Improving disease modelling capacity key to beating malaria

Mosquito in a swamp.(Courtesy)

As we observe World Malaria Day, it's a good time to look back on our journey so far – the progress we have made and the long road ahead. Beyond the horizon is a Kenya where malaria epidemics are no longer surprises but something we can predict and prevent. Where interventions are not just widespread but also smart, targeted, and cost-effective. That future is within reach, and it starts with epidemiological modelling.

Despite all the progress we have made, malaria still continues to cast a long shadow over Kenya, threatening millions. The 2024 World Malaria Report estimates that 3.3 million cases were recorded in 2023—a drop from previous years, but still far too many. About 70 per cent of Kenyans remain at risk, and the transmission risk varies across the country, from a 19 per cent prevalence in lake-endemic regions to less than 1 per cent in low risk areas.