ODM after Raila: Cracks formed before his death may rupture as Ruto seeks to have say

ODM leader Raila Odinga with other party leaders during celebrations to mark ODM 20 years in existence. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard] Raila Odinga's exit is giving the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) its biggest test yet. ODM is on the weighing scales of organized leadership. It is a test of institutional stability versus personal charisma. Will the Orange party survive without Odinga? The task before ODM evokes whispers of histories of great edifices. It is the history of invaluable lessons that later generations either don't know about, or lessons they fail to take if they know the story. Raila Odinga was a charismatic leader who centralized power around himself. He built a formidable political machine through personal brilliance. He consolidated authority in that environment to the extent that he became synonymous with the machine. The machine was ODM. When Musalia Mudavadi, then ODM deputy party leader, desired in 2012, to run for President on the ODM ticket, Odinga's acolytes and hangers-on scoffed at him. Among them were the late Jakoyo Midiwo and Otieno Kajwang, who led a choir of self-seekers and flatterers. They told Mudavadi that ODM was Raila Odinga, and Odinga was ODM. They mocked and taunted him. They advised him to find his own party. This was a delicate season for the Orange party. Raila's co-founders were in high flight. William Ruto was the first to bolt. He accused Odinga of dictatorship. Additionally, Ruto also complained about being before the International Criminal Court at The Hague, following the post-election violence (PEV) of 2007. Ruto accused Odinga of doing nothing to save him from the trial and the risks ahead. This was despite the fact that Odinga, as Prime Minister, together with President Mwai Kibaki, had bent backwards over, urging Parliament to set up a local tribunal to address the PEV matter. Parliament spurned their pleas. Ruto captained the frustration of the effort. Yet, he now scampered from ODM, taking along almost the entire Rift Valley troops. Others followed. Omingo Magara, Joseph Nyagah, Najib Balala, and finally Mudavadi. They left Odinga and ODM on the limp. In 2007, they had all sought the ODM presidential ticket in party primaries. Odinga won. Balala had pulled out in his favour before the voting began, at the Kasarani auditorium. But now Odinga was alone. Colleagues in the ODM high presidium that he called the Pentagon had fled. High and dry, ahead of a difficult presidential election that the Supreme Court moved from 2012 to 2013, Odinga had a tough challenge. To stem the flight tide, and to strengthen the party. Was his party losing its magic? He elected to strengthen his mojo and personal hold on ODM. Solidifying party organs, branches and instruments threatened to make his grip on ODM rather precarious. The Ababu Namwamba led ODM-Reloaded effort of 2012, accordingly, solidified not the party, but Odinga's personal image and his grip on the party. In Odinga's death today, ODM evokes historical lessons on the risks and perils of personalized institutions. No matter how strong they may be during the lifetime of the founders, they flounder when he leaves. In many instances, they die. Africa is replete with rich examples. From Mansa Musa of Mali in the 14th Century, to Osei Tutu of Asante Kingdom in the 1700s. And from Mzilikazi of the Ndebele to Samori Toure of Wassoulou Empire in the 19th Century, and to the great Shaka Zulu. It is the same story of brilliant organizers and formidable strategists who built amazing institutions. Yet, the edifices failed to outlive them. When they left the scene, the empires collapsed. They were buried with them. Will Raila Odinga's ODM Empire survive him? Fissures and fractures began showing when he was still around. They played themselves largely around the vexed matter of joining President Ruto's UDA-Kenya Kwanza. Young Turks, led by the intrepid Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, outright rejected the extra-legal union with Ruto. Without taking on the party leader frontally, they have nonetheless been plain spoken. This is likely to be the entry point for contestation in the post-Odinga season. Already, the party's steering committee has named Odinga's elder brother, Dr Oburu Oginga, the Acting party leader. Oburu is a strong votary for the union with Ruto. Indications are that he will remain in that space. He will attempt to rally the party around himself and President Ruto. Ruto himself is likely to lend moral and material support to Oburu's corner of ODM. He may try to make good the flippant caution he made to Sifuna, earlier on, that he could cause the ODM SG to be expelled from the party. But apart from questions about the broad-based government, there are matters of personal ambition. Raila did not build a political party with clear institutional succession systems and mechanisms. Throughout ODM's 20 years, party positions have been doled out according to his wish. All national party offices have reflected the party leader's wishes. Even the arrival to the top by Oburu broadly reflects this reality. Oburu has been a member of the five-person ODM board of trustees. Other members were Raila, Prof. Anyang' Nyong'o, Tim Bosire, and Agnes Zani. The role of the trustees is to protect and save the party during crises. Before Raila's demise, ODM never faced a crisis of the magnitude that would call for the intervention of the board of trustees. The looming power struggle in the party today, however, invites the board to be on the qui vive. ODM faces both internal challenges and external pressures as vultures circle it. The Ruto State is the foremost predator slavering for ODM's flesh. Will Ruto eat ODM? Internally, will it become a dynastic entity that belongs to the Odinga family? While Oburu has legitimate claim to the topmost position in the party, like everyone else, replacing his late brother gives the optic of a dynastic and monarchical entity. His detractors and competitors will want to flag this concern. Wole Soyinka famously said that if the snail finds splinters in its shell, it changes houses. The Young Turks that are Sifuna, Babu Owino, and Caleb Amisi, among others, have one foot out already. Their affinity to their departed leader was the strongest glue that held them to the party. Yet, despite this loyalty, they have often stated that should push come to shove, they will relocate. Should the contestable issues in ODM morph into splinters, they will easily be among the first to leave. Apart from ideological conflict, the Young Turks are