Issues ignored as voting trends remain same

By OSCAR OBONYO

Even as uncertainty hangs over the election date, campaigns for the presidential seat have gained momentum and like in previous instances, Kenyans may be persuaded to vote out, rather than vote in somebody.

Already, the trend has picked up and this year focus may shift – yet again – from issues to individuals. Head of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Nairobi Adams Oloo warns of dangers inherent in voting for individuals on account of their identity – their tribe, religion and where they come from – as opposed to ideas.

"Where there is a battle between identity and idea, especially in the Kenyan instance, identity always wins. Such a triumph, if it happens, is only short-lived to the individual political schemers but a major fraud to the general electorate," he says.

Collective effort

Oloo attributes the trend to collective energies of presidential aspirants focused on the incumbent: "It is driven by the simplistic idea that, ‘we all want that seat, but to get it we must first smoke out the person currently occupying it’."

Kenyatta University political science lecturer Joseph Magutt is worried that this political culture "is getting so wired in our DNA that we can only cast a protest vote against an individual but not for one because of his policies".

"We are at nascent stage where people are fixated with individuals and not issues. With this kind of approach, if rivals perceive you as a threat they simply whip up support of the people to fix you at the ballot," says Magutt.

Since the second phase of multi-party politics in 1992, presidential polls have been characterised more by the drive to drive out an incumbent from office rather than place an individual with impeccable credentials at the helm of power.

From the chants of "Moi Must Go!" by the retired President’s formidable challenger in 1992, Kenneth Matiba, presidential campaigns have been reduced to a simplistic affair of hounding the incumbent out of office. Although euphoric, the trend has curiously never succeeded – at least on paper. Although most Kenyans voted against Moi in 1992, for instance, he still scrapped through with a paltry 36.3 per cent vote ahead of Kenneth Matiba (26.0), Mwai Kibaki (19.5) and Oginga Odinga (17.5). Then, the Constitution only placed emphasis on a win with simple majority.

Five years later in 1997, Moi romped home again, this time with an improved tally of 40.6 per cent ahead of Kibaki (31.4), Raila (11.6), Michael Wamalwa (8.4) and Charity Kaluki Ngilu (7.8). In 2002, the anti-Moi forces regrouped again, and this time succeeded to elbow aside Kanu’s Uhuru Kenyatta, whom they referred to as Moi’s "project".

Similar efforts in 2007 to end Kibaki’s rule flopped. Although ODM’s Raila staged an electrifying campaign, with some claiming he won the poll, he was never sworn in as President. In the end Kibaki controversially retained the presidency and Raila settled for the position of Prime Minister in a shared Government.

With Kibaki not defending the seat in accordance with constitutional provisions, Raila is facing the barbs in the name of an incumbent. But Oloo believes this time it is going to be a different ball game.

"Now the incumbent also eats into the opposition – courtesy of the Grand Coalition Government arrangement. All political players can claim credit for the Government’s achievements, including enactment of new Constitution, or take the flak for its failure on other fronts," he says.

Ethnic card

However, Magutt says the ethnic card might still come into play: "Ethno-politics still informs the way we vote and since the method has been experimented before with a fair degree of success, chances are we shall experience the same voting pattern as already being witnessed."

For such a game plan to materialise, Oloo argues there must a political figure around whom the rest can be glued together. Such an individual must be a central driver and a selfless leader with a solid home-base support. Raila, he says, perfectly fitted this bill in 2002. He was equally ready to give up his quest for the top seat in favour of Kibaki and turn over his ballot numbers to the Narc candidate.

"While G-7 group has succeeded in uniting against Raila, they lack that all-important glue. In my view only (Eldoret North MP, William) Ruto can effectively play the glue role. But is he willing to give up his bid and endorse somebody else, and can his core supporters in Rift valley quickly switch to a candidate of his choice?" queries Oloo.

In the meantime, Ngunjiri Wambugu, chief executive officer of Change Associates, has kicked of a campaign to check ethnic based voting patterns. His approach is to request political heavyweights to engage directly with voters from perceived rival communities.

Under the arrangement, already Raila has met members of the Kikuyu community, most who are believably hostile towards his candidature.

The group has extended similar invitation to Uhuru, to meet members of the Luo community at forums in Kisumu. "First, we want to confront the cultural stereotypes, about the Luo, Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin and others, so that we openly talk about the same and address the misinformation by the politicians," says Ngunjiri.

Noting that Kenyans are believers of quality service, as demonstrated by their quest for a particular lawyer, doctor or car mechanic, to fix their problem, irrespective of tribe, Ngunjiri believes he has a starting point.