Illusion of numbers: Underneath UDA numbers lies a damning truth

President William Ruto during a meeting with UDA aspirants for the 2027 General Election at State House, Nairobi on February 4, 2026. [PCS]

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) faces a critical test after its list of 2027 aspirants revealed a distribution pattern that has exposed the party’s soft underbelly.

President William Ruto and other party stalwarts have been chest-thumping that UDA is the face of the country and the nation’s heartbeat. However, more than 50 per cent of those seeking to contest under its banner hail from the President’s backyard in Rift Valley. Meanwhile, its former stronghold of Mt Kenya is stuttering, with markedly lower interest compared with the last elections.

Figures released by UDA and widely circulated show that, of the 12,000 applicants aspiring to be on the 2027 ballot and hosted by President Ruto at State House this week, a majority are from Rift Valley. Whereas the process has not been closed, the number thins compared to the more than 20,000 aspirants who expressed interest in the party in 2022.

Exactly 50 per cent of those eyeing the lucrative gubernatorial seats are from the region, signalling that elected leaders from previous UDA strongholds such as Mt Kenya are playing their cards close to their chests as August 8, 2027, draws near.

UDA’s fortunes appear to be waning in the Gusii region, which delivered 213,682 votes to President Ruto against Raila Odinga’s 394,103 in the last election. Only one aspirant registered in Kisii for the governor’s seat, while Nyeri attracted just two. Some key UDA die-hards expected at State House did not show up.

In Nyanza, where UDA is seeking to capitalise on a proposed pre-election pact with ODM, the presence of aspirants at State House threatens the political marriage. Leaders backing the broad-based government have called for zoning to prevent cannibalisation.

The picture is different in Nairobi and Nakuru, where the party’s appeal appears to be soaring. Nairobi registered the highest number of aspirants at 968, followed by Nakuru (691) and Nandi (628).

Despite receiving overwhelming support in the 2022 General Election, elected leaders sponsored by the ruling party are increasingly keeping their distance as political alignments take shape.

According to UDA data, the Mt Kenya region — which voted overwhelmingly for President Ruto in 2022 with more than 3.5 million votes — has attracted only 2,646 aspirants, representing 21 per cent of the total this is almost half the number that sought the party's ticket in 2022.

While aspirants scrambled for UDA tickets in 2022, many are now giving the party a wide berth. Counties such as Embu, Murang’a, Nyandarua and Laikipia registered zero gubernatorial aspirants, while Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Meru attracted just one each.

Only one woman representative aspirant expressed interest in Nyandarua, while just two sought the party’s Senate ticket. In Tharaka Nithi, home county of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, only two aspirants are seeking the UDA gubernatorial ticket. In Nyeri, only one person is vying for the woman representative slot on the party’s ticket.

Key Mt Kenya leaders were conspicuously absent from the State House meeting, including governors Irungu Kang’ata (Murang’a), Ann Waiguru (Kirinyaga), Joshua Irungu (Laikipia), Kimani Wamatangi (Kiambu) and Susan Kihika (Nakuru). Senators, MPs and woman representatives were also missing. Even close presidential allies such as Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi and Murang’a Woman Representative Betty Maina did not attend.

In Western Kenya — which helped Ruto defeat Azimio leader Raila Odinga in 2022 — Busia attracted zero gubernatorial aspirants, Vihiga one, Kakamega three and Bungoma four, with the party describing the figures as positive.

In a statement released on Thursday, UDA said Rift Valley and Mt Kenya continue to lead in the number of fully paid-up aspirants, a sign, it said, of strong grassroots confidence and organisational strength. Despite the numbers suggesting otherwise, the party struck an upbeat tone: “Even more encouraging is that Coast Region and Western Kenya are the most improved regions since 2022 in the number of paid-up aspirants.” The growth, UDA added, reflects “expanding trust, renewed energy, and a party that is steadily taking root across the country”.

Rift Valley also produced the highest number of MCA aspirants — 4,138 out of 10,000. For parliamentary seats, Nairobi led with 112 aspirants, followed by Nandi (104), Baringo (84) and Uasin Gishu (81). In the senatorial race, Nairobi led with 23, followed by Elgeyo Marakwet and Nandi with 15 each, while Nakuru had 13.

In some counties, no aspirant expressed interest in the UDA gubernatorial ticket, though interest was recorded in Senate, woman representative, parliamentary and MCA races. In Siaya, two aspirants are eyeing the governorship, while interest was also recorded across other elective positions. In Homa Bay, 252 aspirants turned up for the State House meeting seeking MCA tickets, 27 for parliamentary seats, five each for Senate and woman representative, and three for governor.

A storm is also brewing in the UDA-ODM bromance after aspirants from Nyanza trooped to State House. Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma issued a stern warning, describing them as self-serving politicians and saying they would not be tolerated.

He said that under the pre-election talks, ODM and UDA should refrain from fielding candidates in each other’s strongholds to avoid splitting votes. “The ODM-UDA pre-election coalition must have at least 75% of the MPs in the next election…,” he stated.

Kaluma added: “Those political rejects from ODM party strongholds who joined UDA as Aspirants for various seats should know we are too sharp for their self-seeking chicanery. Government is led from Parliament.”

Political analysts say that while hosting more than 10,000 aspirants projected strength, UDA risks pushback from former ODM strongholds and regions such as Mt Kenya. “After Gachagua’s impeachment, people from his region perceived his ouster as a betrayal…,” said analyst Pius Kinuthia, warning the President to tread carefully in Nyanza and within the broad-based arrangement.

ODM leaders have also cautioned that President Ruto may be seeking to weaken the party’s bargaining power in Nyanza. “Ruto is extremely cunning…,” said Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, urging leaders to strengthen ODM before engaging in talks with the President’s political wing.