also worried that they could be denied the ODM ticket. But next to that is the wider relevance of that ticket in the post Raila dispensation. Will they get the ticket? And what is the weight of the ODM ticket without the Raila Odinga magic? Babu Owino has been anxious over what was the growing amity between the late Odinga and Nairobi governor, Johnson Sakaja. Indications were that Sakaja was Raila's new man for Nairobi. Babu is eyeing the governor's seat. The friendship between his departed leader and Sakaja has given him sleepless nights. It has partly driven his recent slant towards internal dissent. Should Babu now rest easy, or is the danger still there? He needs to know why Raila drifted towards Sakaja, and if the incentive is transferable to ODM's new leadership. Yet, the Young Turks may want to take the party themselves; to wrestle it from the old guard? They may probably only consider bolting out if their present fears are not addressed. Or if new ones emerge, or both. Grabbing the party would be their best option, however. Then there are those who were parachuted out of the succession mainstream. They were given assignments in the Ruto government. Wycliffe Oparanya, CS for SMEs and Cooperatives and Hassan Joho, CS for Mining and Blue Economy, were deputy party leaders before they resigned to take up positions in the cabinet. Will they want to reclaim space in ODM, or have they now burnt their ODM boats? Are they now solidly in Ruto's UDA, body, soul and spirit? If they should return to ODM, they will complicate the succession. On 28 February 2014, Joho fell short of taking over leadership from Raila, but the now infamous "men in black" saved the day. They thwarted the Joho-Ababu Namwamba "Team Fresh" from running away with ODM. Namwamba has since moved on. Also to move on is Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura, who was in Team Fresh. There was also Josphat Nanok, who now works in State House. The rest of the people in that drama are still in ODM, except the demised Otieno Kajwang. There is likelihood that the unfinished business of February 2014 could return in a new guise, with the necessary replacements. Against Team Fresh was Team Zani. Its kingpins were Senator Zani, Wycliffe Oparanya, Otieno Kajwang, George Aladwa, and Paul Otuoma. The rest of Joho-Ababu Team Fresh had Elizabeth Ongoro, Isaac Mwaura, and Adan Keynan. The Luo factor is another key strand in the competition for the soul of ODM. This is a two-pronged factor. One prong is the looming struggle for prominence among Luo politicians. Who among them will step in Raila's huge and heavy shoes? Over the past three decades, his will was religiously done in Luo Nyanza. This is best summarized in the 2005 quip during the August 2005 constitutional referendum. Asked by journalists if they had read the draft ahead of the referendum, the people would say, "Raila has read it, and he says it is bad. If Raila says it is bad, then it is bad." And in 2010 the response shifted to, "If Raila says it is good, then who am I to say it isn't good?" Who among the present crop of Luo politicians could occupy this hallowed space? Oburu has a head start, having been handed the acting ODM party leader post. Yet, the grain of history teaches us that this doesn't count for much, in the end. It only makes the fight more tantalizing. In 1996 Raila rejected the legitimacy that his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, seemed to have handed to James Orengo to lead the Luo, and to Wamalwa Kijana to lead Ford Kenya. The ensuing vicious fight for the two commands broke the party. Raila resigned to take over the Tractor party called the National Development Party (NDP), whose commander-in-chief he became. He moved on to fight bloody street duels in Kisumu, against Mayor Akinyi Oile, for the soul and command of the Luo nation. With Oile vanquished, the conquistador moved on to crush the erudite class of Nyong'o and Orengo. He was now firmly in command on both fronts. Kenya will be watching to see if another political maestro will emerge, to command the Luo and ODM, or even just either of the two. These competitions promise to be nasty for the simple fact that the glue in ODM has been the brilliant Raila Odinga personal charm rather than party instruments. Instruments exist on paper, as they indeed do in most other parties in the country. In practice, they count for little, or nothing before the Odinga personal talisman. Accordingly, authority and stability in ODM has rested on Odinga's personal magnetism, loyalty to the leader, and trust in the led; as well as the Odinga myth and personal moral anchorage. The departed leader's personal clout, especially, has made him the melting pot for internal ethnic, ideological and generational competitions. Looking around today, nobody in ODM, and in Luo Nyanza, has this kind of command. Absence of institutionalized internal discipline and command makes ODM without Raila vulnerable. Competitive wrangling could easily lead to fragmentation and destructive rivalry. This, in turn, could expose ODM and the Luo to external pressures and infiltration. What ODM should fear most, if it should fear anything, is a predatory President Ruto. He is set to have them for breakfast, dinner and lunch. Over the past two decades, ODM failed to take lessons from the ruins of African kingdoms. The party leader became the party. He was not just a leader. He was a cause, a rallying call, a myth; a religion, and a demigod. He was the moral and emotional centre of the party. Around him, individuals and factions jostled for relevance. His charismatic leadership was at once the vision and unity of the party. Today, Raila's magnetic leadership leaves the party and the support base in a fragile place. The departed man's leadership inspires, and will inspire for a long time to come. Yet, it has left behind a centre that will be difficult to hold. The glue that held ODM together was buried yesterday. Ambitious governors, senators, and members of the National Assembly are ready to begin jockeying, even as State vultures circle the orange party. Parties like FRELIMO of Mozambique, ANC of South Africa, and CCM of Tanzania built institutional frameworks for succession and continuity. The founders depersonalized leadership where Kenyan parties have created personality cults. FRELIMO survived the deaths of Eduardo Mondlane and Samora Machel. CCM has outlived Nyerere, and four other presidents. ANC survived Pixley Seme, John Dube, Albert Luthuli, Oliver Tambo, Nelson Mandela, and others. Can ODM outlive Odinga? Dr Muluka is a strategic communications adviser

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