Odinga family endorsement of Oparanya fuels speculation over ODM succession

CS Wycliffe Oparanya with Ida Odinga as ODM succession speculation gathers pace. [Courtesy, X/DrOparanya]

Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives Wycliffe Oparanya's endorsement as the possible successor to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has sparked a debate in South Nyanza and the Western region.

Raila Odinga Junior, Oburu Odinga’s eldest son, Jaoko Oginga and the Jokawour Council of Elders described a hailed political and personal relationship between the Odinga and Oparanya families.

The Odinga family and Luo elders visited Oparanya at his home in Mambole, Kakamega County, and endorsed him as their preferred leader, fuelling speculation over ODM succession.

The visit has also revived speculation that Oparanya could emerge as a possible successor to the late Raila Odinga at the helm of ODM and, potentially, as President William Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 General Election.

The speculation comes against the backdrop of Oparanya’s recent political engagements with leaders from Western Kenya and his continued association with the Odinga family following Raila’s death.

During the visit, John Odinga, secretary to the Jokawour Council of Elders, said the delegation had come to appreciate and protect the relationship between Oparanya and the late Raila.

“As a whole, we came here to appreciate the relationship between Cabinet Secretary Oparanya and our late comrade Raila Odinga. We cannot take that relationship for granted,” said John.

He said the relationship between the two leaders had existed for many years and should continue beyond the two politicians.

“Their friendship has come a long way, and we came to ascertain that the relationship should continue. We also want this relationship to continue beyond ourselves and beyond Raila,” he said.

John said the elders wanted Oparanya to work closely with Oburu to ensure that the political relationship between the two families and the Luo and Luhya communities remained intact.

“We want our Cabinet Secretary to be close to our party leader so that he can make his work easier. We want ODM to continue growing in every part of the country,” he said.

The elders also invited Oparanya to Bondo, where they said he would be installed as an elder in accordance with their traditions.

Raila Junior, who attended the meeting with the blessings of his mother, Ida Odinga, said the visit was part of efforts by the family to honour longstanding ties between the two families.

“As you know, Bwana Oparanya, thank you very much for hosting us today. " This is the second day of Baba Month, as ODM has prepared a whole month for Baba,” Raila Junior said.

He explained that the timing of Raila’s burial had prevented the family from visiting some of the areas where the late ODM leader enjoyed significant support, including Kakamega.

“I have come here with the blessings of my mother, Dr Ida Betty Odinga, and of our father, Dr Oginga, to fellowship with Omwami Oparanya,” he said.

Raila Junior said the visit was also informed by cultural traditions surrounding the relationship between the two families.

“My father had a role in Oparanya’s house, and according to our traditions, there is a process or a ceremony that we have to do within this period of time,” he said.

He added that discussions had also been held on strengthening relations between the families before inviting Oparanya to visit Bondo.

The delegation said the relationship between the Luo and Luhya communities should be preserved as part of Raila’s legacy.

The remarks were echoed by members of the delegation who argued that the late ODM leader had symbolised unity across communities.

They said Oparanya’s relationship with the Odinga family was rooted in history, noting that the political partnership between the two families was not accidental.

The delegation further pointed to historical links between the Luo and Luhya communities, including family ties associated with the former Nabongo leadership.

The visit ended with Oparanya accepting the elders’ call for continued cooperation with the Odinga family and pledging to advise members of the family on political and broader national issues.

Oparanya said the elders wanted the relationship he had with Raila to continue beyond their generation.

“They appreciate that relationship and feel that that relationship should continue beyond us, beyond Raila, even beyond me, so that the upcoming family becomes part of the community,” he said.

The former Kakamega governor said he was prepared to work with the Odinga family and the elders to strengthen the two communities and ODM.

“We can work together for the benefit of the two communities and also for the benefit of ODM,” said Oparanya.

He said ODM should remain strong enough to form the next coalition with President Ruto’s UDA ahead of the 2027 elections.

