Of Ruto's 'monumental threat' and vote-securing calls: Inside Rift Valley's panic

DCP's Douglas Kamau Waweru was declared the winner of the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election after garnering 35,440 votes to defeat UDA candidate Samuel Muchina. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP)’s victory in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has sent quakes through the Rift Valley, with a section of political leaders interpreting the outcome as an early warning ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The result has triggered calls for political mobilisation, particularly among leaders allied to President William Ruto, who now see voter registration as a key battleground in the run-up to the next polls.

In a video circulating online, Head of Public Service Felix Koskei urged members of the Kalenjin community to organise themselves and ensure every eligible adult acquires a national identity card and registers as a voter.

"Everyone should know their neighbour and identify every eligible member in each family. Let everyone get an identity card and register as a voter. Not even one person should be left behind. This is where we start," he said.

Koskei said the community must register in large numbers to match the voting strength of the Mt Kenya region.

"We are the ones on the frontline in the journey ahead until President William Ruto is re-elected for a second term. Votes from other areas will come to support us and ensure we succeed," he added.

Nominated MP Bishop Jackson Kosgei said the message sent by Mt Kenya voters through the Ol Kalou by-election was impossible to ignore.

"Tell your people in Mt Kenya that we have heard you," Kosgei said.

He observed that despite an intensive campaign and government support in the constituency, voters opted for a different direction.

President William Ruto during NYOTA program launch. [PCS]

Kosgei urged Kalenjin leaders to remain united, saying internal cohesion would be critical in the coming political contest.

Baringo North MP Joseph Makilap said leaders from the region had agreed not to dwell publicly on the by-election results, but admitted the outcome had prompted serious reflection.

"We have heard and we have seen. Enough is enough. We have agreed as Kalenjin MPs not to keep talking about the Ol Kalou by-election but to remain silent," Makilap said.

He compared the result to the 1995 Kipipiri by-election, saying it had reminded leaders of the need to rethink their political strategy.

Even so, Makilap expressed confidence that President Ruto would still secure a second term in 2027.

He also urged eligible residents to register as voters and appealed to local administrators to help mobilise the people for the exercise.

Tirioko Ward MCA Sam Lourien said the Ol Kalou outcome was more than just the loss of a parliamentary seat.

According to him, the Rift Valley had received a clear political message from the Mt Kenya region, similar to what happened after former President Daniel arap Moi left office in 2002.

Lourien argued that despite Moi initiating major development projects in Mt Kenya and appointing three vice presidents from the region, including former President Mwai Kibaki, he still faced hostility after leaving office.

He said relations between the two regions improved in 2013 when they joined forces behind a common presidential ticket that stayed in power for ten years.

Lourien also linked the current political tension to the fallout between President Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of the 2022 elections.

"Only a foolish person would pretend that the outcome in Ol Kalou has no bearing on where the region will stand in 2027. Perhaps it is good that this message has come early because it gives us time to reflect," he said.

He argued that criticism directed at President Ruto had gone beyond issues of governance and the economy.

President William Ruto during a past political rally. [Getty Images]

"In our tradition, it is an abomination to call a grown man a boy. Once he has undergone initiation and married, he deserves honour. What we are seeing today is much deeper than politics or the economy," Lourien said.

He predicted that the next General Election would be one of the fiercest political contests in the country's history.

"The 2027 election will be the mother of all political battles. It will be Mt Kenya versus Rift Valley. Time will tell," he said.

Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi, however, sought to cool the political temperature, dismissing claims by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua that he could marshal seven million Mt Kenya votes against President Ruto in 2027.

In a social media post, Sudi argued that the numbers did not support Gachagua's claim.

He said the Mt Kenya region cast about 3.8 million votes in the 2022 General Election for both President Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga combined.

According to Sudi, even after factoring in votes from cosmopolitan counties such as Nakuru, Laikipia and Kiambu, together with the more than 527,000 new voters registered since 2022, the region could not produce the seven million votes being claimed.

"Let's all calm down and stop making wild proclamations. There is no scenario where Gachagua delivers more than four million votes, even if every voter backs his preferred candidate. Mathematics does not lie," Sudi stated.

Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli argued that the DCP victory posed less of a threat from rival politicians than from ordinary Kenyans frustrated by the high cost of living.

"It is the people of Kenya who are a threat to President Ruto because he has spread misery equally to everyone, and that has equalised the country," Naituli said.

He argued that many voters were increasingly judging leaders on government performance rather than ethnic affiliation and warned that attempts to mobilise support along ethnic lines could alienate other communities.

Instead, he urged the President to treat the by-election as an opportunity for self-correction by delivering on campaign promises and lowering the cost of living.

The renewed calls for voter registration mirror an appeal President Ruto made in April during the burial of the father of Transport Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir in Bomet County.

Speaking in Kalenjin, the President disclosed that more than 1.8 million eligible voters from the community had not registered despite possessing national identity cards, while another 500,000 adults were yet to obtain IDs.

"I go round begging, kneeling, asking for support because I have to consolidate numbers due to people who have failed me," Ruto said, urging leaders and residents to prioritise voter registration to strengthen his political base ahead of 2027.