Ruto faces renewed headache over shifting Western Kenya backing

Governor Fernandes Barasa receives President William Ruto at Kakamega Airstrip. [File, Standard]

President William Ruto is increasingly facing political headwinds in Western Kenya, a region once viewed as a critical pillar in his re-election strategy.

Even some of his closest allies now openly admit that selling him to the people has become a difficult task.

What is emerging across the region is a broader political fatigue fuelled by unfulfilled campaign promises, internal wrangles among pro-government leaders, economic frustrations, and a growing perception that Western Kenya has remained politically useful but developmentally neglected.

Adding to the challenges is the emergence of the Linda Mwananchi movement, a faction within ODM aligned with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and other leaders opposed to the party’s cooperation with President Ruto.

The movement has staged rallies across the region, exposing deep divisions and opening a fresh political battlefront against Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who have traditionally dominated the region’s politics under the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

The clearest sign of growing discomfort came from Co-operatives and MSMEs Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, one of Ruto’s key allies in the region. Oparanya publicly admitted that recent political expulsions and disciplinary actions targeting leaders from Western Kenya are making it harder for them to campaign for the President in ODM strongholds.

Oparanya cited the recent removal of Bumula MP Jack Wamboka from the Public Investments Committee (PIC) on Governance and Education, a move critics view as political intimidation by Speaker Wetang’ula.

“This trend of chasing members from parties and committees is giving us a very hard time campaigning for President Ruto. Everywhere we go, they are asking why was so and so chased,” Oparanya said.

His remarks exposed deeper anxieties within Kenya Kwanza’s Western Kenya camp and fears that the region is slowly slipping away politically. They also reinforced earlier comments he made during Labour Day celebrations, when he revealed that President Ruto had personally complained to him about the lukewarm reception the President continues to receive in Western Kenya compared to other regions.

For political observers, the remarks were unusually candid for a sitting Cabinet Secretary and pointed to widening cracks within Ruto’s support base in the region.

Political analyst Barrack Muluka argues that the problem facing Ruto in Western Kenya is part of a larger national discontent with his administration. However, the frustrations are particularly visible in the region because of the high expectations created during the 2022 campaigns.

“President Ruto made measurable promises in Western Kenya. He talked about 1,000 kilometres of tarmac roads, revival of Mumias and Nzoia factories, and major investments in the region. People are now asking where those promises went,” Muluka says.

He adds that the repeated launching and relaunching of projects without visible implementation has weakened trust in the President’s pledges.

“You launch the same road three times. People see tractors and signboards when the President visits, then everything disappears after a few days. People are not blind,” he said.

No benefits

At the centre of the frustrations is the feeling that Western Kenya has not benefited proportionately, despite producing some of the most senior figures in government, including Wetang’ula and Mudavadi.

The sugar sector, the economic backbone of the region, remains a politically sensitive issue. While the government has pushed privatisation as a solution to struggling millers, critics say the promised benefits have not been felt widely enough to change public perception.

Western Kenya-based former political detainee Wafula Buke notes that the sugar reforms have instead become part of the growing list of grievances. “The positive aspects or value supposed to come from privatisation have not been accepted by the people. The government has failed to counter the perception that Western is losing rather than benefiting,” he says.

The rising cost of living, unemployment, and stalled infrastructure projects have worsened the situation, making it difficult even for seasoned government-allied politicians to defend the administration, he observes.

Buke also notes that many traditional pro-government mobilisers in the region are losing influence while a younger and more vocal opposition wave is emerging.

“The old preachers are going down and new preachers are emerging. The opposition to those defending this government is strong, youthful, articulate and organised.”

The opposition energy is increasingly associated with Sifuna, whose criticism of the Kenya Kwanza administration has gained traction among younger voters.

Linda Mwananchi coordinator in Bungoma and Bokoli Ward MCA aspirant Ignatius Nyukuri claimed Western Kenya remains largely in opposition despite the presence of senior leaders in government. “Western region is in government by a few people, but the majority of citizens are in the opposition,” Nyukuri says.

He cites delayed implementation of key promises, including infrastructure expansion and employment opportunities, as evidence that the region has not gained much from backing the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“If there is any time the Luhyas were supposed to feel they are in government, it should be now. But the life we had during Kibaki and Uhuru is the same life we have today, and has even worsened,” he says.

Another politically sensitive issue is the perception that leaders allied to Ruto from Western Kenya are targeting or sidelining rivals within the region, creating internal resentment that is hurting the President’s image.

Analysts say Oparanya’s public discomfort with the handling of such disputes may reflect broader unease among leaders who fear being politically isolated if Ruto’s popularity continues to decline.

Some observers now interpret Oparanya’s recent appearances alongside figures linked to the Linda Mwananchi movement as a sign that parts of the Western political establishment may already be recalibrating ahead of 2027.

Muluka believes some leaders are quietly preparing for a political exit.“When you hear those people speaking, it’s not like they are preparing to abandon him. They are already abandoning him.”

The challenge for Ruto is that Western Kenya was expected to become one of the pillars cushioning him against opposition strongholds in Nyanza, Ukambani, and parts of the Coast.

In 2022, his alliance with Mudavadi and Wetang’ula delivered significant gains and weakened ODM’s dominance. Four years later, the political mood appears increasingly uncertain.