Life after Raila: Can the Odinga family hold onto political power?

It is a political dynasty that has stood the test of time but is now facing an ultimate test as the siblings and children of the late Raila Odinga struggle to break away from his shadow to build their own political powerhouses.

For more than three decades, the political successes of Raila’s kin that helped bolster the Odinga dynasty relied largely on Raila political clout. He was the dependable captain of the team, tagging his kin along in his political exploits and modelling them to build their own careers.

His influence shaped electoral outcomes, defined the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and produced a loyal support base that has often voted as much for Raila as for the candidates he endorses.

But following the demise of Mr Odinga, members of his family are confronting a difficult political reality on how they can win and sustain political careers on their own merit, or whether they will forever be viewed through Raila's towering political legacy.

The question is becoming increasingly relevant as Ruth Odinga prepares to enter the race for the Kisumu governorship while her elder brother Oburu Oginga continues seeking to cement his influence within ODM and the larger Luo political landscape.

Unlike previous elections where the Odinga name alone carried enormous political weight, the political environment heading into the 2027 General Election appears more competitive and less predictable.

A new generation of leaders is emerging, demanding issue-based politics, while ODM itself is undergoing gradual internal transformation following Raila's evolving national role.

For Ruth Odinga, the Kisumu gubernatorial race represents perhaps the biggest political test of her career. Although she has served as deputy governor and Member of Parliament, she now faces the challenge of convincing voters that she represents more than the continuation of the Odinga political brand.

Her opponents are likely to frame the contest as a choice between political renewal and continuity, forcing her to defend not only her personal record but also the broader legacy of the county administration.

Oburu Oginga faces a different but equally significant challenge. His own pursuit is faltering after he managed to successfully split ODM by leading the quest to kick out former loyal servants of Raila led by deposed Secretary General Edwin Sifuna.

Within ODM, critics believe Oburu has lost the plot as he continues to drag the party towards President William Ruto’s government. According to Siaya Governor James Orengo, Oburu is on a mission to kill Raila’s ODM party.

“He has failed and we do not recognize him. He is a puppet for the UDA regime,” says Orengo in an interview with The Standard.

Despite decades in public service as a former MP, assistant minister and now senator, his political career has often unfolded alongside the late Odinga's towering presence. While respected as one of the family's senior political figures, he has rarely escaped comparisons with his younger brother, whose charisma and national appeal dominated Kenyan politics since independence.

He has been flipflopping, leaving both friend and foe puzzled. A few months ago, Oburu stirred a political storm after declaring interest in the presidency at the 2027 General Election, just less than a week after announcing that he would defend his Siaya Senate seat.

Oburu said he will contest for the country’s top seat should he receive the ODM party’s backing.

He exuded confidence in his ability to take on any presidential candidate, citing his vast political experience and long service in national leadership. But he has also made it clear that he is defending his senatorial seat.

In an interview with The Standard, former Alego Usonga MP Sammy Weya said leadership also demands honesty, renewal, and the courage to know when it is time to pass the baton.

"Oburu now serves as the Party Leader of ODM, a party painstakingly  built over decades through sacrifice, resilience, and tireless work by Raila Odinga and millions of supporters across the country. That responsibility alone is enormous and requires full attention, energy, strategic focus, and national unity-building," said Weya.

He argued that if Oburu was unwilling to dedicate himself fully to rebuilding, reorganising, and strengthening ODM after Raila’s transition from active party leadership, then he should have declined the position from the outset.

"A few weeks ago, the country heard him express presidential ambitions. Today, he says he will defend the Senate seat. Such inconsistency sends confusion to the people and raises legitimate questions about the direction of leadership within ODM," he said, adding that Oburu has lost touch with the current political reality and the aspirations of the younger generation.

While Oburu assured party members of a free and fair nominations, the former lawmaker argues that there will be no fair democratic nomination contest within ODM for the Siaya Senate seat.

"The direct nomination route appears predetermined," he said.

Political analysts argue that the Odinga family is now entering a transition similar to those experienced by other influential political dynasties across Kenya. While family names provide instant recognition and established political networks, they can also become burdens, creating expectations that are difficult to meet independently.

The  ODM succession debate further complicates matters.

As younger leaders seek greater influence within the party, the Odinga family must navigate changing political alliances while proving that leadership should be earned through performance rather than heritage.

Another challenge lies in shifting voter expectations. Younger voters increasingly demand tangible development, employment opportunities and accountable leadership rather than historical political loyalties. This changing political culture may reduce the electoral advantage traditionally associated with prominent political families.

Even within Nyanza, once considered Raila's unquestioned political stronghold, internal competition has intensified. Local politics has become increasingly shaped by development records, resource distribution and grassroots mobilisation rather than endorsements alone.

In Kisumu, Ruth is seeking to build her own career and is eyeing the governorship. She has been proactive but has opted not to align with any of the two factions that have emerged within ODM.

About a week ago, she announced her bid to succeed Governor Anyang Nyong’o while pitching to residents some of the development programs she has been pursuing while serving as a woman representative.

“As I eye the office of the governor, I am glad that through these initiatives, lives are being impacted,”she said. Within ODM, she has been running a mission to reunite the feuding camps. However, she is facing opposition from key ODM stalwarts including Treasury CS John Mbadi, who had openly criticized her in the recent past.

Raila’s younger daughter Winnie Odinga on the flipside, had been tipped to carry forward the father’s political torch. That dream, however, is rapidly evaporating as she takes a back seat on the country’s political affairs.

Her public appearences have been rare and far in between. Observers believe the move by President Ruto to appoint her mother Ida Odinga to represent the country at the United Nations has clipped her political wings.

About a month ago, Mbadi launched strong criticisms against her for allegedly faulting how he was running the Treasury ministry. Winnie had accused Mbadi of politicizing the office.

Since then, she had been barely visible.