An unstable region: Four conflicts East Africa must end for stability

An image collage of Presidents Paul Kagame (Rwanda-right), Felix Tshisekedi (DRC-far left) and Sudan RSF Commander Mohamed Dagalo. Tensions are high in East Africa as countries grapple with internal strife and cross-border conflicts, largely driven by resource battles and unresolved historical grievances. Wars in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), political instability in Sudan and South Sudan, and infighting within Ethiopia's Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) threaten the region's stability. Without urgent intervention, East Africa risks following the path of West African nations embroiled in prolonged conflicts. DRC Conflict In 2022, the M23 rebel group resurfaced in eastern DRC, challenging the Congolese military. The government has long accused Rwanda of backing the rebels, who have advanced toward the capital after seizing the cities of Goma and Bukavu. Rwanda denies the allegations, but a United Nations report found Rwandan soldiers fighting alongside M23 rebels against Congolese forces. On Tuesday this week, Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a ceasefire-something both the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) unsuccessfully negotiated. "The Heads of State reaffirmed the commitment of all parties to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire," read a joint statement by Presidents Paul Kagame (Rwanda), Felix Tshisekedi (DRC) and their mediator, Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Despite playing a major role in the conflict, M23 was excluded from the talks and continued its offensive, capturing the mining town of Walikale just a day after the ceasefire was announced. The war has taken a heavy toll. DRC says it has lost 7,000 people, with many more displaced and subjected to war crimes. The conflict has also strained Rwanda's diplomatic ties. The US and European Union have sanctioned some Rwandan military officials over human rights violations. Rwanda has cut ties with Belgium, its former colonial ruler, and tensions with South Africa have escalated after Kagame and Cyril Ramaphosa exchanged barbs on social media. Meanwhile, DRC remains unstable and is reportedly considering a minerals-for-security deal with the US. Sudan's civil war On April 11, 2019, Sudan President Omar al-Bashir was ousted, plunging the country into military rule. A power struggle soon followed, splitting the leadership into two rival factions. On April 15, 2023, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan retained control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), while his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo-known as Hemedti-led the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The two factions have been battling for control of Sudan, with intense fighting in the capital, Khartoum. Thousands of civilians have been killed, and the humanitarian crisis deepens. Efforts to broker peace have faltered. Last month, the RSF announced a parallel government following a meeting in Nairobi, complicating mediation efforts. Kenya, long viewed as a neutral peace broker, is now seen as favoring one side, weakening its credibility in ongoing negotiations. Ethiopia's Tigray infighting Ethiopia has remained largely peaceful since the Tigray War ended in November 2022, but fresh tensions are emerging. While the previous war pitted the TPLF against the Ethiopian government, the latest unrest stems from internal divisions within the TPLF itself. A dissident faction is challenging the group's leadership, which currently governs the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. Last week, the BBC reported that the dissidents had seized key government offices in Mekelle, the regional capital. The attack has raised fears of renewed civil war as Ethiopia struggles to recover from the devastating three-year conflict. Somalia's threat Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud survived an attack on his convoy on Tuesday this week while traveling to assess his troops' readiness against al-Shabaab. The assault, which occurred in the capital, Mogadishu, proved the persistent volatility in the Horn of Africa. Despite years of international peacekeeping efforts, al-Shabaab remains active. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) withdrew in March 2022 after 15 years, giving way to the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), whose mandate expired in December 2024. It has since been replaced by the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Yet, Somalia remains insecure, with al-Shabaab continuing its insurgency. The cost of war The conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda, and the DRC are destabilising East Africa. Neighboring countries fear spillover violence, while the economic toll mounts. Military interventions have drained resources, and lives continue to be lost. South Africa recently withdrew its troops from DRC after a public outcry over soldiers killed in combat. Now, the region must act swiftly to end these conflicts or risk deeper instability.

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