Inside ODM's billions fight to succeed Raila Odinga

The late ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga. [File, Standard]

The fight for the soul of the late Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) may appear, on the surface, to be a scramble to inherit his vast political following. Beneath it, however, lies a discreet but deepening war over control of the party’s vast financial empire.

The Sunday Standard has established that the financial muscle of the 20-year-old party — alongside control of its entrenched structures — has become a major flashpoint in a supremacy struggle that now threatens to tear ODM apart.

What makes the ODM succession unusually combustible is that, unlike most parties, its founder did not merely command loyalty — he centralised power, symbolism and resources around his persona. Raila Odinga was at once the party’s ideological anchor, chief mobiliser and ultimate arbiter.

His exit has therefore created not just a leadership vacuum, but a scramble to redefine who legitimately speaks for the party, controls its purse, and inherits its political soul. In that vacuum, money has become the most concrete substitute for authority.

While ODM’s leadership and the wider Jaramogi Oginga Odinga family have publicly framed the dispute as an ideological disagreement, insiders say the true artery of the conflict lies in the enormous wealth the party commands.

That wealth, estimated at more than Sh13 billion, represents a formidable war chest and is seen as critical to future political success.

Analysts corroborate this view, arguing that ODM’s financial strength has become a key driver of the internal feuds that have crystallised into two dominant factions within the party — and a visible split within the broader Odinga family.

The sheer scale of ODM’s resources gives the internal contest national significance. With billions under its control, the party is not merely an opposition vehicle but one of the most financially empowered political institutions outside government.

Control of such a machine determines who funds grassroots mobilisation, who influences nominations, and who dictates alliances. In effect, whoever captures ODM’s structures controls not just a party, but a political economy — one capable of shaping electoral outcomes far beyond Luo Nyanza.

In recent days, party stalwarts have intensified efforts to calm tensions. ODM party leader Oburu Odinga is expected to meet members of the Jaramogi family today at Kang’o ka Jaramogi in Bondo, amid growing unease over the management of the political empire Raila Odinga left behind.

Multiple ODM insiders told the Sunday Standard that an ongoing scramble for party assets is fuelling the open turmoil within the party. They say this has been masked as a leadership contest pitting Oburu against his niece, Winnie Odinga, both of whom have publicly differed over the party’s future direction.

“ODM is wealthy. Whoever controls its structures controls everything — including its vast financial base — and that is key to political success,” said a senior ODM official.

“On the surface, this looks like a fight for party leadership. But at its core, it is about dominance — including within the family,” he added.

Another source said ideological differences within the Odinga family mask deeper disagreements over control of the party’s financial empire.

Observers believe it is this wealth that is at the heart of the fractures threatening to reduce one of Kenya’s most formidable political machines into a shell.

“There is a perception that the faction led by Oburu wants to block other members of Raila’s family from ODM structures, and that has become a major source of tension,” said the source. Insiders estimate ODM’s assets at over Sh13 billion — a figure expected to rise sharply ahead of next year’s General Election, when the party anticipates substantial revenue from nomination fees, arrears paid by aspirants, and new lifetime memberships.

In 2022, ODM valued its assets at about Sh10 billion. Since then, the figure has grown through member contributions, donations, and allocations from the Political Parties Fund.

In the current financial year, the party expects to receive approximately Sh421 million from the Fund, up from Sh256 million in the 2024/2025 financial year. This does not include contributions from elected leaders and lifetime members.

All ODM officials elected or nominated on the party ticket are required to pay monthly subscriptions, scaled to their positions.

Parliamentary records show ODM has 86 MPs in the National Assembly and 20 Senators. Each is required to remit Sh20,000 monthly, generating about Sh2.12 million.

The party also has 13 governors, each contributing Sh50,000 monthly, adding roughly Sh650,000.

IEBC data shows ODM had 268 elected Members of County Assemblies (MCAs) as of August 2022, excluding nominated MCAs. While party rules set their monthly contribution at Sh3,000, several current and former MCAs told The Standard they pay Sh5,000. Cumulatively, monthly contributions exceed Sh4 million — a figure that increases dramatically during election periods, when nomination fees range between Sh25,000 and Sh1 million.

During the by-elections held in November last year, ODM set nomination fees at Sh250,000 for parliamentary seats and Sh125,000 for youth candidates. In constituencies such as Kasipul, where five aspirants contested, the party raised about Sh1 million.

ODM also collects annual fees from lifetime members, set at Sh5,000, alongside regular donations from well-wishers.

In counties where ODM holds a majority in the assembly, contributions are deducted directly from MCAs’ salaries and remitted to the party. Those in arrears are required to clear all outstanding balances before being cleared to contest nominations.

“In 2022, I had to pay nearly Sh300,000 in arrears and nomination fees before I was allowed to contest,” said a former Vihiga MCA.

Lawyer Clifford Obiero acknowledged ODM’s financial strength but downplayed money as the primary driver of the dispute.

“ODM is a rich party. The current wrangles are more about power and influence than money. No one wants to feel disadvantaged,” he said.

However, political analyst David Owino and lawyer Moses Ombayo argue that control of party finances has become central to the struggle.

At the centre is the leadership question, which insiders say could pit Oburu Odinga against other members of the Odinga family, including Mama Ida Odinga and Raila Odinga’s children.

Owino notes that ODM, like other major parties, relies heavily on allocations from the Political Parties Fund, disbursed annually based on performance in the previous election.

“ODM commands substantial public funding due to its strength in Parliament and county assemblies. Whoever controls the party machinery influences how those funds are prioritised and spent,” he said.

He warned that prolonged infighting could weaken ODM financially at a critical time.

“If the succession fight escalates, legislators and supporters may withhold remittances as leverage. That could quickly strain party operations, from grassroots mobilisation to staff salaries,” Owino cautioned.

Owino also pointed to speculation that some of the wrangles could be strategic, aimed at facilitating cooperation or alignment with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), where access to State power eases fundraising.

Lawyer Moses Ombayo framed the dispute as both political and legal, noting that under the Political Parties Act, party resources are held in trust by duly elected officials.

“Any attempt to seize control of party funds outside ODM’s constitutional structures would be illegal and subject to challenge,” Ombayo said, warning that parallel control could end up before the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal.

At the family level, divisions are increasingly visible. Winnie Odinga has positioned herself as seeking to rescue her father’s party, while Oburu Odinga is widely seen as pursuing rapprochement with President William Ruto ahead of his re-election bid.

Oburu’s recent political moves have prominently featured his sons, Jaoko and Elijah Oburu, with Elijah emerging as a close confidant who has accompanied him to several events.

Last week, Oburu and his family sought blessings from preacher Dr Washington Ogonyo Ngende as they chart their political path amid rising tensions.

Additional reporting by Brian Kisanji and Josphat Thiongo