It's more than oil in the fight for the soul of Venezuela

Anti-government protesters clash with security forces in the surroundings of La Carlota military base in Caracas during the commemoration of May Day on May 1, 2019. [AFP]

South America, also called Latin America is an economic enigma. The region has been free from colonialism for over 200 years. It was under Spanish rule for about 300 years. Brazil was under Portuguese rule from 1500 to 1822.

The Dutch also had interests in this region, specifically in Suriname. 

This region is rarely in the news, except during the World Cup. And when it’s in the headlines, it’s often for bad reasons, about narcotics and bad governance. One bright spot beyond football is the Amazon rainforest. 

South America seems to confirm that political freedom is not a prerequisite for economic growth and freedom. Sounds familiar? Why did these countries not flourish after their uhuru? Did Spanish and Portuguese overstay and hurt the self-confidence of these nations?

Think of their 300 years versus our only 68 years. Does our short colonial period explain our self-confidence and virulent ethnicity? There was no time to tame it.  Did the colonisers in South America fail to build institutions and therefore make way for dictators? Did the same fate befall Sahel?  Did they copy the Spanish monarchy when the United States (US) was moving away from monarchy? Why did democracy fail to thrive in these countries next to the US? Is religion a factor? South America is very Catholic, the rest of Americas?

The State of the Latin American economy can also be explained by a cultural curiosity.   The Spanish, unlike Britons in Kenya, crossed-mated with the locals to get mestizos.

They make up about 50 per cent of the Venezuelan population. How do these ethnic groups interact? Who holds the balance of political power? Does race play the role tribe plays in Kenya? Noted the rising population of cross-race kids in Kenya? Why?

The hierarchy with white, mestizos, indigenous and black has persisted in Latin America. The indigenous and black people have demanded inclusion in countries like Bolivia and Ecuador. Did that hierarchy mute competition and meritocracy and, by extension, delay economic growth?  Add the oil curse. Abundant natural resources in such a racially charged space made dictatorship very attractive to “keep order.”  The outside influence, read investors attracted by oil leave strong men with an excuse, “to defend their country against exploitation”; only that in most cases they are in economic bed with supposed exploiters. 

Venezuela mimics Middle East and African countries with oil or precious minerals. The instability is twofold. It’s internal as leaders try to control the wealth and perpetuate themselves. Sounds familiar? External forces include investors, backed by their governments. In some cases, it’s outright outlaws. 

We fear that rare earth metals will be the next oil. Will that create new zones of instability? Rare earths are also driving space exploration; there could be plenty in the asteroids and the moon. 

Back to Venezuela.  Why the American involvement? The nationalisation of the US oil companies was a well-kept grudge. Americans played the long game on that.

The pronouncement that the United States will control Venezuelan oil, about 70 per cent of which currently goes to China, explains the US determination to control the Venezuelan economy.

Venezuela is like Cuba in the 1960s without missiles. The US does not want competition for influence in the western hemisphere, the basis of the Monroe Doctrine, now called Donroe doctrine, from Donald Trump. Remember, Donald Trump is not a fan of renewables; remember drill, drill? 

The accusation that Venezuela has flooded the US with narcotics and immigrants is politically charged. What is clear is that the US’s thriving economy attracts immigrants looking for a new life. That has been the American pride since the founding of the Republic 250 years ago. The rhetoric over Venezuela is good news for core republicans who love America’s projection of power. 

What next for Venezuela?

We hope it will not go the Libyan or Iraqi way, both oil producers. Could that explain why, after Nicholas Maduro, the vice president took over?

American strategists may have figured out that it’s easier to control Venezuela from within. The chaos after Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein clearly shows that building a nation is not an exact science. Chaos in Venezuela could spill into the neighbouring countries. 

Neighbouring countries

The US seems to have chosen evolution over revolution in Venezuela. The success of this strategy will depend on three factors. One is the reaction of the ordinary Venezuelans.  They may be pacified by a well-known name, the Rodriguez and continuity. More importantly, is if they will enjoy more freedom and their economic well-being improves. 

Two is the reaction of the neighbouring countries. Will they become anti-American or toe the line?

Will they live under the long shadow of US boldness in getting Noriega and Maduro in Panama and Venezuela? 

Three is the reaction of two competing powers, China and Russia.

Beyond Venezuela, Greenland is on the radar. The talk on Greenland may not be sabre-rattling. Attraction to Greenland? Strategic location; with global warming, the North Pole could be the new sea route connecting America, Europe and Asia.

Ever wondered why your plane overflies Greenland to Europe? Add rare earth metals and the pride of an expanding US. Remember adding Hawaii, Alaska and Louisiana? 

Finally, it’s my dream to visit South America. The nearest I got there was through the heart. A lady from Ecuador almost stole my heart in the US Deep South. She was a mestizo. Can you see a full stop before this sentence?