Kalonzo's 2027 gamble: Can the diplomat finally catch his flight?

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at a past event. [File, Standard]

Wiper Patriotic Front (EPF) leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s stakes are at their highest in the highly fluid search for a presidential flag bearer and running mate for the united opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election, now just 11 months away.

After years in the diplomatic circuit, pursuing peace between warring factions in the regional madhouses of Somalia and Sudan, Kalonzo now faces the test of his political life in his quest to become President and Kenya’s diplomat-in-chief.

It is a testimony to his political resilience that Kalonzo has remained a consequential player through the last three General Elections and that his relevance in the forthcoming contest has not diminished.

Only this time, at 72, he has to pray that the stars and planets align to help him overcome his perennial jinx of playing the gentle diplomat of Kenyan politics — keeping good company, being at the right place at the right time, only to miss the flight at the last minute.

Kalonzo’s trajectory as an emerging potential consensus candidate for the united opposition was beginning to look almost assured.

Two presidential contenders — DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua and DP leader Justin Muturi — had publicly expressed admiration for the former Vice-President, indicating that they would be comfortable supporting him to fly the opposition presidential flag should they themselves not be picked.

Then Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s wave happened, and the conversation no longer sounded so assured.

In recent months, the political grapevine has also been rife with undercurrents of frantic schemes and overtures by Government-leaning actors and their blogosphere battalions. They have insinuated that State House was willing to move heaven and earth to pluck Kalonzo from the one-term camp and rope him into the two-term column — but had not succeeded.

Once again, and for the fourth time, Kalonzo finds himself in familiar territory: walking a tightrope, juggling personal ambition, stitching coalitions and navigating treacherous and competing political interests.

Before Sifuna and his robust Gen Z youth battalion blasted their way into the conversation, Kalonzo’s age, longevity in public service and seniority as a former Vice-President and twice presidential running mate to the late Raila Odinga gave him a national brand around which opposition forces could coalesce with the least friction and resistance.

With Sifuna now in the conversation, however, that assumption has become a matter of debate.

Responding to a question during an appearance on the JKL show last week, former Cabinet minister and United Nations trade technocrat Dr Mukhisa Kituyi said both Kalonzo’s longevity in public service and Sifuna’s youthful energy were assets to the united opposition camp.

“Kalonzo’s longevity in public service since 1984 is an asset. Sifuna represents a new constituency which has been waiting in the wings but now says it has come of age. Both are legitimate but we need a method to find out which one has more traction with the electorate,” said Dr Kituyi.

Kalonzo has been around this block before. That perhaps explains his cool, reflective and cautious demeanour.

In his memoirs, Against All Odds, published in 2016, Kalonzo recalls that events have a way of tossing up the most unexpected dynamics, with profound ramifications and consequences.

As Vice-President under President Mwai Kibaki from 2008-2013, Kalonzo was at the centre of the 2012 Kibaki succession plans. He had drawn up a tripartite coalition blueprint with then Internal Security Cabinet Minister and PNU chairman Prof George Saitoti and then Deputy Prime Minister and KANU leader Uhuru Kenyatta.

Their Kibaki succession blueprint, under the tentative brand name PNU Alliance, had interim officials led by then Energy Minister and PNU Secretary-General Kiraitu Murungi, then Kalonzo aide and Ukambani political supremo Johnstone Muthama, and Kajiado-based political activist Peter Sepalan, among others.

PNU Alliance was primed to face the ODM rival camp in the Kibaki succession contest and was exuding confidence, even as the International Criminal Court (ICC) hovered over one of its principals, Uhuru Kenyatta, in connection with the 2007/08 post-election violence indictments.

Then, on June 10, 2012, Prof Saitoti perished in a tragic air crash near Ngong shortly after take-off from Wilson Airport.

General elections were due on March 4, 2013.

“The PNU Alliance pre-election protocol was signed between Kalonzo Musyoka (for then ODM-Kenya/Wiper), Uhuru Kenyatta (for KANU), and George Saitoti (for PNU as its substantive chairman). This protocol focused on averting 1992 and 1997-style fracturing of the Mt Kenya/GEMA and Ukambani voting blocs as platforms on which to build internal consensus negotiations to field a single compromise Presidential candidate,” Kalonzo recalls in Against All Odds.

The consensus candidate, drawing solid backing from the Mt Kenya/Ukambani blocs and others, was expected to face ODM candidate Raila Odinga in 2013.

But when Prof Saitoti died in the air crash on June 10, 2012, the PNU Alliance and its Kibaki succession plans effectively died with him. The remnants scattered in all directions.

Kalonzo would team up with Raila to form CORD. Uhuru teamed up with his erstwhile nemesis and fellow ICC indictee, William Ruto. Kiraitu ended up with what was left of PNU, which he rebranded as “Mbus”.

All this happened within seven months between June 2012 and February 2013.

The rest is history.

When Raila declared that he would run for President again in 2017, Kalonzo issued a stinging public statement saying he would be a fool to support Raila for a second time by playing running mate to him.

He later recalled being persuaded by Prof Makau Mutua to walk back from his public renunciation of any further pact with Raila through another solemn memorandum of understanding.

The agreement, Kalonzo says, provided that whether they won or lost, Raila would support Kalonzo’s quest for the presidency in 2022.

Yet, speaking on a political talk show two weeks ago, Kalonzo declined to frame the events of 2022 as a high-level betrayal. He also did not describe as illegitimate the process through which he was subjected to interviews with potential running mates such as then Murang’a Woman Representative Sabina Chege, or deny the entitlement he believed he had accumulated through past agreements with Raila.

“The 2017 MOU was signed in tripartite. I kept one copy. Raila kept the second copy. Prof Mutua banked the third copy in the United States of America. But in 2022, I agreed to sacrifice again in the interests of democracy and constitutionalism and made way for Martha Karua and Raila Odinga. I delivered for both Raila and Martha despite the disappointment my supporters endured that I was not on the ballot,” Kalonzo said.

On another occasion, Kalonzo has suggested that had he been on the ballot, either as a presidential candidate or running mate, the outcome would have been different.

“Raila and I had won the 2013 and 2017 presidential contests, but the courts gave victory to Uhuru. This time round, in 2022, Uhuru was on our side and there was no way we could have lost,” Kalonzo has said.

The William Ruto-Rigathi Gachagua ticket ultimately defeated the Raila Odinga-Martha Karua ticket by about 200,000 votes.

Kalonzo and his close supporters have been keen to persuade the united opposition to move with speed and name him as its presidential flag bearer for the 2027 battle against the incumbent.

However, although he keeps good company with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the leader of the Azimio coalition where Linda Mwananchi is anchored, and DCP leader and Mt Kenya political supremo Rigathi Gachagua, who commands a substantial Mt Kenya voter base, Kalonzo appears conflicted over who sits on his right hand and who sits on his left between the two, while offending none.

For once, the diplomat needs all the diplomacy he can muster.

His dilemma is not simply about choosing allies. It is about deciding whether the long wait for his presidential moment has finally arrived — and whether the coalition politics surrounding him will allow him to seize it.

At 72, time is no longer a neutral factor.

The gentle diplomat of Kenyan politics must unleash all the diplomacy in him to navigate between competing ambitions within the political family he prays will carry him to State House.

The stars may yet align.

But this time, Kalonzo cannot afford to miss the flight.