Why Ruto's diplomatic blunders could cost Kenya non-NATO ally status

When President William Ruto was received by then US President Joe Biden at the White House, Washington, D.C. [PCS] It's reckoning time for Kenya, as the United States moves to roll back military and intelligence ties in a dramatic turn that could see Nairobi stripped of its coveted Major Non-NATO Ally status. At the heart of the storm are Kenya's growing diplomatic blunders, suspected links to rogue armed groups, and troubling human rights concerns that have rattled Washington just a year after conferring the honour. Top among the range of concerns are Nairobi's links to non-state armed groups and violent extremist organisations, Sudan's notorious Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Al Shabaab, in addition to Kenya's perceived global alignments with China, Russia and Iran, also under scrutiny. Kenya's warped handling of recent unrest is now under the spotlight, with the US assessment flagging serious human rights concerns that include abductions, torture, renditions, and general violence against civilians. The shocking details are contained in a proposed amendment now under consideration before the US Senate, one that, if given the green light, could spell diplomatic doom for a country that only earned its Major Non-NATO status on June 24, 2024. Major Non-NATO Ally of the US is regarded as one of the highest levels of military partnership that Washington offers to countries outside the formal NATO alliance and comes with a range of strategic, military, and financial benefits that include access to US defence equipment. Kenya is the first Sub-Saharan African country to receive the title. "This is a direct indictment on Kenya and specifically President William Ruto. It exposes a leadership that has completely gone off the rails, a leadership that has utterly suspended the constitution and the rule of law," observes Dr Joseph Mugachia, a governance expert affiliated with the Concerned Citizen Movement, a lobby group that agitates for democracy and the rule of law. Republican politician and Idaho Senator Jim Risch has tabled Amendment S.Amdt.3628, seeking to compel top US national security and foreign policy agencies to launch a full reassessment of Kenya's standing, citing concerns over its global alignments and the way it's been deploying American support. If passed, these amendments would automatically authorise appropriations for fiscal year 2026. Following the developments, The Standard contacted Kenya's top officials at the Foreign Affairs Ministry for reaction, but they did not respond to our inquiries by the time of going to press. If adopted, the measure would direct the US Secretary of State, in coordination with the Secretaries of Defense and Treasury, and the Director of National Intelligence, to launch a formal review within 90 days of the bill's enactment. The findings would then be submitted to Congress no later than 180 days later. Kenya's suspected ties to RSF, a paramilitary group accused of fueling violence and atrocities in Sudan's civil conflict, and considered a terrorist organisation by the U.S, seem to have gotten global attention. Kenya has long been in the spotlight for hosting and aiding RSF elements in their efforts to prop up a parallel government in Sudan from Nairobi, an act that has largely been seen to undermine international peace efforts and cast doubts on Kenya's commitment to regional stability. "Hosting RSF leaders on our soil is offering political legitimacy to one of the region's most brutal armed groups. This behavior starkly contradicts the values of international strategic alliance," observes Hussein Khalid, a human rights defender affiliated with Vocal Africa. A recent SwissAid investigation revealed Kenya has evolved into a key transit hub for illegally traded gold flowing from conflict zones in countries like South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The report points to entrenched corruption, weak customs controls, and possible involvement of political elites in facilitating the smuggling, suggesting that Kenya's illicit gold network is as deeply financial as it is geopolitical. According to Mugachia, President Ruto has placed the country in a bad place. "Kenya's global human rights standing has been a vexing question. You have a president who comes out in the open to give orders to police to shoot civilians. That's illegal. Countries that respect human rights and human dignity will not allow that to slide," says Mugachia. Also under sharp scrutiny, if the amendments sail through, is the Kenya-US relationship in the controversial Haiti mission, where Kenya pledged 1,000 police officers in the United Nations peacekeeping mission, whose uncertainty has been captured in Senator Risch's amendments. "Everyone saw this coming. Every agreement comes with clear terms and conditions. That the US wants to let go of Kenya speaks volumes. It means Kenya has violated or failed to play along with the terms and conditions. On this one, the country has lost big time," said Prof Fred Ogolla, a political strategist and economist. A year after the Haiti mission was launched, uncertainty has rocked the mission's future funding, with what observers have cited as growing cold feet by the US, the mission's top funder. "The US is very strong on democracy and governance. They wouldn't want to be associated with a country that has zero respect for the rule of law. What Kenya needs to do is to change the current leadership and have in place a government that respects these important tenets of democracy," says Mugachia. Also contained in Senator Risch's amendments is the assessment of Kenya's military, political, and financial relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. The lawmaker has asked for a detailed account of any engagements, agreements, or joint activities between Kenya and these countries since the MNNA status was granted. "It goes to show you that the US trade and commercial interests have been threatened and it's now gloves off, and they must come out to protect their interests. The worst thing that is likely to come out of this, if the amendments sail through, is reputational damage. Russia, China, and the rest will soon develop cold feet too. If it didn't work out with the US, possibly it might not work with them either," explains Prof Ogolla. The Risch amendment further calls for the assessment of whether American intelligence and military support has been implicated in actions against civilians such as abductions, torture, renditions, or violence. In June 2024, during the Gen Z uprising, over 60 young people lost their lives during the anti-government protests that erupted to protest over the high cost of living. In the recent Gen Z memorial and Sabasaba protests close to 100 people have been killed according to rights groups. Several abductions and disappearances were recorded, and at some point, President Ruto came out publicly to say he did not know who was behind the abductions. Human rights defender Khalid sees Senator Risch's move as both timely and necessary. "It's unfortunate that this is happening to our country but not surprising at all. We are witnessing Kenya's worst human rights violations. Things are deteriorating by the day," says Khalid. "For instance, look at the terrorism charges that over 100 young people have been slapped with. Has anyone even figured the implication of this? What are you telling the world, that Kenya harbors all these terrorists on their soil, all just to suppress dissent? Unthinkable," adds Khalid. "There are some things that can never be said by a president. When you tell the whole world that you are not aware of who is abducting your own citizens, then who should? This is a Kenyan who swore at the very highest level. These are assertions serious democracies cannot fathom," asserts Mugachia. To salvage things, Prof Ogolla, who's been pushing for political change with his Hekima Alliance Party, suggests the current administration step aside and pave the way for genuine reforms. "To bring back trust, the solution lies in coming up with a transition government," notes Prof Ogolla. Further, Risch's amendments seek to explore whether Kenya serves as a financial safe haven for individuals or entities listed on the US sanctions list or affiliated with foreign terrorist organisations, especially from countries such as South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and Somalia. "In my view, Senator Risch's amendment does not seek to sever U.S.-Kenya ties, rather it seeks to reorient them around shared values: democracy, accountability, and respect for human rights. Kenya's MNNA status must be earned, not assumed," says Khalid. Another major point of inquiry in Senator Risch's amendment is Kenya's economic engagement with China, particularly its involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative and any debt or commercial dependencies that may compromise U.S. interests in the region. "Conditioning MNNA on reforms will send a strong message that the international community stands with people, not repression," says Khalid. If passed, the results of the Kenya review would be sent to six US congressional committees: Foreign Relations, Armed Services, and Intelligence in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

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