Why Ol Kalou and 2027 are keeping me awake at night

As we head to the 2027 general elections, let's keep it in mind that history has no manners. It's a fact that's keeping me awake at night and I hope am not alone, tuko wengi.

Let us contextualise the road to 2027 polls.  Multipartyism came to Kenya in 1991 when section 2(a) of the old constitution was repealed.

The presidential term was limited to two terms, each five years.  KANU’s monopoly on power came to end.

Aside from political liberalisation, the economy too was liberalised as price controls also came to an end.

Give credit, managing both economic and political liberaliation at the same time could tax any leader’s ingenuity. And that's what Daniel Arap Moi was experiencing.

The Kenyan situation at that time mirrored the end of communism in Russia. Remember glasnost and perestroika? China handled the end of the cold war very different from Russia. We can see the difference today.

KANU, used to monopoly of power for three decades faced its moment of truth. The party was so powerful that it could change voting to mlolongo, queuing behind your favorite candidate.

That seemed transparent until you went to court and told to recreate the queue!

It was such a powerful party that I had to join it! To get my national ID after high school, I paid Sh20 for that year and the previous year’s subscription. Patients paid for party membership to be treated.

I still keep my KANU card, a chilling memory on Kenya’s dark political past. KANU’s three decades of power monopoly still haunt our no longer young nation.

Most of our current leaders have KANU’s political blood and still see centralisation as the best economic and political models. Yet, making Kenya a one-party state in 1982 was a political mistake we still pay for.

KANU in its cunning wisdom argued the constitution change could not be applied retroactively. That allowed the incumbent president to start afresh, giving him another 10 years.

Is that the reason why the constitutional change is frequently floated?  Just asking.

The change in the constitution deflated national anger, but did not end it. Through political divisions Moi won in 1992 with about 37 per cent of the votes. 50 plus 1 was not in the constitution.

Then came 1997 and he needed a second term. Sounds familiar?  The anger over KANU misrule was still there. A divided opposition lost.

Moi got 40 per cent as while other candidates such as Mwai Kibaki garnered 31 per cent and Raila Odinga got 11 per cent. It was division within the opposition that cost them victory, they got 60 per cent.

This makes me think, will the current opposition stay united or face the same fate in 2027?  Could there be “political balloons” that will be pricked before August 2027 through defections and mergers? Are there political trojan horses lying in wait like malware viruses?

But in the 1997 election, there was something else more sinister that left families and communities devastated, especially in the Rift Valley; violence.

The tribal clashes targeted the opposition strongholds. Lots of voters were displaced, some died. The weapon of choice was bows and arrows, traditional enough but deadly enough. The violence which was low key made to appear like “domestic affairs” achieved its objective, a political victory which lasted for one term as opposition came together and took power in 2002.

Why drag Ol Kalou into all this? Mature politics is about persuasion, selling your agenda to the voters. What if they reject it?  You have three choices. One, accept your fate and let others take power from you.

That is not for politicians who hold to power like members of a cult. Two, buy or bribe voters. Give them money, public goods or promises. 

What if they reject bribes, public goods and promises as they did in Ol Kalou?  You can victimise or ostracise them but you run the risk of giving them sympathisers.

If these tactics fail, one weapon remains; use fear and violence. And that is my fear. That if voters refuse to be bribed as they did in Ol Kalou, the vote seekers could use low key violence to sow fear just like 1997.

Is that what abductions are all about?  Is that what goonism is all about? Bad enough to sow fear but not bad enough to attract international attention and anger.

If I slap my neighbour, I will most likely be arrested and taken to court. Why such lackluster response to young men carrying weapons in broad daylight?

Some of the perpetrators of 1997 chaos still walk free on this small planet. The goons walk free too. 

Their weapons are rungus and machetes, ordinary tools that seem innocent until unleashed on innocent citizens.

High unemployment and hopelessness mean the pool of recruits is big, almost inexhaustible.

I was old enough to watch the turn of events in 1997 and 2007 and listen to eye witnesses. We should not allow history to repeat itself, let us teach history some manners.

There seems to be a silent undertaking that the public can be the collateral damage in the fight for political power. 

The violence of 1997 and 2007 affected families and lives. I recall with profound sadness; the first architect in my village was a victim of post-election violence. He died young and innocent before his impact was felt.

My fellow countrymen, we can’t talk of Singapore and first world status when politically instigated violence stalks the nation.

Beyond skyscrapers and roads, developed countries are known for co-existence, peace and mature politics, issue-based discussions and for the maximum good for the maximum number of citizens.

 At 63 years, we are a mature nation, we must stop seeing each other as enemies but as co-creators of the Kenyan dream.

Our leaders owe us a clean and peaceful election 2027.  The Genz protests was enough violence. I want to sleep soundly this year, 2027 and beyond. Who can assure me enough to buy an extra blanket?