Ruto revives Uhuru's ghost amid political dilemma ahead of 2027

There is trouble in paradise. The incumbent who habitually presents himself as the master of the game is increasingly playing defence on several boards, all at once. Something is curiously wrong with President William Ruto’s political behaviour.

He speaks as though victory in 2027 is a concluded matter. He boasts of popularity, enormous financial resources that nobody can match, and sterling political organisational abilities. He ridicules his opponents. They are stupid, brainless, and with no agenda. He assures the country that they cannot defeat him.

Yet, at the same time, he behaves like a man who knows the political ground beneath him is sinking. This is a huge paradox. Ruto is supremely confident, yet he behaves increasingly anxious.

All right, an incumbent does not necessarily become anxious because he believes he will lose. Believe, is the word. He does not believe that he will lose. Yet, is he beginning to recognise that the victory he has previously imagined was straightforward, is now conditional to so many variables?

When the incumbent is spending so much vocal and mental energy on attacking a retired president, all is certainly not well. Ruto is firing at Uhuru Kenyatta from the hip. Uhuru is financing his opponents, he says, angrily. Unless proven, this allegation should be taken as political, and nothing more. The allegation is very revealing, nonetheless. It is an acknowledgment by Ruto that Uhuru has the capacity to annihilate his second term dream, should he throw support behind a united Opposition against him.

Uhuru can become the most critical pivot around which a Ruto defeat could build itself. Is Ruto trying to attack this possibility before its day? In doing so, is he blinded to the inherent political dangers? Each time he turns Uhuru into an enemy, he reminds Mt Kenya, especially, that there is unfinished business between the incumbent and the retired president. He gives Uhuru renewed political relevance. We say in Emanyulia that when you attack a ghost, you give it visibility.

Yet the problem is deeper than Uhuru. The Ol Kalou by-election was a message to Ruto. The Mountain is gone. Two years ago, Ruto believed he could substitute Kithure Kindiki for Rigathi Gachagua, and the game would go on, as if it was football. It turns out that it was a mistake, and a terrible one too.

The man he impeached has become a living goblin, gobbling him alive in the Mountain. The one he brought in has failed to gain traction. His soprano is dry, in the chest and in the throat.

Ruto is believed to be toying with the dream of yet another substitution in the Mountain. So does he bring in another player from the Mountain, or does he throw the Mountain into the trashcan and move on, altogether? President Ruto’s dilemma is worse than the proverbial devil and deep sea. He has a number of options, though. For each gain he makes, however, he loses something. If he discards the Mountain altogether, he galvanises it into a live volcano, whose political eruption spells doom.

Moreover, he must find a replacement from another part of the country. For a while, he thought that would be Raila Odinga’s ODM, everywhere in the country. But ODM has disintegrated, despite Gladys Wanga’s loud avowals, and Oburu Oginga’s whimpers, to the contrary.

And a limping ODM remnant is asking Ruto for the deputy president’s position and a half of the government, in exchange for support. How does Ruto give this to a limping remnant? Where does it leave him with the rest of the country?

But Ruto is also sending signals to the Western Abaluhya. Two problems here. First is the rise of Edwin Sifuna as a natural darling of these people, and many others across the country. Even if Ruto names Musalia Mudavadi, Wycliffe Oparanya, or Moses Wetang’ula, or whomever from Western, his running mate, his goose is cooked in this land of poultry; provided that the name Edwin Sifuna is on the presidential ballot paper.

It matters not if Ruto and his troops will shift State House to Kakamega from now on. Their eggs are bad. Their predicament is heightened by the fact that their dud investment in Western will meanwhile alienate other territories in the rest of the country.

So, where does the big man turn? Luo Nyanza seems the most promising option. He is best advised to camp there. But what does it bring? What does it do to the rest of the country? It is a nightmare to be William Ruto. Even attacking Uhuru cannot resolve your crises.

-Dr Muluka is a strategic communications adviser.