Gachagua's challenge as rivals defy his Mt Kenya dominance

Jubilee presidential candidate Fred Matiangi and People's Party of Kenya Party Leader Ndindi Nyoro address residents after attending a church service in Rongai on October 25, 2026.  [Peterson Githaiga, Standard]

The battle for political influence in the Mt Kenya region is increasingly becoming a test of whether the opposition can unite behind a common cause or competing ambitions will weaken its chances of challenging President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.

Former Deputy President and DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua has positioned himself as the Mt Kenya political kingpin, warning emerging opposition parties against establishing a foothold in what he considers his political backyard.

Despite Gachagua’s efforts to ring-fence Mt Kenya, Jubilee Party presidential aspirant Fred Matiang’i, PPK leader Ndindi Nyoro and PLP leader Martha Karua continue holding rallies in the region, thus exposing the growing disagreements within the opposition.

The leaders presence in Mt Kenya, despite weeks of verbal confrontation with Gachagua, raises questions about the limits of his influence and whether the opposition can accommodate competing political interests.

Gachagua has repeatedly described emerging parties in the region as “wheelbarrows,” suggesting they are vehicles being used by President Ruto’s allies to divide the opposition and weaken his political base.

Matiang'i and DP leader Justin Muturi have accused Gachagua of allegedly bullying other opposition leaders.

During a meeting with a delegation of aspirants from Nakuru county in Wamunyoro on Wednesday, Gachagua welcomed all rival political parties to compete freely, dismissing the idea of political zoning.

“There is no zoning in this region. As for all those small ‘wheelbarrows’ (a reference to UDA allied parties), the ones from Laikipia, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, PNU, Jubilee and even the big ‘wheelbarrow’ of UDA. Do not claim that you are being bullied. We will bully you democratically at the ballot box,” Gachagua said.

The DCP leader maintains that he is not imposing a single-party rule on Mt Kenya voters. He, however, insists that politics is about numbers and he will work with Linda Mwananchi's Edwin Sifuna and Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka to defeat President William Ruto in 2027. 

“Don’t accuse me of imposing one political party on the region. Matiang’i and Muturi, you also call for meetings here and tell the people that this is your zone. Then let the citizens choose between me and you,” he said.

The contradiction between welcoming political competition and warning rival parties against dividing the region has become central to the debate surrounding Gachagua’s leadership.

Political risk analyst Didmus Mokua argues that Gachagua is using the period before the 2027 General Election to consolidate his influence beyond Mt Kenya and establish himself as the country’s leading opposition figure.

“Mr Rigathi Gachagua is a pragmatic politician who has converted a lemon into a lemonade and desires to use the period before the 2027 General Election to pronounce himself as the de facto Mt Kenya leader and de facto opposition leader,” Mokua says.

He believes that Gachagua’s strategy is aimed at turning Mt Kenya into a region dominated by a single political party.

“Mr Gachagua wants to convert Mt Kenya into a one-party region. That is why he is branding politicians that are not dancing to his drumbeats as traitors and proactively associating political parties that are not aligned to his selfish political interests as small wheelbarrows.”

Mokua argues that such a strategy could undermine the very democratic principles the opposition claims to defend.

“Mr Gachagua wants to suffocate multiparty democracy in Mt Kenya. He has a poor appetite for political competition and is the single threat to opposition unity.”

The emergence of parties such as Jubilee, PPK, PLP and DCP has created a new political landscape in the region, where voters and politicians are increasingly being offered alternative platforms.

For Mokua, this development should be seen as an opportunity rather than a threat.

“The emergence of multiple political parties in Mt Kenya gives politicians and voters agency and choice.”

The decision by Matiang’i, Nyoro and Karua to hold a rally in the region has demonstrated that opposition leaders are not prepared to surrender their political ambitions to Gachagua.

Their message was one of unity, with Matiang’i warning that those hoping to see the opposition divided would be disappointed.

“To those people betting on us not being united. Listen to me. You’ll lose your bet. Our work is to ferry Ruto home because he can’t do the work,” the Jubilee presidential candidate said.

He cautioned against allowing ethnic divisions to interfere with efforts to build a united political front.

“When leaders fail to reach an agreement and the scourge of tribalism enters the mix, it will ruin our country,” he said.

The rally was significant because it showed that, despite their differences with Gachagua, the three leaders remain committed to building their own political networks in the region.

Mokua believes their decision could inspire other opposition leaders who feel constrained by Gachagua’s growing influence.

“Dr Matiang’i, Nyoro and Karua political rallies despite Gachagua pressure is a statement of opposition leaders who are not ready to kiss the king’s ring under duress.”

He says that the move could create a wider political movement against what he describes as Gachagua’s attempts to control the opposition.

“This singular action will inspire confidence to politicians and political actors suffocating under Gachagua pressure and create a bandwagon effect.”

Gachagua has also alluded to the possibility of leaving Kenya should Mt Kenya voters fail to maintain a united political front.

In a media interview, the former Deputy President suggested that he would have little motivation to remain in the country if the region’s political support was fragmented by competing interests.

“If our people allow themselves to be divided, I will just board a plane and go to the US. I have a home there,” he said.

He further indicated that he had played his part in rallying the region behind a common political position and would not accept blame if local leaders and voters chose a different path.

“I have tried to unite the region, so no one will ask me any question. No one will ask me the reason for fleeing. I will just go to America with my people because I have a home there,” he said.

Mokua interprets the remarks as an attempt to position Gachagua as the ultimate defender of Mt Kenya’s interests.

He argues that the former Deputy President has increasingly personalised his political disagreements with President Ruto, presenting them as a betrayal of the entire region.

“President Ruto did not betray Mt Kenya. Gachagua was impeached by the two houses of Parliament.”

The analyst further argues that Gachagua’s accusations against rival politicians do not necessarily establish their loyalty or disloyalty to the opposition.

“Mr Gachagua is not the foundation of truth and has no capacity to establish opposition politicians and actors’ loyalty and interests.”

He says the branding of rival politicians as moles is a political messaging strategy aimed at discrediting those who refuse to join DCP.

“Gachagua brands political actors and politicians moles does not make them moles.”

The growing confrontation in Mt Kenya presents the opposition with a difficult choice: whether to accommodate competing political ambitions or risk entering the 2027 election divided.

While Gachagua fears that competing parties could divide his political base, other leaders see the growing diversity as an opportunity to expand the opposition’s reach.

Ultimately, the region’s voters will decide whether to rally behind one political party or embrace a multiparty arrangement.

As Mokua observes, Mt Kenya voters may choose to exercise their individual and regional agency by reviewing their own interests before deciding who to support in 2027.

The question is whether the opposition can respect that choice while still building a united front against President Ruto.

For now, the wheelbarrow debate has become a symbol of a much larger struggle: whether the opposition can unite through persuasion and shared political ideas, or whether the battle for leadership will leave it divided before the next election.