Ruto's university mess amid record intake

President William Ruto is facing the biggest test yet of his university funding model as the institutions prepare to admit the largest number of government-sponsored students while grappling with a funding crisis, a sharp decline in student numbers, and debts approaching Sh100 billion.

The Kenya Universities and Colleges Central Placement Service (KUCCPS) is today expected to release placement results for the 2025 KCSE class, with a record 270,715 candidates qualifying for degree programmes, the highest number in more than a decade.

But an analysis by The Standard shows the funding model  is already running billions of shillings below its financing needs even before the new students report to campus.

Budget estimates tabled in Parliament show universities will require Sh47.36 billion in the 2026/27 financial year to finance students under the student-centered funding model.

However, the government has allocated only Sh30.8 billion, leaving a major funding gap of Sh16.56 billion.

The allocation means universities will receive only 65 per cent of the money required to fund students under the model.

Parliamentary budget documents warn that the deficit will further increase the government's unpaid scholarship obligations.

"This gap will increase the pending bill for scholarships from Sh22.26 billion in the 2025/26 financial year to Sh38.52 billion in the 2026/27 financial year," the report tabled in Parliament states.

The funding gap, however, is not new. Similar shortfalls were recorded in the 2024 and 2025 financial years, with the government failing to fully finance the student-centred funding model.

In fact, the model has only been fully funded once since its introduction, in 2023.

In 2025, the Ministry of Education required Sh29.55 billion to  fully finance students under the model but received only Sh18.42 billion after a supplementary allocation.

That meant the government financed just 62.3 per cent of the requirement, leaving a funding gap of Sh11.13 billion.The financial strain comes as universities experience an unprecedented drop in student numbers four years after the introduction of the new funding model.

Fresh figures contained in the Ministry of Education's Education Sector Report 2026/27–2028/29 show university enrolment has fallen to a seven-year low.

Student numbers dropped from a record 680,768 in the 2023/24 academic year to 547,092 in 2024/25, representing a decline of 133,676 learners in just one year.

The decline comes despite a steady increase in the number of students qualifying for university admission.

In the report, the Ministry of Education attributes the decline largely to the rollout of the new university funding and placement system, arguing that more students are now opting to join Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions.

"The decline was largely attributed to the introduction of new university funding and placement models which have redirected some students towards Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions," the report states.

An analysis by The Standard shows the decline marks the first major contraction in university enrolment after years of sustained growth.

Enrolment increased from 542,005 students in the 2018/19 academic year to 547,133 in 2019/20 before rising to 571,510 in 2020/21.

The upward trend continued as student numbers climbed to 621,231 in 2021/22, increased further to 638,479 in 2022/23 and peaked at 680,768 in 2023/24.

The trajectory, however, changed dramatically in 2024/25 when enrolment plunged to 547,092 students.

The 19.6 per cent decline effectively erased four years of enrolment growth and pushed university numbers back to levels last seen around the 2019/20 academic year.

The decline also coincides with the exit of the last cohort of students admitted under the Differentiated Unit Cost (DUC) funding model.

While presenting the 2026/27 budget estimates to Parliament, Higher Education Principal Secretary Beatrice Inyangala said only students pursuing Engineering and Medicine remain under the old funding model.

That means the overwhelming majority of university students are now financed under the student-centered funding model introduced in 2023.

The figures have renewed questions over whether affordability challenges and uncertainty surrounding the funding model are discouraging students from joining universities despite the increasing number qualifying for admission.

The consequences of under-funding have affected the public universities, with the institutions collectively carrying debts of more than Sh100 billion.

Among the most indebted institutions are Egerton University (Sh25.5 billion), University of Nairobi (Sh16.99 billion), Technical University of Kenya (Sh14.13 billion), Kenyatta University (Sh12.79 billion) and Moi University (Sh10.38 billion).

Higher Education Principal Secretary Beatrice Inyangala told the National Assembly Education Committee that although the number of technically insolvent universities has reduced from 22 to 11, continued under funding could reverse the gains.

"We previously had 22 technically insolvent institutions but that number has now improved to 11. However, if under-funding persists, more universities risk falling into insolvency," she said.

The debt consists of unpaid statutory deductions, including Pay As You Earn (PAYE), pension contributions, supplier bills and outstanding staff obligations such as payments owed to part-time lecturers.