Sh250 billion nuclear gamble puts Siaya on edge amid safety fears

Nuclear Power Plant. [File Courtesy]

It has all the marks of a disaster in waiting. A project critics believe is being rushed for political expediency at the expense of concerns raised by nuclear experts, the government’s own findings that had dismissed Lake Victoria as a potential site for such a project, and reservations by residents.

But still, President William Ruto’s regime is trudging on with the quest to construct the country’s first nuclear plant in Siaya at a cost of Sh500 billion along the shores of Lake Victoria.

On Monday, President Ruto described the project as a game-changer that will improve access to electricity for the country and the region, as he rallied Nyanza to back his administration. He, however, revised the cost to Sh250 billion, but experts project that such a project could cost about Sh700 billion. “The first 2,000 megawatts currently under consideration will cost the government Sh250 million, and it is going to happen in Siaya,” said Ruto.

But in the quiet rural landscape of Lenya, Central Sakwa Ward in Bondo Sub-County, Siaya County, the prospect of Kenya’s first nuclear power plant has brought a mixture of hope, anxiety and unanswered questions.

The proposed mega project, whose groundbreaking is planned for March 2027, is being presented by the government as a major step towards solving Kenya’s energy deficit and accelerating industrialisation.

But for hundreds of families living on the 200-acre piece of land earmarked for the project and thousands more sharing the vital Lake Victoria, the nuclear plant is also raising difficult questions that remain largely unanswered.

The residents have also questioned the credibility of the Environment and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) report linked to the project, alleging that the process may have been compromised.

They expressed fears that the environmental and social effects of the plant had not been fully explained to local communities, particularly those dependent on fishing and mining for their livelihoods.

At least two petitions have been filed in court to challenge the implementation of the project, but beyond the legal pursuit, residents are also rallying multitudes to reject the project that experts describe as a mega gamble, placing the lives of many on the edge.

Barely a year ago, Uyombo residents in Kilifi rejected the same project over alleged threats to marine ecosystems, fears of water contamination, lack of consultation and long-term health risks.

Government officials claim the concerns that were raised by Kilifi residents have been addressed in Siaya and are confident that the project will be a massive success. But that has done little to calm the nerves of a community whose livelihoods revolve around the lake.

An investigation by The Standard has established that earlier assessments by the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA) identified 16 potential sites around the Lake Victoria region. Several were eliminated because of capable faults and volcanic hazards, including risks associated with landslides and volcano-triggered tsunamis.

In its assessment, NuPEA, in its January 2023 Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment Report (SESA) for Kenya’s Nuclear programme, ultimately said its site selection team had elected to avoid the Lake Victoria region.

Barely three years later, NuPEA has swept its own report under the carpet as it steps up efforts to pursue construction in an area that its own survey had discredited over safety concerns.

Protest over Nuclear plant in Siaya. [Courtesy]

These questions have continued to fuel unease in Lenya even as the government, the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA), KenGen and political leaders push ahead with plans to establish the country's inaugural nuclear power facility.

But professionals organised in a group dubbed Concerned Citizens of Kenya have vehemently opposed construction of the plant over health concerns. The disposal plans for nuclear wastes that presents greater health risks, are also sending shivers among experts and residents.

The issues include increased cancer risks and long-term damage to the heart, lungs, thyroid, brain, and immune system.

According to the Co-ordinator of the Concerned Citizens of Kenya, Prof Medo Misama, the plant requires a lot of usage of water from Lake Victoria and will also lead to pollution of Lake Victoria, a situation which will predispose residents to health issues related to nuclear waste.

“Lake Victoria is the main source of our livelihood for our people and livestock. Pollution of water in Lake Victoria will have a horrendous impact on our lives as a people and our livestock,” Misama said.

He accused some leaders in Nyanza region of ulterior motives for supporting establishment of the plant.

“The disadvantages of the nuclear plant outweigh its advantages to the people of Nyanza. Truth be told, Kenya is not ready for nuclear technology,” he added.

The Chairman of Concerned Citizens of Kenya, Prof Paul Achola, told the government to rescind its plans of constructing the nuclear plant in Nyanza.

“The by-products of generating nuclear waste are very difficult to handle because they are not biodegradable. Let the government stop that plan,” Prof Achola said.

According to NuPEA, Kenya currently generates about 3,300 megawatts (MW) of electricity from geothermal, which contributes 943.7MW, hydropower at 872.5MW, thermal power at 636.1MW, solar at 442.9MW and wind at 436.1MW.

The agency says Kenya's electricity consumption stands at about 190 kilowatt-hours per capita, compared with a global average of about 2,500 kWh per capita.

For Kenya to achieve the level of industrialisation it aspires to, NuPEA says electricity generation will have to rise substantially, with the country ultimately requiring generation capacity of about 60,000MW to reach consumption levels of at least 3,000kWh per capita.

It is against this backdrop that nuclear energy has been placed at the centre of Kenya's long-term energy plans.

Nuclear power is produced from the atomic nucleus through the controlled fission, or splitting, of heavy elements such as uranium. The heat released during the process produces steam, which drives turbines to generate electricity.

But as the government makes the case for nuclear energy as a solution to Kenya's growing electricity needs, residents of Lenya say their immediate concerns are not simply about megawatts.

For Dennis Alanga, a resident and landowner in Lenya, land remains one of the biggest unresolved issues surrounding the proposed project.

He says the problem is complicated by numerous disputes over land ownership in the area and the informal nature of land succession.

Many parcels, he explains, have been handed down from one generation to another without families completing the formal succession process required to legally transfer ownership.

