Kenya's trade deficit widens to Sh1.6tr on raised maize imports

Food items such as maize ballooned the country’s imports in 2025, further deteriorating the trade balance to Sh1.6 trillion. 

Data from the latest Economic Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that the trade balance worsened, with the country importing more than it exported. 

This saw the export-import cover drop to 40.4 per cent from 41.1 per cent in 2024. 

The value of imports in 2025 rose to Sh2.8 trillion, up from Sh2.7 trillion in 2024, while exports climbed to Sh967.9 billion, up from Sh932.2 billion. 

The value and quantities of maize, sugar and vegetable oils imported during the period increased. Other items that were imported in greater quantities during the period were cement clinker, plastics, iron and steel, petroleum products and structures and parts made of steel. 

“Import volumes in 2025 showed mixed trends compared to 2024. Imports of food commodities rebounded, with unmilled maize and sugar (including molasses and honey) rising by 51.4 per cent and 37.4 per cent to 468,100 metric tonnes and 520,700 metric tonnes, respectively, in 2025,” says the 2026 Economic Survey Report. 

It adds that the volume of imported industrial inputs and non-food commodities also showed mixed performance during the period. 

“The quantity of iron and steel imported grew by 50.7 per cent to 1,659,600 metric tonnes, while residual petroleum products more than doubled to 282,200 metric tonnes in 2025,” the report says. 

Similarly, the document notes that imports of chemical fertilisers rose by 10.2 per cent to 920,000 metric tonnes, while plastics, in both primary and non-primary forms, rose by 8.7 per cent to 698,100 metric tonnes in the same period. 

Total trade in the year slightly grew to Sh3.89 trillion compared to Sh3.82 trillion in 2024. “The trade deficit worsened in 2025, from Sh1.59 trillion in 2024 to Sh1.65 trillion. The deterioration was driven by faster growth in imports, which rose by 2.5 per cent, compared with a slight increase in total exports. As a result, the export–import cover ratio fell from 41.1 per cent in 2024 to 40.4 per cent in 2025,” reads the 2026 Economic Survey report. 

Over the period, the value of unmilled maize, excluding sweet corn, rose to Sh13.2 billion, compared with Sh10.1 billion in 2024. The value of imported sugars, molasses and honey increased by 29.5 per cent to Sh46.8 billion, compared with Sh36.1 billion. 

Similarly, the value of animal or vegetable fats and oils increased by 14.1 per cent to Sh158.8 billion in 2025 compared to Sh139.2 billion. 

“The  value of imported rice declined by 18.9 per cent to Sh55.1 billion, while unmilled wheat imports contracted by 51.3 per cent to Sh41.7 billion in 2025, reflecting reduced import volumes,” the report says. 

Expenditure on petroleum products fell by 7.4 per cent to Sh511.5 billion, primarily due to lower global oil prices and a relatively stable Kenyan shilling.

The country also imported more clinker, to the tune of Sh419.6 million, compared with Sh74 million in 2024, and iron and steel, whose value stood at Sh132.1 billion, up from Sh101.8 billion in the previous year. 

The report notes that expenditure on imports rose to Sh2.8 trillion in 2025, up from Sh2.7 trillion in 2024. 

This increase, it explains, was largely driven by higher spending on key import categories, particularly industrial machinery, which grew by 24.6 per cent to Sh389.9 billion; road motor vehicles, which increased by 33.1 per cent to Sh131.6 billion; and iron and steel, which rose by 29.8 per cent to Sh132.1 billion.