Many voters might snub 2022 poll; they have good reasons to

Kenya is already on a campaign mode, thanks to a restless clique of politicians. In fact, some people are already predicting that the proposed referendum's outcome will have a bearing on the line up for the 2022 State House battle and its outcome.

Be that as it may, I can predict that the turnout in the 2022 presidential election will not be as impressive as it has been in past polls.

The last three general elections have created so much negative energy in the public that a thought of another election sickens.

The polarisation and amount of negative energy  build up to a crescendo during campaigns, making the environment toxic and the voter unable to make rational decisions on whom to vote for.   

While negative messaging is part of election campaign strategies, ours are overboard and generally border around hate speech.

Voters go to the ballot to deal with the “enemy” rather than to choose from among the candidates the one best placed to lead them.

There are many voters who simply show up to cast a “bullet vote” to ensure their candidate destroys the competitor, regardless of their ethical conduct in the campaigns.

Memories of 2007 post-election violence are still vivid. However, we don't seem to have learnt much from the bloodletting, as people still get killed during elections.

It is such horrendous killings that are making Kenyans to increasingly ask themselves whether it is  is actually worth it to wake up to go cast a vote that might lead to pain and tears.

Supporters, sycophants, friends and relatives of candidates immerse deep into election campaigns because they hope to gain immensely should their candidates get elected.

They are keen on every detail in the public that touches on their candidate. For them, it is a matter of winning or grudgingly losing, should it come to that.

Some of these supporters are ready to anything for the man or woman they support.

Besides negativity in the campaigns, there are other reasons that are dampening the morale of sober-minded voters.

One is the narrative that whether you vote or not someone will be in office and that person is already known, anyway. So why would anyone bother to queue for a fixed match?

The other is the curse of party politics. Very few people make it to elective leadership without licking the boots of someone.

If a candidate is independent in thought and action, chances of making it to the winning table are always very slim.

A few make it though but they have to work much harder compared to the bootlickers.

The real monster likely to determine turnout in the 2022 election is the fact that voters do not get a satisfactory explanation on why certain outcomes become controversial.

Some think, for example, that Raila Odinga is a perennial loser while others believe his victory is always stolen.

There are governors, MPs, senators and even MCAs whose victory has been questioned.

Since 2007, presidential election outcomes have been contested. As a result, the country gets deeply divided.

By the time we come out of the tensions, the economy is battered, ethnic relations soured, the big jobs are shared among a few, messages of peace increase tenfold at the expense of justice, and so forth.

The tragedy is that we have finally settled – or so it appears – on the belief that whatever the outcome and regardless of how one wins and the other loses, the final say does not rest on the voter. It rests elsewhere.

Partly it is in courts and partly in political spaces. So why vote?

Predetermined outcomes

Is the work of the voter simply to legitimise predetermined outcomes?

The composition of Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is often suspicious, leading to negative perception of the institution among voters.

Yet, no meaningful initiatives have been taken to assure Kenyans that lessons have been learnt from the past.

So, seriously, why should anyone bother to go to vote in 2022?

Finally, what assurance does a voter have to believe that come 2022 every vote will count and results will not be divisive?

The referendum, if and when it happens, is very silent on the processes that lead to victories and loses.

Sharing the cake between winners and losers is a minor effort. We must begin with the basics. Election processes must be transparent and accountable first before we address the plight of whoever narrowly loses.

The time to reflect on how to conduct a fair and credible election in 2022 is now when a majority of voters are sober.

Dr Mokua is Executive Director–Jesuit Hakimani Centre