New demos: What's the end game?

Police engage protesters in Kitegela town during anti-government demos. [Peterson Githaiga, Standard]

Twenty-four hours after maandamano (demos), the city went quiet. It’s as if what we saw in the media was a movie or a bad dream.

Yet the smell of tear gas, explosions or its canisters or what sounded like bullets from afar left the city on the edge. Curiously, the traffic was heavier than expected despite the rise in fuel prices.

That is easy to explain. Thursday was a double day. What was postponed on Wednesday was carried out on Thursday, which had its own activities.

The quick return to normalcy is not so surprising. Did it mean someone is in control of demonstrators; able to switch them on or off? Or did the government’s reaction leave demonstrators in fear? 

It’s paradoxical that in hard economic times, the cause of demos brought back normalcy. Demos could lead to more economic suffering.

Think of the rivers of men and women on Waiyaki Way, Thika Road, Mombasa Road or Lang’ata Road in the morning or evening. A day means a lot to them. It could make a difference between starving and getting a meal. 

The demos' aftermath is not something to write home about. One life lost is too much. Let’s try and shed some light on maandamano, which has two faces; political and economic. Let’s start with the political one.

The ghosts of 2022 and 2027 polls haunt the nation. The results of the 2022 poll left the two political contestants with enough angry followers under their command.

The winners feel they got it legitimately and losers should stop whining. The losers contest the win and feel it was theirs.

Though the vote count gave us a winner, psychologically it did not. 

And my view is that the winners and losers have not done enough to close the gap of political mistrust. 

The constitution has lots of rewards for winners and nothing for those who fail to win (not lose). And any attempt to remedy that has not worked. Could BBI (Building Bridges Initiative) have sorted that?

Will constitutional amendments sort that out? Uhuru Kenyatta sorted this problem with the handshake. It dissipated the political tension.

Mwai Kibaki had the national accord. Moi had no time for such compromises, the constitution gave him enough power. Will President Ruto follow his two predecessors or Moi? That’s what everyone is waiting to see.

 National anger

He has said no to handshake while the 2010 constitution stripped him of lots of power compared with Moi.

How will he dissipate the national anger - both for losers and winners (hustlers) who feel the promised economic dividends are yet to come? 

He has talked tough, and one hopes he will not overact. Using State power is tempting but that could trigger fear.

Yet economic growth loves freedom, which unleashes national creativity and innovation. Is freedom not what drove Kibakinomics?

Will Ruto wait for Raila’s political injury to get pus? What will be happening in between? You know the pains of trying to sort an injury before pus sets in. 

Let’s look at the economic face of maandamano, which complicates matters more. It’s ingenious to hinge protests on economics; high cost of living, taxation and joblessness.

Any economist knows this can’t be sorted overnight through a national accord or handshake.

And unlike the poll results that affected mostly the elite, the economy affects everyone every day.

We must eat and sleep and take care of other basic needs. And for a country where welfare is rare, the economic pangs are deeply felt. 

More poignantly, unlike politics which both Raila and Ruto have some control over, not economics. Who has control over Covid-19, the war in Ukraine or the rains? Foreign exchange?  

The demos are over economic issues that can’t be sorted overnight. It will take years to create enough jobs with the population still growing.

It’s easier to create a job seeker than a job. Hope you are not waiting for an explanation on that! 

And inflation is not slowed with a switch. To make matters worse, the 2022 polls were about economic promises and more so for the downtrodden, the hustlers.

The truth is that a mixture of political and economic anger is potent. 

What’s the end game?

A political solution is the best option for now. What can President Ruto give Raila to pacify him and his followers? The two should learn from golf tournaments where a reward awaits the worst player (piga mingi).

It’s usually given to the second-worst player to stop players from deliberately getting it! 

Can Ruto boldly get us a government of national unity? This will appear as an appeasement to the hardliners but it’s statesmanship. It will give Ruto the space to solve the economic problem, which needs more time.

He probably fears such a deal will become his political soft underbelly - ask Uhuru Kenyatta. Such a government will annoy lots of elite and pseudo-elites (name them). But it will allow the nation to exhale.

 National unity

And it will not be a handshake or a national accord. Lawyers can explain if the constitution allows a government of national unity. Will Ruto dilute his own power? 

The alternative is a stalemate that will drag down the economy and fuel more anger as we approach 2027. Ruto could say, around 2027 ”I brought the nation together and now give me a second term to consolidate my economic agenda.”

Families, friends, communities and nations come together in times of crisis. Why can’t we as a nation? 

Dr Ruto will have removed the wind from his contestant’s political sail. If the current stalemate continues into 2027, the economy, which was a big issue in 2022 could be a hot potato and could determine the winner. The journey to 2027 is on and visible through the fog of maandamano. 

Ruto could also bring a constitutional amendment to remedy the winner-takes-all political system. Can he change a system that favours him? The president has no shortage of choices. But whichever one he takes, the long shadow of an economy in crisis hangs over his regime.