Kenya faces immense security challenges in new year

Kenya is facing significant threats from without its borders as well as from within. During 2013 and 2014, the Government expanded the domestic security role of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) initially to supplement paramilitary elements of the National Police Service (NPS) but increasingly seeming to replace the disorganised, understrength, under-equipped and badly trained Administration Police (APs).

By using the KDF as a sort of internal fire brigade to fill the widening gaps in domestic law and order the Government is unaccountably delaying the full implementation of the National Police Service Act, 2011 despite allocating funds in excess of $1.2 billion for internal security; failure to recruit new police personnel will further exacerbate problems of domestic insecurity well into 2016 as numbers of uniformed officers continue to drop due to normal attrition, casualties suffered during operations against criminals or involving terrorist attacks.

The ongoing commitment of nearly 4,000 KDF personnel to AMISOM — to support the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in Mogadishu — further reduces the Government’s KDF deployment options. The failure to prioritise KDF roles and missions will stretch its resources, diminish its combat power and erode morale and discipline within its ranks.

Although the Al-Shabaab in Somalia has been displaced by AMISOM from Barawe on the Indian Ocean and any number of minor market towns and villages along major roads it has suffered nearly no loss in combat power. The Al-Shabaab continues to withdraw in good order before militarily superior AMISOM troops; the Al-Shabaab suffers few documented casualties and minimal losses of equipment and heavy weapons. The Al-Shabaab continues to control vast swathes of rural South Central Somalia from where it draws recruits, caches supplies including munitions and conducts its planning and logistics operations.

Following the launch of Operation Linda Nchi in October 2011 the Al-Shabaab ramped up its low intensity war in all three NEP counties; Al-Shabaab has tapped into long smoldering popular discontent in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa and has extended its insurgency from Somalia into these restive counties.

The Government has steadfastly refused to recognise the true nature of the conflict in these three counties; that is, a spreading insurgency rather than mere terrorism or criminal activity. The Al Shabaab has increased its recruiting activities throughout Kenya targeting alienated youth of all backgrounds and religious persuasions.

The Al Shabaab’s strategy is to play upon the socio-economic fault lines in Kenya with the long term objective of extending its de facto control over much of the area bordering Somalia including strengthening its hold on 500,000 refugees in the four Dadaab camps.

Next week, we look at radicalisation at the Coast.


 

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