Wetang'ula tightens grip on Western as Mudavadi stays away from local politics

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula addresses youth at his Namuyemba residence in Bungoma County, on June 7, 2026. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula is increasingly emerging as the dominant political figure in Western Kenya, steadily consolidating his influence and positioning himself as a potential presidential contender in 2032 amid the absence of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi from the local political scene.

As early succession politics begin to take shape ahead of President William Ruto’s anticipated departure at the end of a possible second term, Wetang’ula has intensified his engagements across Western Kenya. Accompanied by several governors, senators and Members of Parliament, the Speaker has received growing support from leaders who have openly endorsed him as the region’s preferred candidate to succeed Ruto.

In recent months, Wetang’ula has toured Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega and Vihiga counties, presiding over economic empowerment programmes spearheaded by local leaders. During these gatherings, he has consistently urged the Luhya community to remain united, support President Ruto’s re-election in 2027 and strengthen political partnerships with other regions to enhance its chances of producing Kenya’s fifth president.

His heightened visibility stands in contrast to Mudavadi’s subdued political presence following the dissolution of the Amani National Congress (ANC) and its merger into the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Since the beginning of the year, Mudavadi has largely avoided regional political activities, limiting his appearances to national functions and presidential development tours.

For decades, Wetang’ula and Mudavadi have been viewed as the principal political kingpins of the Luhya community. However, their influence is increasingly being challenged by a new crop of leaders led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who have mobilised supporters under the Linda Mwananchi movement, a splinter group associated with ODM.

Natembeya has repeatedly criticised the two leaders, accusing them of failing to deliver meaningful economic transformation to the region despite their long careers in national politics. Nevertheless, Wetang’ula appears to have adjusted his political strategy as Western Kenya begins positioning itself for the post-2027 political landscape.

His recent meetings have drawn influential leaders from outside the region, including President Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet, Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot and several leaders from the Gusii region, many of whom have publicly backed his presidential ambitions.

Speaking during an empowerment programme in Khwisero Constituency, Farouk Kibet dismissed the notion that the Luhya community cannot produce a president.

“It is not cast in stone that the Luhya nation cannot produce a president. We want the presidency to move from Rift Valley after President Ruto to Western Kenya because we have leaders with the ability and capacity to lead the country,” Kibet said.

From left: President William Ruto's aide Farouk Kibet, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa attend service at Bulimbo Catholic Church in Matungu, on February 22, 2026. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

He further described Wetang’ula as a capable leader with the qualities required to occupy the country’s highest office and encouraged him to continue working closely with President Ruto.

The Western Region MPs Caucus, led by Sirisia MP John Walukhe, has also rallied behind the Speaker. During recent events in Lugari and Navakholo constituencies, MPs Nabii Nabwera and Emmanuel Wangwe urged residents to support Wetang’ula, citing his leadership experience and suitability for national leadership.

Support for Wetang’ula has also come from Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa, both of whom have endorsed his potential 2032 presidential bid.

Despite the growing endorsements, Wetang’ula maintains that Western Kenya’s path to the presidency depends on unity and the cultivation of strategic alliances across the country.

“I have been in politics for a long time and I know winning the presidency requires unity and external support. We have supported leaders from other regions before and if we unite, we shall be able to seek support from Rift Valley, Nyanza, Mt Kenya and the Coast when our turn comes,” he said.

Cheruiyot echoed similar sentiments, arguing that Western Kenya’s loyalty to President Ruto should position the region to produce his successor.

“This community has stood with President Ruto and I have no doubt it will do the same in 2027. When he finishes his second term, leadership should move to Western Kenya and Wetang’ula has the experience and ability to lead,” Cheruiyot said during a fundraiser in Hamisi Constituency, Vihiga County.

However, Wetang’ula’s growing stature is expected to intensify competition within the region. The Speaker has reportedly been holding strategy meetings with local leaders at his residences in Bungoma and Nairobi following empowerment events as part of efforts to strengthen support for a future presidential run.

At the same time, Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya and Mudavadi remain influential figures within the broad-based government and are keen to maintain their political relevance ahead of the next electoral cycle.

Meanwhile, Natembeya and Sifuna have rejected suggestions that the region should wait until 2032 to pursue the presidency. The two leaders argue that Western Kenya should aggressively seek the top seat as early as 2027 and have accused Wetang’ula and Mudavadi of placing personal political interests above the region’s economic priorities.

The succession debate has also been complicated by increasing calls from Western leaders for the Deputy President’s position. Two weeks ago, more than 30 elected leaders led by Wetang’ula and Oparanya resolved that the vote-rich region deserves the country’s second-highest office in recognition of its support for the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The meeting was attended by Governors Fernandes Barasa, Kenneth Lusaka and Wilberforce Otichillo, among other leaders.

Their demands have opened a new front in national politics. Supporters of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki insist the position should remain in the Mt Kenya region, while Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has also been mentioned in discussions surrounding possible arrangements within the broad-based government.

Political analyst Dr Barack Muluka argues that the push for the deputy presidency could ultimately serve as a political fallback plan for Western leaders should their demands fail to materialise.

“We have leaders from Mt Kenya insisting that the deputy president position belongs to Professor Kithure Kindiki, while others are fronting Gladys Wanga. Western leaders know they may not get the slot and could use that rejection as justification to leave the Kenya Kwanza administration because of the hostility they are facing from the ground,” Muluka said.

According to the analyst, the current succession debate is less about preparing for the 2032 presidential race and more about ensuring political survival amid evolving alliances and shifting voter sentiments across the country.