"We have land succession cases that are still active in court. In the area under discussion, Lenya, we have some land disputes which have been there for over 40 years. I don't understand how the project, which is set to break ground in March next year, will proceed amid all these issues without leading to conflict among the community members," Alanga says.

For another resident, the problem goes beyond land.

He says information about the project has not adequately reached the people who will directly experience its consequences.

"If people who are educated are struggling to understand the details around this project, you can imagine the situation with the common man on the ground. Part of the reason why this project is facing resistance is that most issues concerning this project are discussed in hotels far from the affected area where the community can engage," the resident said.

For the fishing community, their worry about the state of a lake that is already struggling with pollution and has witnessed mass deaths of fish is their more pressing concern.

Tom Guda, National Chairman of the Beach Management Units (BMUs), said fishermen had not been formally engaged by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) or other relevant agencies over the proposed facility, leaving them without critical information on how the project could affect the lake and their livelihoods.

"We have not had any invitation either by NEMA or any agency telling us about this particular facility. So, as National Chairman, what I can say at this point is that there is no information about the current activity going on," Guda said.

Guda said the proposed plant would require huge volumes of water for cooling, raising concerns about how water abstraction and subsequent discharge into Lake Victoria could affect the aquatic ecosystem.

"We are aware that this nuclear facility is going to require huge volumes of water for cooling. We need to be told exactly the amount of water in cubic metres that will be required and the effect it will have on the natural habitat," he said.

Guda warned that any significant reduction in oxygen levels could trigger fish kills, particularly in areas where fish farmers operate cages.

"When you reduce oxygen in Lake Victoria, we are going to have a lot of fish kills because a lot of fish rely heavily on oxygen. Mostly for those who have cages, where fingerlings are concentrated, if you disturb the oxygen concentration, the whole cage can allow the fish to die in a matter of minutes," he said.

The Standard has established that the efforts by the government to install environmental monitoring systems to collect data on weather conditions, lake hydrology and geological and seismic characteristics before further stages of the proposed nuclear power project are at an advanced stage.

The project framework proposes a typical network of about 20 seismic stations, alongside geotechnical investigations involving boreholes, soils and rocks.

Several schools, among them Lenya and Olago, have been identified as potential locations for the seismic stations

Sifu Island Dispensary and Sifu Island Primary School are also among the identified sites. The move, however, casts doubt on the rush by the government to proceed with the project before completing the necessary surveys on the potential impact of the project.

Senior research scientist at the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), Dr Joseph Nyaundi, says the conversation about nuclear energy must not focus only on whether a plant can operate safely but also on how environmental risks will be monitored and managed.

He identifies thermal pollution, radioactive contamination, emergency preparedness and long-term monitoring among the issues that must be addressed.

Thermal pollution, he explains, could occur when heated water associated with the operation of a reactor is discharged into nearby water systems.

An increase in water temperature can reduce dissolved oxygen and affect fish and other aquatic organisms.

"If the temperature of water is raised, oxygen reduces. And so, for the fish and other microorganisms that exist in these water bodies, they will be affected. Even the fish will die," Nyaundi says.

He argues that nuclear facilities must therefore have safeguards including automatic shutdown systems, emergency cooling systems and backup power sources.

"We must have automatic shutdown. We must also have emergency cooling systems," he says.

The plants, he adds, should have emergency generators capable of supporting critical systems in case external electricity supplies fail.

But for Nyaundi, safety should not end with the systems installed by the plant operator.

Such monitoring, he argues, should begin before construction through a comprehensive baseline survey.

Water, air, soil, crops, wildlife and the health of people living around the site should be assessed before the plant is constructed.

That baseline would then provide a reference point against which future changes could be measured.

"Before we even start inspecting this plant, we have to do what we call a baseline survey of the water around the area. Baseline survey of the people, the population, the wildlife, the crops, the soils and even the air," Nyaundi says.

NuPEA Chairman Prof Lawrence Gumbe says the decision to prioritise Siaya was influenced partly by the need to balance the national electricity grid because much of Kenya's power generation is concentrated in the central part of the country.

"Most of our electricity is generated in the centre of the country. Now for you to balance the grid, it is important that you generate also in the east and west, not just the centre," Gumbe explains.

He says Siaya had already been identified as a suitable nuclear site before the current plans were advanced.

"Siaya was very much part of the programme even before. It's one of the sites which was identified and it is one of the sites which was looked at under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency," he says.

Gumbe says the site has undergone studies for years under the IAEA's milestone approach, which guides countries developing their first nuclear power plants.

He therefore rejects claims that the government is rushing the project, arguing that the project is proceeding as planned.

For the political class, however, the project has turned into a campaign tool to lure residents to back President William Ruto’s reelection bid. Nearly the entire top leadership of the ODM party, led by party leader Oburu Oginga, has been at the forefront in rallying residents to back the project.

"I wish I knew comes later. The project we're discussing here is a project not for Bondo alone; it's not even for Siaya County alone. It's a project for the development of Kenya. Having it here is a privilege to us because it will be a game changer for communities around this region," Oburu says.

He says the plant could bring employment opportunities, cleaner energy and investment in health, education and other social amenities through corporate social responsibility programmes.

"The nuclear power plant is meant to benefit us in terms of employment, clean energy, corporate social responsibility in health, education, among others," he says.

NuPEA CEO Justus Wabuyabo says the agency understands the concerns and is continuing to engage residents.

"We'll take these engagements to the people deep inside the community. All we're asking for is a conducive environment for such engagements," he says.

 

Report by Harold Odhiambo, Rogers Otiso, Clinton Ambujo and Isaiah Gwengi