What's causing turmoil in the Sahel?

Residents of Niger’s capital, Niamey, gather to protest the coup that ousted President Mohammed Bazoum. [Niger Presidential Office/Facebook]

The Scramble for Africa is one of the most famous topics in history right from primary school to university.

The topic has gained new relevance with Africa being contested for again by the great powers. Africa is like a beautiful girl that never ages, endlessly attracting suitors. 

Let’s poke our nose into the past a bit. Two major powers - Britain and France got the biggest part of Africa. Size is measured in land mass and population controlled.

Before them, other scramblers had had their time in Africa. 

The Portuguese had come 384 years before the Berlin conference in 1884. The Arabs much earlier through religion and trade.

They came and stayed, making a lasting impact. Our coast is Islamic and Swahili has a heavy Arabic influence.  The Portuguese were in Africa for almost 500 years; in Angola and Mozambique, where they retreated after Arabs chased them from Mombasa and its neighbourhood after 200 years.

Britons were in East Africa for about 70 years but had more impact than the Portuguese. The reason could be that the Portuguese stayed along the coast and their influence was limited. Back to the two powers.  Colonies under France and Britain took different trajectories after their independence.

The two powers had different objectives for colonialism. France, it seems wanted to extend France to Africa with language, culture and mannerisms. They called it assimilation.

This system alienated ordinary citizens who were unlikely to be assimilated. That planted the seeds of the current political problems in former French colonies.

In British colonies, there was also some assimilation; think of the names we acquired and new religions. What was before table manners?  In the race to get assimilated into the French system, leaders became institutions themselves. 

That made it easy for the French to get what they wanted - trade or natural resources. The key institutions from banks to the military or schooling were beholden to France.

When I schooled with French West Africans, that was very evident. Paris is their economic Mecca.

After 60 years, the West African States and their institutions have hollowed out. That’s why the coups are taking place. The military is seen as the only institution that can be trusted and make a difference.

The climatic change and population growth have added pressure for a quick solution to countries’ economic problems. The countries going through coups rank highly on the poverty scale. Think of a country that is all like our arid and semi-arid areas. 

Poverty creates political instability. Ever heard of communal violence in Runda, Muthaiga or Karen? The turmoil in West Africa has economic roots. But politics and too much control stifled economic growth. 

There is another catalyst for political turmoil. The new Cold War.

ECOWAS Senegalese troops in Gambia in 2017. West Africa’s regional bloc has threatened the use of force in reinstating the president of Niger. [AP photo]

It is an unintended consequence of the Ukraine war. Russia is using Ukraine to recover and project power that was lost after the old Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. She is using a model beloved by modern capitalists, outsourcing. The Wagner group seems like the private wing of the Russian military, able to reach out where it’s needed and when needed. The newest destination is West Africa, the Sahel. 

A drowning man will clutch to a straw. The hollow nations of West Africa will clutch to any helper, including the Wagner group. They are battling Islamic rebels emboldened by their hollowness. The site of Nigeriens waving the Russian flag on the streets after the coup was not a comedy.

Build institutions

It demonstrates how determined Russia is to export her influence, and is willing to use the barrel of the gun. Remember Syria before that? If the French had built strong institutions, the Sahel and the rest of West Africa would be more prosperous, and more stable, less beholden to individuals. 

I hope I am not biased but Britons tried to build institutions.

They even rode on existing institutions. Remember the indirect rule?

The local chiefs and principalities in India? This system ran the empire in India and West Africa, notably the vast of Nigeria. Maybe, Britain respected traditional institutions because it’s a kingdom unlike France which was very republican after the revolution.

Why did Britons do away with our kingdoms as they kept theirs? I could be Prince Iraki or Duke of Somewhereshire. When Uhuru came and Britain let her colonies go. They went through the learning curve much earlier. Remember coups in Ghana, Nigeria and Uganda? 

We are not beholden to the UK like West Africa to France. We have built and tested our institutions. Annulling the polls in 2017 was the best thing for Kenya. We can now handle any political crisis. 

The former French colonies seem to have avoided “dilution” by other influences like Chinese, Americans, and Indians among others. Which foreign influence is dominant in Kenya? The political crisis in the three former French colonies will not be sorted overnight.

It will take time to build new institutions that outlast individuals. My fear is that West Africans could replace France with another master, Russia and her strategic interests.

It’s the ordinary citizens who bear the brunt of these power games. Russia could prolong the building of institutions by supplanting her own systems incompatible with hosts. The contrast between the UK and France is evident at their highest levels of government. In the UK, the current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak came from one of the British colonies. Can the same happen in France? 

A bigger concern is the domino theory that more West African countries will fall into the Russian orbit. Will the West - read the US - and her allies stop that when Europe is under threat from Russia? Is the Ukraine war part of a Russian grand strategy to regain power and influence beyond her borders?  The Russian success in the Sahel has rattled the West, which is unlikely to act.

The ghosts of Afghanistan and Vietnam are yet to be exorcised. Russia is more likely to use force than the West. Remember Syria again? We had predicted that the Ukraine war was a means to a new world order. And Africa, it seems is part of that new order.