Ugandan shilling firmer, still at risk

The Ugandan shilling was stronger on Friday, helped by an interbank sell-off after a string of Central Bank interventions but traders said the currency still remained vulnerable. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,865/2,875, stronger than Thursday’s close of 2,880/2,890.

“After the interventions, we’re seeing a lot of caution in the market... some are selling off (dollars),” said Ahmed Kalule, trader at Bank of Africa. Ahmed said the market was sensing the Central Bank was keen to keep the currency below 2,900 and that the shilling would likely remain in the 2,850-2,900 range in the short term.

Depreciation pressure has been mounting on the shilling, fanned by soaring demand for dollars by commercial banks and fuel importers. Traders say banks were building long dollar positions to hedge against any risks from a likely US hike of interest rates and a globally bullish greenback, weakening the shilling.

Although BoU typically doesn’t disclose how much money it injects into the market, Stephen Kaboyo of Alpha Capital Partners, a former central banker with BoU, estimated about $45 million could have been sold. He said the interventions had “calmed the nerves” although the shilling’s outlook remained bearish.