Ipsos and Infotrak differ yet again on who will win presidential election


Infotrak Research and consulting CEO Angela Ambitho

Opinion is divided, even among pollsters, on who between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga will win the General Election.

While one pollster has consistently showed that the incumbent, President Kenyatta, has the upper hand against his opponent, the other has consistently showed National Super Alliance's Raila Odinga closing in and even overtaking the President.

Yesterday, Infotrak predicted a neck and neck race in the presidential contest, with Raila in the lead (49 per cent) against Mr Kenyatta (48 per cent). On the other hand, Ipsos had the incumbent taking the lead with 47 per cent against his main opponent's 44 per cent, which was one percentage point higher than the previous survey.

The one percentage point, according to Ipsos lead researcher Tom Wolf, could be attributed to the reduced one percentage in the number of undecided voters that stood at six per cent in their previous survey.

However, considering the margin of error of +/-1.49 per cent, this cannot be stated conclusively as the number of undecided voters could still be six per cent, just like in the previous survey.

Infotrak's undecided voters stand at two per cent compared to six per cent in their survey conducted between July 16 and 22.

Both pollsters insisted that despite none of the two leaders hitting the 50 per cent mark, a prediction for a run-off is not viable at this stage.

"If there will be a run-off, you have to find the total percentage of voters who will prefer the other six candidates to prevent the two attaining the 50 per cent mark," explained Wolf.

Infotrak's boss, Angela Ambitho, said the undecided respondents cited voter apathy, feeling disillusioned by both parties, and being unavailable as the major reasons they will not vote on the election day.

But a closer look at the surveys shows that while Raila leads in the Infotrak poll with 49 per cent against Uhuru's 48 per cent and lags behind with 44 per cent against Uhuru's 47 per cent in the Ipsos poll, President Uhuru appears to still be the preferred candidate.

This is if the margin of error of +/-1 per cent for both polls is included, which places President Uhuru at the same level with Raila in the Infotrak poll at 49 per cent (48+1).

But if the same margin of error in Ipsos is applied, President Uhuru is still leading, with the most Raila getting being 45 per cent (44+1).

While Ipsos polled 4,308 people across all the major eight regions (former provinces) with a confidence level of 95 per cent, Infotrack interviewed 5,000 respondents.

Raila was leading in Nyanza region, his stronghold, with 63 and 80 per cent in the Infotrak and Ipsos poll respectively.

Other areas he was perceived strong are Coast, Eastern, Western , and Nairobi. But as revealed by Ipsos, the biggest headache for NASA still remains the Western region, which had the biggest number of undecided voters at 14 per cent.

Enjoys support

This is despite the fact that the region is the turf of NASA co-principals Moses Wetang'ula (Ford-Kenya) and Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi.

"I do not know why this is the case. It is unclear if the voters have not made up their minds or they are just shy to say whom they will vote for," said Wolf.

Kenyatta enjoys support in Central, Rift Valley, and North Eastern, where he had 48 per cent, according to the Infotrak poll.

However, according to Ipsos, Raila is in the lead in North Eastern at 54 per cent against the incumbent's 40 per cent.

Ambitho said Eastern and North Eastern regions are still swing areas even as Raila has made gains in Rift Valley while Kenyatta has shown marked improvement at the Coast.

According to the Infotrak poll, Abduba Dida was at 0.3 per cent and Ekuru Aukot at 0.1 per cent while two per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

Data for both polls was collected using computer assisted personal interviews.