Zoning: Panic as ODM, UDA pact falls apart

President William Ruto and ODM party leader Oburu Odinga during Nyota business support programme in Kisumu on February 2, 2026. [Michael Mute, Standard]

ODM leaders hoping to secure zoning in their political arrangement with President William Ruto's UDA party have been thrown into limbo as the President’s fold intensifies their preparations for 2027 General Election.

The group includes those who have been relying on ODM’s wave and direct tickets to clinch seats with ease in Nyanza, Western, and Coastal regions. Through zoning, a section of the party leadership had hoped that UDA would not field candidates in areas considered ODM strongholds, as they also avoid UDA strongholds.

The Standard has established that zoning is a key plank that interim party leader Oburu Oginga-led brigade has prioritised in their proposed talks with the President’s party and are keen to lock out competition from areas they perceive as their strongholds.

That goal now appears a mirage, and a fierce contest between UDA and ODM aspirants looms across the perceived ODM strongholds. In Nyanza, for instance, the President’s troops are burning the midnight oil as they prepare themselves for a tussle for all the crucial seats in the region.

Part of the preparations entails an ongoing mass voter and ID registration across the region, spearheaded by Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo.

Moments after President Ruto hosted aspirants keen on flying UDA colours across the country this week, reality hit several ODM leaders anchoring their reelection plans on zoning after it emerged that more than 600 aspirants have expressed interest in running for seats in Nyanza on UDA party alone.

Among those who have joined the fray are experienced politicians and political operatives who understand the inner workings of ODM but have now opted to pursue their goals in UDA colours.

On Thursday, a section of ODM leaders poked holes in their bids even as they continued to drum up support for zoning to help reduce competition. While they claim zoning is the political masterstroke that will propel Ruto to success, UDA operatives opine that limiting competition will reduce voter turnout and maintain that all seats should be competitive.

According to Kisumu Deputy Governor Mathews Owili, ODM is strong and their space must be respected.

"We are a very strong party, and that is non-negotiable. If we have to go to any arrangement with anyone, they have to respect our space. We are not negotiating, and we must zone," said Owili.

Among those who have expressed interest in flying the yellow UDA colours in the next polls are former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, former Raila’s aide Silas Jakakimba, former LBDA chairman Odoyo Owidi, and businessman Andiwo Mwai.

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma described those who have opted to challenge ODM as political rejects as he continued rooting for zoning in the party’s strongholds.

“Those political rejects from the ODM party strongholds who joined UDA as aspirants for various seats should know we are too sharp for their self-seeking chicanery,” Kaluma said.

He claimed that for the ODM-UDA coalition to have at least 75 per cent of MPs, they must embrace zoning.

“Government is led from Parliament. The ODM -UDA pre-election coalition must have at least 75 per cent of the MPs in the next election. For this to happen, ODM will not field gubernatorial and parliamentary candidates in UDA bases; just as UDA will not field candidates in the ODM party strongholds, to avoid splitting votes and allowing competing political formation(s) to win those critical leadership seats,” Kaluma added in a Facebook post.

Another ODM legislator who asked not to be named also claimed that zoning is one of the key pillars that they must embrace to help secure the independence of parties.

He claimed that the party will respect UDA in areas where it commands significant support and will not field candidates.

“We want UDA to embrace zoning because we do not want unnecessary competition that might cause friction,” said the MP.

However, critics believe the zoning proponents belong to a group that won seats with minimal sweat after getting endorsements from Raila and are now fearing the prospects of competition.

Movement for Growth and Democracy (MDG) party leader David Ochieng warned that zoning is a bad idea that would lead to the death of political parties.

He argued that political zoning will suppress voters in the next general election, with voters feeling cheated.

“It kills political parties. It will tribalise boundaries from the way I hear people talking about it, yet our Constitution requires that our parties are national. It is not logical to say a party is only strong in this area and therefore it will not have candidates in a particular region. You are going against the Constitution,” the Ugenya MP argued.

Ochieng opined that political zoning ensures that most candidates who finally run for seats are not the most competent.

In Nyanza, critics have always mocked such candidates as 'osiem gi luth', which loosely infer to handpicked.

For some, so easy has been their quest to win seats with Raila’s backing and influence that they never printed campaign posters or campaigned for their seats after being handed direct tickets.

They belong to the group that benefited massively from the successive push by the ODM leadership for a six-piece voting pattern in favour of party candidates for all the seats, under the rallying call of building Raila’s troops at the national level and in counties.

Others walked a stress-free journey to elective seats after the late ODM leader and his closest allies brokered deals through negotiated democracy that saw some leaders opt out of races in favour of the selected candidates.

In the 2022 General Elections, for instance, nearly all close allies of the late ODM leader and party stalwarts were handed direct tickets to compete for seats. This was part of an effort implemented by the ODM party to avert fallouts from the costly party primaries. Consequently,  a few disgruntled competitors who had hoped to challenge for the party’s nomination bolted out to contest as independent candidates, while others backed out of the races.

But with ODM’s influence in the region, the defectors did not stand a chance as the party’s powerful campaign machinery, strengthened by a six-piece voting pattern in favour of party candidates, swept seats in the region with ease.

Among the leaders who were handed direct party tickets are governors Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu), James Orengo (Siaya), Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Simba Arati (Kisii), Ochillo Ayacko (Migori), and Homa Bay’s Gladys Wanga.

MPs Jared Okello (Nyando), James Nyikal (Seme), Rozaah Buyu (Kisumu West), Peter Kaluma (Homabay town), Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), Lilian Gogo (Rangwe), Eve Obara (Kabondo Kasipul), the late Ong’ondo Were (Kasipul), Senator Eddie Oketch (Migori), and Moses Kajwang (Homa Bay) were also beneficiaries of direct tickets, among others.

Save for Nyong’o, who is completing his second term, a herculean test awaits the rest of the leaders who will be seeking reelection as uncertainties continue to bog the Orange party.

According to lawyer Salim Odeny, zoning is a preserve of political parties with strong structures and enjoying overwhelming support in certain regions.

"Even if UDA were to allow zoning with ODM in Nyanza, that will not help ODM so much if it doesn't address the factors weakening it. Other parties will still field candidates in Nyanza. Even independent candidates will sail through in some electoral units in the region," he argues.