Ruto's rating drops to 24

President William Ruto [File]

President William Ruto would garner a paltry 24 per cent of the vote if elections were to be held today, according to a polling survey conducted by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), which is much lower than the 32 per cent he received from another polling two weeks ago.

More worringly, his main rivals Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna  follows with 15 per cent appears to be edging forward having received three more points from the 12 polled by InforTrack Research. He is narrowly ahead of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i at 14 per cent.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyokastill commands the same 13 per cent support in both polls, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua stands at 7 per cent and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has 2 per cent support. One in five respondents (20 per cent) remain undecided.

TIFA observed that although Ruto maintains the lead, his support remains well below a majority, suggesting the opposition still has an opportunity if it succeeds in rallying behind a single candidate. The survey also notes that Sifuna has recorded the fastest growth among opposition figures, rising from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026.

The June 2026 TIFA survey, was conducted among 2,048 respondents across all 47 counties. It paints a picture of an electorate that remains deeply divided over political parties, the Broad-Based Government, and the shape of the opposition heading into next year's elections.

On political party popularity, ODM remains Kenya's most supported party with 20 per cent, followed closely by UDA at 17 per cent. The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has emerged as the third-largest political force with 12 per cent, ahead of Jubilee at 11 per cent and Wiper at 8 per cent, while DAP–Kenya and Ford each hover at between 1 and 2 per cent across all survey waves. While support for other parties has fluctuated, peaking at 5 per cent, a large proportion of respondents (28 per cent) said they do not identify with any political party.

The survey also shows that support for UDA and ODM has declined significantly since the 2022 General Election, while DCP is emerging as a major challenger.

The survey also reveals growing public dissatisfaction with the Broad-Based Government arrangement between President Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. According to the findings, 52 per cent of Kenyans oppose the arrangement, compared with 30 per cent who support it, while 15 per cent have no opinion and 4 per cent are unaware of the political cooperation.

TIFA's last five surveys reveal that, apart from November last year, support for the Broad-Based Government among Kenyans has remained just below one-third, ranging from 22 per cent in May 2025 to 29 per cent in August 2025.

 The current level of support (30 per cent) is identical to that recorded in May, suggesting that the continuing split within ODM over support for the President's re-election bid, and related matters, has created a fairly stable "ceiling" on how much support the Broad-Based Government can attract.

Within ODM itself, the poll indicates that the party's internal divisions continue to favour the Linda Mwananchi faction. Among ODM supporters, 74 per cent back the group associated with Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, while 20 per cent support the rival Linda Ground faction aligned with the Broad-Based Government.

 This suggests that ODM supporters are consolidating behind the Linda Mwananchi position, while support for the alternative Linda Ground faction continues to decline.