Analysts: Why Raila could prevail yet again

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga during an interview with 'The Standard' on February 28, 2023. [Stafford Ondego, Standard] On a day that marked the fifth anniversary of the handshake between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga, the latter launched his calls for mass action against President William Ruto's regime. Shortly after a joint address by the Azimio la Umoja - One Kenya Coalition party in Nairobi, President Ruto's administration found itself staring at the barrel of the Opposition's gun owing to the decision not to heed a 14-day ultimatum by Raila to open the IEBC servers for scrutiny and implement policies to, among others, lower the cost of living. And on Friday, Raila's supporters in Kisumu rallied in the streets in a show of defiance - a move that heralded the commencement of a journey that would culminate with the March 20 mega protest in Nairobi. Ruto has, however, more than once publicly dismissed the protests as an old-fashioned underhand tactic by Raila and his allies to force him into a handshake as he did his predecessor, and asserts he is not here for it. "We will have an opposition in Kenya. We will not have a handshake that creates a mongrel of a government where no one knows where the line is. I believe in the rule of law. I do not believe in handshake stories. I believe in an accountable government held to account by a responsible opposition. That is how Kenya is going to move forward," said Ruto at his Karen residence just hours after the Supreme Court upheld his election win last August. Raila, on the flipside, insists that his ratcheting up of pressure against the government has nothing to do with a clamour for power but a pursuit of electoral and social justice. "What I say during the day is what I say also at night. We are not looking for half a loaf and even under Uhuru's government, we did not even get a quarter of a loaf. The only time that we went into government was in 2008 when the (handshake) was negotiated by the international community," said Raila in a recent interview. History, however, reveals that this is not the first time that the opposition- more so Raila - has resorted to mass action as a means to a political end; the last three successive governments ranging from Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta have had to work with Raila to allow them deliver on their election pledges and complete their terms. The Saba Saba protests in 1990 which sought for a repeal of section 2(A)of the constitution to allow for multi-party democracy were the most notable during the Moi regime. In collaboration with other leaders such as Kenneth Matiba, Martin Shikuku, James Orengo, Philip Gachoka and Rumba Kinuthia, they staged defiance against the authoritative Moi government which ended in victory- in 1991, the section was repealed paving way for political pluralism. Years later in 2007, Raila would orchestrate protests against the Kibaki administration shortly after the disputed presidential election claiming he was rigged out of victory. The protests characterised by chaos, economic disruption and bloodshed in which more than 1,000 people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced. To contain the situation, Kibaki yielded to international pressure and thanks to closed door negotiations midwifed by former UN Secretary General Koffi Annan, a grand coalition government was birthed with both Kibaki and Raila at the helm - the latter as prime minister. History would later repeat itself in 2016 when Raila, again, this time under his Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) took to the streets to force out the then Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chair Issack Hassan and eventually he and his team negotiated their way out paving way for Wafula Chebukati's team of commissioners. Azimio la Umoja Leader Raila Odinga in Narok town. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard] And in October 2017, NASA coalition which had Raila as its candidate disputed Uhuru's re-election sparking protests in its strongholds. This even after abstaining from the re-run ordered by the Supreme Court, saying he would only do so after reforming IEBC. He would later form the National Resistance Movement in defiance of the Uhuru regime and would eventually be sworn in as the people's president - a move that forced the government of the day, which had Ruto as its deputy, to reconsider its approach to power sharing. Both Uhuru and Raila would later engage in negotiations that culminated the March 9, 2018 handshake, which saw Raila drop his hardline stance against the government even defending it on issues relating to corruption and the economy. Fast forward to 2023 and Raila has now given the greenlight for mass action across the country with pundits- and politicians alike- arguing that he is travelling down a familiar road whose outcome is almost predetermined. Political expert Tom Mboya opined that Raila is likely to have his way in having the key issues at the core of his protests addressed by the government. "We are seeing history repeating itself. Raila is in a position where he can hold the government to account. He will definitely bring the government to the table and based on previous experience something will come from it," said Mboya. He, however, ruled out the possibility of a handshake between the Head of State and the opposition leader. "Kenya is better off when we have an opposition. We should focus on the issues raised by Raila and not the handshake. The issues are prominent and if addressed Kenyans will benefit," added Mboya. Herman Manyora of the University of Nairobi is convinced that Raila would have his way since it has turned into the people's way. "We should not look at it as Raila's way but the people's way. Something to benefit Kenyans will definitely come out from Raila's resolve. I however do not think either Raila or Ruto wants a handshake and if does happen Kenyans will be annoyed and will revolt against the partnership," stated Manyora.

Analysts: Why Raila could prevail yet again

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