How Trump's tariff wars might hurt Kenyan shilling and trade

A fruit vendor in Eldoret. For months now, the shilling has been oscillating at Sh130 against the dollar. [File, Standard]

How President Donald Trump's economic policies might affect diaspora remittances features in the economists' watch-list, who note that inflows from the Middle East and China may fill the gap the United States has left in the economy.

A negative change in diaspora remittances could hurt the shilling whose stability to a bigger extent depends on how much Kenyans send back home. Transfers from the US contribute the largest in the diaspora remittances basket with data showing that in January 2025, more than Sh30 billion was sent back home.