is finished could explain why Trump failed to win, or Biden will be declared the winner. There could be new voting patterns in the 2020 polls. Remember every election is unique. What we can’t dispute is that Trump surprised us with better-than-predicted performance, almost winning a second term.

Unlike the leakage of Clinton emails in 2016 or death of Osama bin Laden before, there was no big event that could have dramatically shifted voters in 2020. I was surprised that Republicans never had a ‘big’ foreign issue to hedge their bets on.

The story on Biden’s son’s business dealings in Ukraine did not pick, but will most likely feature more if Biden becomes president. Failing to leverage on foreign events was one of Trump’s big failures.

Opinion polls remain what they are, opinions. What is on the ground is often different. It seems pollsters are yet to get the exactness of science despite the popularity of big data and powerful computers.

Human behaviour still lacks predictability. We should rejoice over that, the unpredictability is what makes us human!

Undo Trumpism

One of the happiest Americans today must be Hilary Clinton, if Biden is declared the winner. After four years, the victory she was denied has finally been handled to Democrats. I look forward to seeing her on Inauguration Day sitting next to other leading Democrats like Barack Obama, her husband Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

The Democrats will have to undo lots of Trumpism if they get to White House. That might not be an easy task and they could easily warm the seat for Republicans in another four years.

Politicians accuse the incumbent of not doing enough till they get into office themselves. If Biden wins, we have four years to compare him with Trump. That is the beauty of mature democracies, voters can punish your political opponents on your behalf. And anonymously.

If we get four years of Biden, some suggest it will be Obama II. We expect more friendly policies to Africa, away from the “shithole” label. But remember even with Democrats, American interests come first.

Biden’s first agenda is confronting Covid-19 head on and reviving the economy. We hope at 77, Biden’s victory will not be pyrrhic.

Trump was about to have a second term or may get through legal manoeuvres but a few events stopped him. He almost won despite impeachment. But let us not forget that beyond the appointment of Supreme Court judges, Trump’s legacy will outlive him even if he loses.

He stood up against China, and allies, slowed globalisation and outsourcing and made Americans feel great again. In politics, he brought a style that defied all rules of a gentleman and redefined what it means to be ‘presidential’.

Finally, if Biden wins, will Africa’s elderly leaders have a reason to smile?

- The writer is associate professor at the University of Nairobi