Hard questions after last-minute cancellation of State House talks

 

 Iran President Ebrahim Raisi. [File, Standard]

A planned visit by Iran President Ebrahim Raisi on Tuesday flopped after a last-minute cancellation, sparking speculations.

By last evening, reports were emerging of Kenya being entangled in the complex web of international politics as Western countries piled pressure on President William Ruto to reconsider the decision to host his Iranian counterpart.

Last month, the cancellation of the China Foreign Affairs minister’s visit to Kenya pointed to a larger geopolitical chess game. Raisi was set to arrive in the country to review and re-energise the two countries’ relations. But the meeting was called off in the morning by State House spokesperson Hussein Mohammed.

Their meeting was scheduled to take place at 9.30am at the State House, with the Press having been invited to cover the event.

After minutes at the gate waiting for clearance, Mohammed, in company of State House Press Secretary Emmanuel Talam, told the Press that the meeting would take place at a later date to be communicated.

Some minutes past one, an alert from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua to newsrooms indicated that Raisi would meet President Ruto at 7am today.

Dr Mutua said the schedule had been reviewed “to allow for finalization of key MoUs that are central to the furtherance of relations.”

The CS did not explain the nature of the problematic MoUs.

After meeting Dr Ruto, the Iranian President is expected to proceed to lay a wreath at the mausoleum of the late President Jomo Kenyatta before jetting out to other African countries.

Raisi was expected to fly from Kenya to Uganda and Zimbabwe on a historic African visit by an Iranian president in 11 years.

Questions have now emerged on who is to blame for the confusion. Was there a mix-up on the dates, or was it a diplomatic matter?

State visits are planned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at least a month in advance. According to the mandate of the ministry, Dr Mutua’s office is supposed to coordinate state and official visits and manage bilateral and multi-lateral relations.

Did the CS follow up on the scheduled visit and advise the President’s office that Raisi will not be landing or did the President’s communication office move ahead of themselves?

Iran has been a target of Western sanctions due to its alleged involvement in supplying military equipment, particularly drones, to Russia amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Kenya’s decision to engage with Iran may have raised eyebrows in the West capitals given its strategic importance and influence in Africa.

The West has imposed sanctions against Iran since 1979, targeting various economic sectors and individuals.

On July 6, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly accused the Iranian regime of oppressing its people.

“The UK has handed over extensive evidence to UNSC members demonstrating the Iranian regime continues to send weapons to the Houthis in Yemen and to Russia for use in Ukraine, in violation of UNSC restrictions. The UK and our partners will condemn this malign behavior in the presence of the Iranian Permanent Representative to the UN, who is anticipated to attend the event,” Cleverly said.

Top State officials told The Standard that they were holed up in a series of meetings to address the diplomatic test, and agreed to go ahead and host the Iranian President despite pressure from certain Western countries, which they declined to name.

The cancellation of the Chinese visit, coupled with the mounting pressure surrounding the Iranian visit, has raised suspicions about the underlying motives behind these developments.

The events, if related, reflect a broader struggle for influence between the East and the West, with Africa serving as a battleground.

Adding further intrigue to the situation is the upcoming meeting of the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) heads of state in South Africa next month. China and Iran have been actively promoting this meeting aimed at strengthenin ties with influential African leaders. The gathering is expected to be a platform for discussing regional cooperation and forging economic partnerships.

As Kenya grapples with these external pressures, the government finds itself at a crossroads, weighing its options and potential consequences of its decisions.

A former senior Foreign Affairs official said Kenya was a non-aligned nation. “The West will not not dictate who visits Kenya. Iranian vice presidents, about four out of seven, have previously visited the country and there has been no issue. Equally, US, UK and state officials of other countries have also visited,” said the former state official.

Kenya and Iran have maintained diplomatic relations since 1963, and although the trade volume between the two countries has been modest, they have collaborated in various areas such as education, culture and security.

Kenyan exports of tea and coffee, while Iran exports oil, carpets and machinery to Kenya.