Why Raila should rethink protests

Raila Odinga must change tack by taking the fight against the leadership of the national polls body off the streets. The commissioners too, must read the signs on the wall and start to roll up their mats.

Then the President must put Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph Nkaissery on a shorter leash because he is running Kenya like it is an extension of the military barracks he left where decrees, ‘freezing’ when the boss passes by if you are not in uniform, and a salute if in uniform.

Now let me acknowledge my previous position that in the way President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto have dealt with the protests, much similar to Robert Mugabe’s and Yoweri Museveni’s iron-fisted tactics, both have walked into Mr Odinga’s and generally CORD’s trap. Yes, they have succeeded in provoking the reptilic nature of Jubilee operators to come out with bared fangs. This is fodder for the Western media whose habari kwa ufupi (news by briefs) showcases Mr Kenyatta’s regime as another of those African governments where brain always loses the wrestle with brawn. Tragic indeed for a man whose global ratings were soaring after hosting US President Barack Obama and Pope Francis, and was preparing to welcome British Premier David Cameron. Consider also that all serious humanity crimes against Mr Ruto just collapsed, albeit with the Judges citing lack of cooperation by the government and witness interference. All was going on well until the wisdom of the likes of Leader of Majority Adan Duale and Senator Kipchumba Murkomen seemed to have won over the sage wisdom Mr Kenyatta must have picked from the elders around him.

But we could be wrong in assuming they have not weighed the risks of image loss against terrifying and cowing dissent using Apartheid South Africa’s police water cannons, teargas, bullets and all that. After all, the State enjoys the monopoly of and wields the instruments of violence. There are, however, 10 reasons why Mr Odinga and his new recruits to street protests - Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula - must go back to the drawing board. What exactly is Cord’s strategy assuming Mr Kenyatta does not budge? Are they prepared for weekly demos all the way to polling day? Un-programmed, long-drawn-out can be counter-productive if there are no clearer options to intensify and sustain the pressure. It may just fizzle out.

There is also the danger that protracted mass action will breed dissent and anger among those whose businesses and work will suffer disruption, losses and damages, leading to indignation directed at Mr Odinga. There is also bound to be boredom among the youth who for the moment, enjoy the thrill and bravado confronting the police and so numbers may start thinning out as it becomes routine and episodic.

Even the media will start relegating it to the inside pages as boredom and monotony sets it. Like in the pro-reform rallies in 1997, Mr Odinga must get a narrative that is easily communicable, is clear on the bigger picture, and has the capacity to excite (not incite!) Kenyans to back him.

Protests also portend the risk that Jubilee propagandists will delight in fuelling the perception of Mr Odinga as a man who thrives on violence, is intolerant and must either have his way or there is no other way. There is also the danger that Jubilee hatchet ‘boys’ like Mike Sonko and Moses Kuria might infiltrate the protests using unruly hirelings whose muggings, thefts and breakages would be blamed on Mr Odinga.

The National Alliance chairman Onyango Oloo has already let the cat out of the bag and so it is just a matter of when, not if? Remember the Jeshi la Mzee in 1990? There is also real fear that whatever much is at stake, the grievance against IEBC, ranging from its conduct of the March 2013 General Election, Chicken-eating in London by some of its top officials, and the seemingly cozy relations with Jubilee, the protests are putting us on the same path that led to the 2007/08 Post-Election Violence.

Mr Odinga should also weigh the extent of the interest and appeal the push has so far generated, especially the fact that apart from Nairobi, it appears to have only picked traction in Kisumu. Courage is the capacity to face such hard facts like that the protests have not taken off in Mr Musyoka’s and Mr Wetangula’s strongholds.

Then there is the better news that Ahmed Issack Hassan and his team will go anyway and the signs are on the wall by way of the Justice House Committee led by Samuel Chepkonga and that posting to his friend and a well-connected city lawyer. The good thing for this team is that we, the taxpayers, will have to buy the remainder of their contracts and it won’t be as cheap as chickenfeed! In fact, I get the sense that for Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, it may just be the issue of timing and who will claim credit for house-cleaning at Anniversary Towers.

The other issue that Mr Odinga and his team should mull over is the whole tricky issue of succession. He doesn’t need a storm when it comes to picking the successors of Mr Hassan’s team. What if when Mr Hassan’s team leave, Mr Kenyatta still gets an upper hand through the ‘tyranny of numbers’ in Parliament and which Mr Odinga is currently running away from (and then Cord rejects the new team)?

Finally, courting Western diplomats and the public could soften the manacle grip of Jubilee. In this era, street protests may not be the only way to warm the cockles of their hearts. Lastly; how to bring on board the religious groups and civil society.