Forecast: Dry spell to continue until May

Matungulu resident, Francis Musau in his maize farm in the outskirts of Tala town. [Erastus Mulwa, Standard]

Below-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa over the next three months.

This will mostly affect countries within the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) region between March to May.

This is according to the latest outlook released yesterday in Nairobi by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), European Union and Organisation of the Africa, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States (OACPS).

The release coincided with the 63rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 63).

The IGAD region stretches over an area that comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.

"Drier than average rainfall is indicated over the eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region," reads the forecast.

Speaking during the forum, Hussein Seid, a climate modelling expert at ICPA, said the March to May season contributes up to 60 per cent of rainfall over the eastern part of Kenya, Somalia and southern parts of Somalia and if it fails, it will be bad for the region.

"If you look at the forecast for the coming rains, we are expecting below average rainfall over those parts of the region, yet they have been experiencing below average rainfall for the past five consecutive seasons and this will be the sixth and we should take action," said Seid.

The government should mobilise resources to save lives, he said.

According to Seid, countries have information on weather patterns but no action is being taken.

"Together with the WMO, we have been providing information on different time scales from weekly to monthly for the past 25 years but what is missing is a lack of action. That is why we are still losing livestock and people continue to suffer," he said.

Environment CS Soipan Tuya said there is a need to enhance early warning systems due to the ongoing drought that has not been witnessed in the last 40 years.

"The Meteorological Department has been doing its best to contribute to the weather outlook. We are living below par in terms of the potential of our metrological department," Tuya said.

She said the agency has the support of the government of Finland to enhance the technology and capacity to relay early warning information that can be in step with the highly unpredictable weather and climate trends.

Kenya Meteorological Department director Dr David Gikungu said they are still working out the modalities of equipment and pricing proposal and called for government support.

Tuya added that the government has initiated discussions and is supposed to sign a letter of expression of interest in upgrading the Met department.

The CS also said there are plans to enhance participatory forest management by bringing the communities at the core of ecosystem management. The incentives include enterprise models and carbon markets.

"We are at an advanced stage of developing carbon markets legal framework and guidelines to ensure transparency," said the CS.

She added: "Kenya is known as the leading country in carbon market trading in Africa but there is very little transparency in terms of how this is happening on the ground. That is why we want to improve the market to be of high integrity and quality, earn revenue for the country and the communities to benefit."

The forecast says increased probabilities for wetter than average rainfall are indicated over cross-border areas of South Sudan and Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and a few places in Tanzania.

"Models have no confidence over north-western Kenya, eastern and south-western Uganda, parts of eastern South Sudan, Burundi and northern Tanzania."

The chance of getting 400mm or more during March to May is lower than historical by up to 30 per cent over areas in western Kenya Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and western Ethiopia. Longest dry spell lengths are expected over Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.

Long-term rainfall deficits and widespread drought are expected to remain over the region, especially in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

Forecast outputs from seven Global Producing Centres (GPCs) were processed using three approaches to fit the climate of the GHA.

Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region and the highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern areas of Tanzania.