Survey: Majority of MPs will not be re-elected

Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Tom Wolf

A new survey has painted an uncertain picture for Members of Parliament who have defected and seek to defend their positions in the coming August elections.

In the latest release by Ipsos, at least 42 per cent of Kenyans will not be re-electing their respective MPs.

And those who will be worst hit are the legislators linked to or have moved to the Jubilee administration but were formally of the Coalition of Reforms and Democracy (CORD).

According to the release, 58 per cent of Cord supporters will not vote back any leader who is linked to or has defected to the ruling administration.

But if the leader remained steadfast in Cord or the National Super Alliance (NASA) which is the new opposition outfit and contests in the same, then they have a 61 per cent chance of being re-elected.

"Only slightly more than one-third (39 per cent) of all respondents who could identify their MPs by name believe that their return to parliament is "very likely"," read the survey.

Across the political divide, 46 per cent of Jubilee supporters will not be voting back their leaders (against 39 per cent who will re-elect them) compared to Cord's 43 per cent who are likely to re-elect their MPs and 37 per cent will not.

And when Kenyans were asked why they think leaders defected, 44 per cent said it was for their own selfish interest with 22 per cent stating development.

But across the political divide, while 57 per cent of Jubilee supporters claim the move of opposition MPs decamping to the ruling administration is for development reasons, 59 per cent of Cord supporters' claim otherwise citing greed and personal benefit.

According to the survey released yesterday where 2,057 Kenyans were polled, 60 per cent of Central residents, 50 per cent of North Eastern, 44 per cent of Western and 45 per cent of Rift Valley will not vote back their incumbent MPs.