Trans Nzoia Senator Allan Chesang faces a tough contest from new entrants

Trans Nzoia Senator Allan Chesang. [Courtesy]

The stakes are high in the Trans-Nzoia senatorial race following the entry of Deputy Speaker Obed Mwale and Football Kenya Federation official Issac Munene.

The incumbent, Allan Chesang, had Joshua Werunga as his main challenger during the 2022 General Elections, but Werunga has since withdrawn to contest the Kwanza parliamentary seat.

Chesang garnered 123,793 votes, while Werunga received 56,779.

Mwale, the MCA for Matisi and a close ally of Governor George Natembeya, is seen as a formidable candidate who could pose a serious challenge to Chesang.

An orator and effective mobiliser, Mwale presents a strong opposition to Chesang, who is seeking a second term.

Having served two terms as MCA, Mwale is backed by the governor to unseat Chesang, who is a critic of Natembeya.

The governor does not see eye to eye with the senator, as he has already begun campaigning for Mwale.

Chesang, however, has vowed to make Natembeya a one-term governor.

Munene's entry into the race has also complicated matters for the senator, after he received the support of his Kikuyu community over the weekend.

In the 2022 elections, Chesang won the Kikuyu vote, but he is now likely to lose this support as Munene seeks the same seat.

On Saturday, members of the Kikuyu community gathered in Endebess to endorse Munene for the senatorial seat.

The presence of Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa and Independent Policing Oversight Authority vice chairperson Ann Wanjiku Mwangi at the meeting added weight to the race.

Wamalwa has strong working relationships with all the ethnic communities in the county and is regarded as a key political influencer.

Former senator Dr Michael Mbito is also said to be warming up for a political comeback, a move that could reduce Chesang's chances of re-election.

Since his unsuccessful bid for the Saboti parliamentary seat, Dr Mbito has been busy with his businesses.

Although he has not publicly declared his intention to run again, allies of Mbito have intensified social media campaigns.

The anticipated tough competition is expected to impact the political arrangement set out in the Mabonga Peace Accord.

The agreement, signed in 2011, aimed to resolve intrastate ethnic conflicts and served as an interim peace framework among elders of the Bukusu, Iteso, and Sabaot communities in Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia counties.

Under this negotiated democracy, the affected communities agreed on sharing elective seats.

Since then, the Sabaot community has held the senator seat since the 2013 General Elections.

Henry Ole Ndiema served from 2013 to 2017, before being succeeded by Dr Michael Mbito, who lost to Allan Chesang in the 2022 elections.

Ethnically, the Bukusu community dominates the county and possesses significant voting power.

Based on numerical strength, the community largely determines the outcome of elective positions.

Political commentators warned that the beneficiaries of the negotiated democracy could be the biggest losers if the agreement collapses.

"If the political arrangement as provided in the agreement is not going to work, then elected leaders of negotiated democracy are going to be affected," said Dennis Wambalaba.

Trans-Nzoia has approximately 412,000 voters, with the Luhya community leading, followed by the Kalenjin community. The Turkanas, Kisis, and Luos form the third group, with Kikuyus also present.