“We will all take ODM together to make sure that ODM becomes a strong party, a strong party that will form the next coalition with UDA so that we can have a strong government come in 2027,” he said.

Oparanya also accepted a role as an adviser to members of the Odinga family.

“I will be an adviser to the siblings that come from that community, more so the community within the Jaramogi family, in terms of political issues and the wider issues. They are free to come and consult with me, and I am also free to consult with them,” he said.

The statements have fuelled speculation over whether Oparanya is positioning himself for a bigger political role as ODM grapples with the challenge of succession following Raila’s death.

Oparanya was one of Raila’s deputy party leaders in ODM alongside former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho before the two were appointed to President Ruto’s Cabinet under the broad-based government arrangement following the Gen Z protests.

Both subsequently relinquished their senior positions in ODM.

Oparanya has since remained in the Cabinet while continuing to engage political leaders across Western Kenya.

He has told the Standard that he would be ready to resign from Cabinet and take over the leadership of ODM if given an opportunity, with the aim of ensuring the party supports Ruto in 2027 and contributes to the formation of the next government.

His recent meetings with MPs and political actors from Western Kenya across different parties have further intensified speculation about his political ambitions.

Political analysts have interpreted the engagements as part of a possible strategy by Oparanya to consolidate his influence ahead of the 2027 elections.

But political analyst Martin Andati dismissed the possibility of Oparanya taking over ODM while Oburu remains the party leader, arguing that the former Kakamega governor was seeking political relevance by maintaining close links with the Odinga family.

“Oparanya is behaving like a beheaded chicken. He wants to advance his political interests by trying to remain relevant by courting and hanging on to the Odinga family as a political godfather when he knows very well that he cannot be a party leader when Oburu is the current party leader,” said Andati.

Andati also questioned whether ODM still commands the political influence it enjoyed under Raila, particularly following the departure of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the formation of a separate political outfit.

“ODM is no longer strong and popular, and there is nothing like Oparanya wanting to revamp and strengthen it. Sifuna moved with ODM and commands a significant section of Raila’s and ODM supporters,” he said.

According to Andati, Oparanya’s broader objective could be to position himself for consideration as Ruto’s running mate rather than simply reviving ODM.

“For Oparanya, this is about positioning himself as a possible running mate to Ruto, but that will be difficult because of the Sifuna effect in the West and the possibility of him emerging as a presidential candidate,” he said.

The political succession debate has also raised questions about the future of ODM under Oburu, who assumed the party leadership following Raila’s death.

Some political observers contend that the Odinga family could prefer an outsider to succeed Oburu in ODM, arguing that such an arrangement would allow the family to retain influence while avoiding the emergence of another Luo political family that could challenge its traditional political base.

The argument, however, remains part of the wider political speculation surrounding the future of ODM and the Odinga family.

An elder from the Jokawour Council of Elders told the Standard that the visit had the blessings of Ida Odinga, who was initially expected to accompany the delegation to Oparanya’s home.

“Our visit has the blessings of Ida, and she was to accompany us, but we saw it wise that she holds on until Oparanya visits Bondo and is installed as an elder,” said the elder.

He added, "It is at that time when we will reveal more; therefore, expect more.”

The planned visit to Bondo could therefore provide another significant moment for the two families as the political realignment ahead of the 2027 General Election gathers pace.

For now, Oparanya remains a Cabinet Secretary in President Ruto’s administration, while Oburu remains at the helm of ODM. But the carefully choreographed visit, the elders’ call for Oparanya to advise the Odinga family and the renewed emphasis on Luo-Luhya unity have opened a new chapter in the debate over who will inherit Raila’s political mantle and where ODM fits into the emerging 2027 alliance.

The question now is whether the Oparanya-Odinga relationship is simply about preserving Raila’s legacy and Luo-Luhya unity or the beginning of a broader political arrangement that could see Oparanya play a central role in ODM and the Ruto succession equation.