Kenya braces for El Nino fury as floods threaten massive destruction

360 Degrees Estate in Katani, Machakos County marooned by floods after heavy downpour. [File, Standard]

After the release of the October-November -December forecast, focus now shifts to coutry's preparedness to protect lives and property as the El Nino rainfall threatens to cause devastating disasters across the country.

Most regions are expected to receive above normal rainfall with North Eastern, Coast, central Kenya and parts of the country expected to receive rains five times heavier than normal seasonal rainfall.

Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River are predicted to be totally submerged by floods with some areas expected to receive up to 500 millimeters of rainfall.

The forecast shows that over 1.5 million Kenyans will be severely affected by floods, an estimated 500,000 could be displaced by floods while another 450, could b e affected by mudslides, rockfalls and landslides.

According to Col Rtd David Samoei, Director National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), major transport corridors could be affected, potentially disrupting movement of people and goods through December, including during the festive season.

Among the roads identified as vulnerable are the Nairobi-Garissa-Wajir-Mandera highway, Garissa-Tana River-Lamu road, Isiolo-Wajir road, Kericho-Kisumu road, Nairobi-Narok road and the Garissa-Habaswein-Wajir road.

Samoei said the disruption of major roads could isolate communities, particularly in northern Kenya, where some areas could become inaccessible by road with the learning and health sector also listed as sectors that will be hit by the rains.

"With roads in parts of northern Kenya likely to be cut off, the Government is preparing to rely on air transport to reach isolated communities.County Commissioners have been asked to ensure airstrips in their respective counties are serviceable," said the NDOC Director.

Helicopters could be deployed to deliver food, mosquito nets and medical supplies to areas that become inaccessible by road.

The Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) has also been requested to remain on standby for casualty evacuation and search-and-rescue missions throughout the OND season.

He further warned that the heavy rains could also damage critical infrastructure, including water systems, power lines, communication networks, roads, bridges and railway lines.

With the enhanced rains, the NDOC is also projecting water-related accidents, including boats capsizing, vehicles being swept away by fast-moving water and drowning incidents.

As rains and floods intensify, Samoei said they are projecting that residential houses could be submerged, while dams are expected to burst.

Notably, he stated that building collapses remain among the risks authorities are monitoring, particularly in major urban centres such as Nairobi.

The Government is also preparing for possible disruption of learning, with schools in flood-prone areas expected to face challenges during the October and November period, when examinations are scheduled.

Samoei said counties had been advised against using schools as internally displaced persons (IDP) camps because doing so could interfere with learning and examinations.

Instead, counties have been asked to identify alternative sites for temporary shelters by September.

"Learning might be disrupted and exams affected in October and November. Counties are advised not to use schools as camps for the Internally Displaced People (IDPs), and need to identify camps by September to avoid disrupting school programs," Samoei said.

The Ministry of Education has also been asked to identify schools likely to be affected by flooding and make alternative arrangements for learners.

To strengthen the response, Samoei said the multi-agency emergency response team  has laid out emergency preparedness plans to respond to eventualities.

Among the measures put in place include pre-positioning of search and rescue teams in areas identified as hotspots. Boats and other rescue equipment will be deployed in Garissa, Gamba and the Coast region, as well as Baringo, Naivasha, Kisumu, Turkana and Busia.

IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) warned that the rains will greatly affected food security in most of the countries in the region citing crop failure resulting from decreased rainfall in the current June-July-August-September season, and an expected post -harvest losses when the rains come.

"Food insecurity situation in the region is dire. According to the caseloads from Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, IPC, the caseload is very high. In six countries we have 24 million people who are in IPC phase 3 and above. This number is already very high, and it could be even very high," said Oliver Kipkogei, a regional agro-meteorologist and climate researcher at the ICPAC.

As the region transition from one extreme season of dry conditions to wet conditions, Kipkogei called on the governments to put in place anticipatory actions to build farmers' resilience.

In Kenya for example, he noted that regions like North Rift and western Kenya may not have bumper harvest during the harvesting season in September, october.

"The Ministry of Agriculture actually estimates that production will be less than 30 per cent or more of what is actually expected in a normal year," he added.

To mitigate the food security crisis, NDOC announced that the relevant Government programmes had been asked to ensure sufficient relief food is available for displaced and affected populations by the end of September.

Authorities are also urging businesses in areas that could be cut off, particularly in Wajir and Mandera, to prepare for possible disruptions in supply chains.

"Business community should restock essential commodities and maintain adequate fuel supplies for up to four months in areas at risk of isolation," he urged.

According to NDoC, there will be a tabletop preparedness exercise on August 28 in Nakuru to test the readiness of counties and response agencies.

The exercise will assess coordination and response capacity before the rains intensify.The Kenya Meteorology Services is expected to issue the national climate outlook next week on Wednesday as part of a wider public sensitisation campaign on the expected weather conditions.

"The county governments have been advised to conduct a major exercise to unclog drainage systems and inspect buildings in major cities across the country. Citizens are requested to avoid damping of garbage on drainage and storm water canals," Samoei urged.

The health sector is expected to suffer a serious crisis during the October-December rainfall season, with a “Super El Niño” scenario expected to bring a combination of flooding, extreme heat creating conditions favourable for outbreaks of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, cholera, typhoid and other water- and vector-borne diseases, while worsening malnutrition and heat-related illnesses.

The Eastern Africa Scenario-Based Climate-Health Advisories for October-December 2026 cautioned that under the above-normal rainfall scenario, stagnant water by flooding is expected to provide extensive breeding grounds for mosquitoes, potentially driving an increase in malaria, including in highland areas.

The same conditions could fuel Rift Valley Fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease that can affect both livestock and humans.

Flooding would also raise the risk of waterborne diseases like cholera when floodwaters overwhelm latrines and contaminate shallow wells and other water sources.

Children under five are particularly at risk of severe illness and death from diarrhoeal diseases with the health advisories calling for early action including pre-positioning of diarrhoeal disease and malaria medical supplies , strengthening disease surveillance at least three weeks before the anticipated peak of flooding.

Crop failures and livestock losses would reduce household access to food, increasing the risk of acute malnutrition with children , pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers expected to be among those most vulnerable.

Women and girls are expected to face gender and sexual based violence due to their because of responsibilities involving water collection, food preparation and caregiving

ICPAC urged member states to enhance community Disease Surveillance, deploy mobile health teams to areas that wiare likely to be cut off, stree-test health facilities by conducting drills, ensure stocking of relevant medical supplies among other measures.