Ol Kalou and Mbeere North hold key lessons for UDA, Opposition ahead of 2027

Ol Kalou MP-elect Sammy Kamau Ngotho of the Democratic Congress Party. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

It was not so much the victory but the vote difference that shouted loudest in Thursday's Ol Kalou by-election results.

That the Democratic Congress Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho amassed 35,440 votes against the ruling United Democratic Alliance’s Samuel Muchina Nyaga's 5,450 votes was a clear demonstration that the latter's campaign was doomed from the start.

Compared to the Mbeere North by-election, where UDA narrowly won by a 400-vote margin through Leo Njeru Wamuthende against the DCP's Newton Kariuki (Karis), it was clear in the Ol Kalou constituency that trying to force a tight battle was a hard task.

Political commentator and Multi Media University of Kenya (MMU) Leadership and Management lecturer Prof Gitile Naituli summed up Ol Kalou as a historical whisper of what lay ahead in August 2027.

"The by-election was not the earthquake. It was the tremor that reminds us to inspect the foundations before greater tests arrive. History rarely announces its turning points with fanfare. More often, it whispers before it speaks," Prof Naituli said.

Prof Peter Kagwanja said, unlike Mbeere North where there was better room to maneuver, UDA understood the enormity of its task in Ol Kalou and realistically was never focused on winning.

"This was like the battle of eggs and stones. If the egg hits itself against the stone, it will crack and splatter and if the stone goes for the egg, the latter will still crack and waste," said Prof Kagwanja.

He argued that Ol Kalou was a litmus test for UDA and DCP ahead of the 2027 General Election and the latter was out for a clean sweep while the ruling party aimed to secure at least 20 per cent of the votes cast as a rehearsal for harnessing an equivalent percentage of mountain votes which would be a substantial count to President William Ruto retaining the presidency.

"Mbeere North was never really a litmus test. It is the smallest of constituencies and with heavy pounding, the government can and did win it though narrowly," said Prof Kagwanja.

The chairman of the Federation of Evangelical and Indigenous Christian Churches of Kenya (FEICCK) Bishop Njiriri cautioned the opposition against over hyping the Ol Kalau victory, saying the ruling party also achieved a strategic score.

"The mountain is perennially on opposition mode, seeing that it even offers token support to incumbent presidents from the same region. That is how Uhuru"s candidates lost in Juja and Kiambaa constituencies in his last term and President Kibaki faced a lot of internal mountain pressure in his term," said Bishop Njiriri who heads the Stewards Revival Ministry.

The bishop reckoned that the ruling party may be the biggest beneficiary of the looming split of Mt Kenya votes in 2027 and warned that a three-way fault line is apparent, isolating Mt Kenya East, Nyeri and its diaspora in Laikipia and Nyandarua; and a further Kiambu/Murang'a and it's diaspora block.

"Ol Kalou was surely a win for the opposition but the biggest lesson is for the side that uses it to reverse its weaknesses or fortify its strengths," said Bishop Njiriri.

Campaign goodies

In Mbeere North by-election, unofficial estimates put the government expenditure at Sh300 million, but Ol Kalou made that look like pocket change for a school boy.

Conservative estimates put the spending spree upwards of Sh1 billion, with thousands of households getting gas cylinders, cash handouts, two diesel-powered fishing boats for Mirangine dam and infrastructure projects lined up for the area.

The projects include revival of the 40-year moribund Gilgil-Nyahururu metre Guage railway line, several road projects, proposed Nyandarua University and rural electrification.

There was also the usual rice and bean rations associated with the UDA campaign troops in the mountain and visits by government technocrats including Principal Secretaries during the Ol Kalou campaign period.

Benefit of incumbency

It is the fanfare of such projects that prompted IEBC Commissioner Anne Nderitu to say that not all handouts should be classified as bribes, sparking outrage.

But Prof Naituli of MMU reckoned that the outcome of the Ol Kalou by-election has vindicated Kenya's blooming democracy.

"The responsibility belongs to every citizen to reject corruption regardless of who benefits from it," he said.

UDA National Executive Committee (NEC) member Kiruga Thuku said there was no government scheme to influence voting through projects and campaign goodies.

"It is only unfortunate that our opponent’s propaganda and lies worked better than our development agenda,' said Thuku who is the Chinga ward MCA in Nyeri.

"The truth is government projects are rolling out across Kenya but they were able to link the few ongoing ones in Ol Kalou to the by-election campaigns. Yet as UDA we dare not give up our development vision," he added.

Thuku, however, admitted that there were real fears within UDA that the Ol Kalou outcome could be replicated across Mt Kenya and they plan to have a meeting to and find out what could have gone wrong.

"Whichever way, some of us in UDA are ready to pay the ultimate price if our opponents infiltrate the ground to the extent of influencing the choice of our people which we shall respect," he said.

Political commentator and Meru DCP chairman James Mithika said the opposition had picked key lessons from the Ol Kalou by-election building up from the Mbeere North by-election.

"One of our biggest lessons is that our democracy has come of age. No government bribe can change the people's views on development," said Dr Mithika. "You have to address the real underlying economic issues to convince the voters."

He said the images of wananchi standing up against armed goons riding SUVs in Ol Kalou has affirmed the resolve to avert political violence designed to create voter apathy or rig next year's General Election.

"The risk of violence was identified clearly in Ol Kalou and the warning is that civil violence can be triggered easily when the people smell the likelihood of a stolen election," said Dr Mithika.