Why Opposition must name its leader by August 2026

Opposition leaders Eugene Wamalwa and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka addressing rally at Kimilili market in Bungoma county on July 4, 2025. [Benjamin Sakwa/ Standard]

In the high-stakes game of national politics, timing isn’t just a detail; it is the difference between a landslide victory and a crushing defeat. As we look toward the August 2027 General Election, the “United Opposition” finds itself at a crossroads.

While the incumbent president is already crisscrossing the country, utilising the full might of the State to campaign, the Opposition seemingly remains locked in a stalemate over a single important question: When should they name their flag-bearer?

There are three schools of thought currently causing friction within the coalition. The first group wants a candidate named without further delay. The logic is sound, as an early start allows a leader to build a national brand and gives donors the confidence to open their wallets.

It moves the conversation from being merely “anti-incumbent”, “wantam,” or “must go” to offering a concrete alternative. However, this strategy carries a heavy price. An early candidate risks becoming a stationary target for 18 months, giving the State machinery ample time to dig for dirt or launch legal challenges that could derail a campaign before it even starts.

On the other hand, some argue for a “late surprise” or naming a candidate next year just months before the vote. This will keep the incumbent shadow-boxing against an invisible opponent and protect the candidate from early character assassination.

But for a country with vast rural stretches, a “stranger” cannot win a marathon in a sprint. Without an indisputable massive national profile, a late entrant will struggle to build the elaborate grassroots network required to protect votes on Election Day.

Political sabotage

The most viable path forward is the middle ground, that is, naming the candidate in August this year, or exactly 12 months before the polls. Period.

In politics, you cannot beat “something” with “nothing”. By waiting until 2027, the Opposition risks allowing the incumbent to dominate the national narrative until it’s too late to change it. Conversely, launching today would likely lead to resource burnout and premature exposure to political sabotage.

August represents the ‘Goldilocks zone’ or just the right time. It provides a one-year window, which should be regarded as the gold standard for mobilising a national operation. This timeline will allow the various factions within the Opposition to settle their internal power-sharing disputes quietly over the next few months, ensuring that when the announcement finally comes, it will be a show of unity rather than a sign of a split.

By August, the incumbent’s current vigorous campaign will likely have hit a plateau. A fresh Opposition face at that moment would provide a “second wind” to the political cycle, effectively stealing the momentum just as the public begins to tune in seriously.

For the United Opposition, the choice is clear. They must stop the internal bickering forthwith and commit to the mid-term launch. A leader named this August will have the time to build a brand, time to explain how they will correct all the things that have gone wrong, the security to survive the onslaught, and the momentum to carry them across the finish line.

Mr Kinoti is an Author, Project Management Practitioner, and a Career Coach. [e-mail]