Not so fast: How Azimio's revival has pushed ODM into a trap

ODM party leader Oburu Oginga. [File, Standard]

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could soon find itself in a serious dilemma because of its legally binding affiliation to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Azimio One Kenya Coalition, even as it hurtles towards forming a new alliance with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Legal experts say the party could struggle to join another coalition before properly exiting the existing agreement, which is still backed by a vocal faction within ODM.

“ODM cannot be in two political beds at the same time. In law, it is still bound to Azimio, and until it exits properly, any supposed deal with UDA is a political rumour, not a legal reality,” says Nairobi-based lawyer Chaka Sichangi.

He argues that ODM is being paralysed by paperwork rather than politics, trapped in a legal straitjacket of its own signatures that it cannot simply discard through a press conference or a roadside presidential declaration without complying with the law.

An internal war has erupted within Kenya’s largest opposition party, pitting loyalists of acting party leader Oburu Odinga against a powerful rebel faction.

The battle lines are drawn between abandoning the Azimio la Umoja coalition to run into the waiting arms of President Ruto’s UDA, or digging in to fight from within a reconstituted Azimio now headed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as party leader.

The crisis, brewing since the death of Raila Odinga, burst into the open on Monday night when former President Kenyatta, the Azimio chairman, jolted the political landscape by reconstituting the coalition’s leadership.

He removed Raila’s confidant Junet Mohamed as Azimio secretary general and replaced him with Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, an ODM lawmaker, while naming Musyoka as the new Azimio party leader.

“As a committed member of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), I refer to the late Raila Odinga's ("Baba") final statements prior to his passing. ODM remains a foundational member of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party, with the two entities inseparably linked,” says the new Azimio executive director Philip Kisia, who insists he does not want to be drawn into political sideshows.

Kisia replaced former nominated MP Raphael Tuju, who had also served as a Cabinet Secretary without portfolio in President Kenyatta’s administration and as Jubilee Party secretary general until 2018.

Hours after President Kenyatta’s bombshell on Tuesday, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna appeared on prime-time television to declare that the party remained firmly within the coalition.

“I can only speak authoritatively for ODM, because it is still a member of Azimio,” said Sifuna, quoting the party constitution and citing Article 85, which requires a two-thirds National Executive Committee (NEC) vote to quit a coalition — something that has not happened.

ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi described the much-publicised flirtation with UDA as “premature” and a dangerous gamble.

“We risk being politically disadvantaged. We must field our own presidential candidate,” Osotsi told The Standard, directly challenging Oburu’s plan to play second fiddle to Ruto in 2027.

Budget Committee chairman Sam Atandi, however, dismissed Kenyatta’s decision to appoint ODM MP Caroli Omondi as Azimio secretary general.

“We don’t recognise Caroli as an ODM member. He has formed his own party. He said that publicly. Even in his constituency, he has said he won’t defend his seat using ODM. So whatever he goes to do with Uhuru in Azimio is his own business, not our business as ODM,” said Atandi.

He termed the resurgence of Azimio petty political games, arguing that it died the day ODM pulled out, followed by Wiper and Jubilee.

“Azimio is a shell going nowhere. It is a ploy Uhuru came up with when he couldn’t ‘control’ ODM,” says Atandi.

He further claimed that Uhuru attempted to buy ODM members to regain influence through the back door using figures such as Sifuna, but that the plan failed.

Atandi insisted that ODM is a stable party with structures and can choose to work with the President or other parties — a decision, he said, that all members should respect.

Yet even as the party fractures, Oburu’s camp continues to cooperate with Ruto and his allies in the broad-based government.

Speaking in Dandora this week, ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga laid down the ground rules: a 50–50 power-sharing deal with UDA. “We will not accept anything less than an equal stake,” she declared to cheers.

The party is in legal dire straits, as Sichangi puts it. “It cannot legally date two people while still married to one.” ODM, he says, is still married to Azimio. To divorce, it must file the papers.

Those “papers” are a nightmare for a divided party. To exit the Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition, ODM must formally invoke the dispute resolution mechanisms and exit clauses contained in the coalition agreement.

The process requires compliance with the legal framework of the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties, including amending the agreement and formally registering the severance of ties.

Steps required include procedures outlined in the Third Schedule of the Political Parties Act, 2011, which governs how parties may exit coalitions.

“They have to first submit formal notification of their intention to leave to the Registrar of Political Parties, then pass resolutions through ODM’s National Executive Committee to officially sever ties. Only then can they formally amend the coalition agreement to reflect their departure,” says Sichangi.

In 2023, a letter allegedly severing ODM’s ties briefly surfaced, only for party officials to dismiss it as a fake.

As ODM tears itself apart, Kalonzo is seizing the moment, accepting the Azimio party leader role while promising principled leadership for national renewal and the resurrection of a viable opposition vehicle.

“Azimio is not a party of individuals, but of ideals,” Kalonzo posted on X, in a pointed dig at the transactional talks between ODM and UDA.

Political analyst Martin Andati says all the paths before ODM are perilous. Exiting Azimio for UDA, he warns, would trigger a massive split.

“Sifuna, Babu Owino and Osotsi have all threatened before to walk away, taking a significant bloc of MPs and voters with them. ODM would be diminished, entering a partnership with Ruto from a position of weakness, not strength,” says Andati.

He adds: “Staying in Azimio would mean a humiliating climb-down for Oburu Odinga and the pro-government faction. It would also mean submitting to a coalition now led by Kalonzo and engineered by Uhuru — a bitter pill to swallow.”

Andati argues that the current attempt to pursue both paths is unsustainable, leading only to deeper confusion, louder internal warfare and eventual collapse.