Opposition's unity pledge unravels as rival strategies emerge ahead of 2027

United Opposition leaders, families of Gen Z protest victims and activists march along Uhuru Highway to lay flowers along Parliament Road in memory of the fallen victims. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard]

The Gen Z protest anniversary exposed how the united Opposition is working at cross purposes despite repeated promises to field a single candidate against President William Ruto in next year's election.

The leaders' differing stances on the protests exposed deep divisions as they issued contradictory remarks on whether Gen Z supporters should take to the streets to commemorate their peers who were killed by police.

While Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua urged supporters to stay away from the streets, other figures such as Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka and People's Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua joined activists in laying wreaths along Parliament Road.

Beyond their contradictory positions on the protests, the Opposition principals also appear to have taken different paths on conducting joint rallies and on the approach to selecting a single presidential candidate to face Ruto ahead of next year's polls.

While Kalonzo, Gachagua and Democracy Action Party leader Eugene Wamalwa appear to be reading from the same political script and holding joint rallies, Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Fred Matiang'i seems to be coalescing around former Meru governor Peter Munya of the Party of National Unity (PNU).

On June 6, Matiang'i and Munya toured parts of Meru and Isiolo counties, popularising their respective parties while remaining within the broader opposition.

Their separate meetings came two months after Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Jeremiah  Kioni accused Gachagua of sidelining the Jubilee Party during joint Opposition rallies, claiming Jubilee aspirants had not been recognised while DCP candidates dominated the events.

In March, while attending a church service in Murang'a, Matiang'i announced his intention to form a political alliance with Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, even as he presented Nyoro's donation at a church fundraiser.

"Nyoro is one of the MPs I admire and one of my good friends. I will come here one evening, and we shall have talks with him because we do not want to leave anyone behind," he said while responding to Nyoro's personal assistant, who had urged him to join forces with the MP because of their performance in the education sector.

Since then, the former Interior Cabinet Secretary has held separate private meetings with Linda Mwananchi leaders, seeking to forge a political alliance that would increase their bargaining power within the Opposition.

Two weeks ago, Matiang'i met Siaya governor James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Paul Ongili (Babu Owino) and Kisii senator Richard Onyonka. Sources indicate that he sought to persuade them to support his presidential bid in next year's election.

The meeting, which followed an earlier one with Edwin Sifuna at Matiang'i's private office in Karen, underscored the need for a united Opposition front against President William Ruto.

Sources say Matiang'i is seeking to strengthen his bargaining position within the United Alternative Government by convincing the Linda Mwananchi bloc to work together.

"Matiang'i first met Sifuna that week before holding a follow-up meeting with the rest of the Linda Mwananchi leaders later in the week. In both meetings, the former Interior CS proposed an alliance, arguing that Linda Mwananchi and the Jubilee party shared the vision of liberating the country," a source familiar with both meetings said.

The emergence of the Sifuna-Orengo axis within the Opposition power matrix complicates the Gachagua-Kalonzo strategy on power-sharing, with Sifuna viewed as a strong contender for the running mate position, a development that could diminish Matiang'i's chances.

Already, a team led by former Agriculture Minister Kipruto Arap Kirwa has been mandated to lay the groundwork for coalition building, with each opposition party represented by two members. The committee had been expected to brief the principals on preliminary proposals for identifying a single candidate, but the exercise has stalled.

While Matiang'i and Karua have called for verifiable scientific methods, including opinion polling, to identify the Opposition presidential candidate, Gachagua has advocated using regional voting blocs to determine the flagbearer, further exposing divisions within the coalition.

According to Karua, political negotiations alone are insufficient in determining the strongest candidate to face Ruto, insisting the process must reflect the views of Kenyans.

"It has never been political negotiations alone. Even in 2022, when I was chosen as running mate, it wasn't just the interviews. There was polling," she said.

Matiang'i shares the same view, saying his bid to become the Opposition flagbearer will be guided by what he calls scientific methods, emphasising a rational and transparent approach to selecting a leader.

"I will still use the scientific method to gauge my presidential acceptability. There must be a method that can be explained rationally. Even if it is a negotiation, it has to be explainable," Matiang'i said.

Another point of departure among Opposition leaders is the Ol Kalou by-election.

Although the leaders announced on June 3 that they would back a single candidate in the July 16 by-election as part of efforts to consolidate support, disagreements over which party should withdraw its candidate have seen each party continue campaigning independently.

In a statement, Opposition leaders led by coalition convener Kalonzo Musyoka said they had agreed to field one candidate through a consensus process.

"The candidate will be identified through an independent scientific survey and credible opinion polling to determine the aspirant best placed to secure victory and advance the interests of the people of Ol Kalou," Kalonzo said.

Among those seeking the Opposition's endorsement are Sammy Kamau Ngotho of DCP, Wilson Kigwa of Jubilee Party and Edwin Kariiri Muchiri of PNU.

The Jubilee party has insisted that the seat, which fell vacant following the death of John Kiaraho, belongs to it and that DCP should withdraw its candidate. DCP has rejected the proposal, maintaining that Nyandarua is one of its political strongholds.

As the two parties battle over the seat, Kalonzo appears to have moved ahead by assembling a presidential campaign team comprising former technocrats, seasoned political strategists, and veterans of previous Opposition campaigns.

While unveiling a 13-point presidential agenda to revive the economy, improve the lives of ordinary Kenyans and restore good governance, Kalonzo said the framework was designed to address the country's challenges while laying the foundation for sustainable growth and prosperity.

"This is a comprehensive policy framework anchored on the restoration of good governance, the rule of law and constitutionalism, charting a clear path towards a secure, productive and inclusive Kenya," he said.

Political analysts believe the apparent disunity within the Opposition could be a deliberate strategy to keep President William Ruto guessing so that by the time a single candidate is unveiled, he will have little time to mount an effective political campaign against that individual.

"I see this as a strategy rather than division. Even in previous elections, parties only unveiled their candidates a few months before the General Election, and that works against the incumbent because they have less time to attack the joint candidate. That could be why Ruto attacks all of them since he does not know who the eventual challenger will be," said Peter Mbae, DCP's Secretary for Planning.
However, advocate and governance analyst Amollo Simba says the differing positions adopted by Opposition leaders point to a different reality.

"One would have expected structured talks between the United Alternative Government and the Linda Mwananchi leaders involving all principals. But when you see Matiang'i emerging separately with these leaders, you have to wonder whether they are working as a team or operating in silos," Simba said.