Why Kenya's first world dream depends on jobs, not optimism

President William Ruto speaking in a past event. [Wilberforce Okwiri, Standard]

Kenya is once again speaking in the language of possibility. In recent months, President William Ruto has declared that Kenya can transition from a developing country to a developed one within our lifetime, and perhaps in as little as fifteen years.

It is an uplifting vision, and ambition is never a bad thing. Yet for any country, progress does not flow from optimism alone. It flows from the work people can do, the opportunities they can access, and the dignity they can build through productive employment. In short, the future Kenya seeks will be decided by the quality and scale of jobs we create. 

Every nation that has crossed the development threshold has done so by aligning its demographic transition with a clear economic strategy. Singapore is a useful mirror. In the 1960s, it faced high fertility, rapid urbanisation, youth unemployment and social pressures. It did not treat these as background challenges. It treated them as the fulcrum of national planning. Demography, education, jobs, housing, and industry were woven into one coherent design. 

Singapore’s success was not accidental. The country paired its youthful population with policies that upgraded skills, attracted investment, improved productivity, and connected training with industry needs. Over decades, it moved from labour-intensive manufacturing to higher-value services and technology. Crucially, this was not done with slogans. It was achieved through long-term strategy, disciplined execution, and consistent leadership. 

Kenya’s situation today carries echoes of that early Singapore moment. More than 75 per cent of our people are under 35. Fertility is falling but remains uneven across counties. Schooling has expanded, yet far too many young people face a difficult transition from education to work. The informal sector absorbs millions, but without security, progression, or rising productivity. Hope remains high, but frustration is growing among graduates unable to secure stable employment. 

This is Kenya’s demographic window. If we seize it, we can accelerate growth, deepen stability, and strengthen national cohesion. If we waste it, we risk becoming a nation that grows old before it becomes prosperous. 

What would seizing this opportunity require? First, a jobs strategy anchored in productivity. Agriculture, agro-processing, renewable energy, digital services, logistics, and tourism have the potential to absorb youth at scale.

Our technical institutions require sustained funding, industry partnerships, and the prestige they deserve. Third, urban planning, housing, and transport must keep pace with the rising number of young Kenyans moving to cities in search of work. 

Finally, inclusion must be intentional. Young people are not simply jobseekers. They are voters, creators, entrepreneurs, and citizens eager to shape the nation’s direction. Giving them voice and responsibility is essential for economic progress and civic trust. 

Kenya’s first-world dream is not out of reach, but it will not be realised through optimism alone. It will be realised through jobs that restore dignity, build families, and strengthen the social fabric. The nation we hope for tomorrow depends on the opportunities we create for young people today. 

-The writer is a consultant in policy, strategy, and governance. [e-mail]