Why Ol Kalou vote is 2027 election rehearsal for Ruto, Opposition

Muchina Nyaga of the UDA party and Sammy Kamau Ngotho of the DCP party ahead of the Ol Kalou by-election. [Courtesy]

The upcoming Ol Kalou by-election will be another political litmus test for both President William Ruto and the Opposition.

The outcome, although on a small scale, will measure the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, based on recent political developments that appear to isolate Ruto from the Mt Kenya voting bloc that gave him victory in 2022.

The outcome of the by-election could determine the trajectory of next year’s General Election, especially the direction that the Mt Kenya region will take.

Political analysts view the July 16 voting as the last showdown between Ruto’s Broad-Based government and the United Opposition.

Both the government and the Opposition are going all out to ensure victory.

The seat fell vacant following the death of David Kiaraho on March 28 after serving the constituency for three consecutive terms.

His election on a Jubilee Party ticket came as a surprise to many because the region was solidly behind the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party.

What will make Ol Kalou interesting and politically significant is that the people’s loyalty has significantly shifted, and UDA, the ruling party, is struggling to remain relevant amid stiff competition from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP).

The race is mainly between UDA candidate Muchina Nyaga and DCP’s Kamau Ngotho.

Since the seat was declared vacant, the government has gone into overdrive in its efforts to initiate development projects, youth and women empowerment programmes and deliver on promises it made ahead of the last election.

Among the projects launched are the construction of Nyandarua University, land registry offices, the issuance of title deeds to more than 2,700 residents, and the expansion of electricity connectivity.

The government’s actions resemble those witnessed in the 1995 Kipipiri by-election, when the then-ruling party Kanu’s candidate lost to the opposition Democratic Party candidate, Mwangi Githiomi, despite a similar “development” blitz.

So far, the government has dispatched several Cabinet Secretaries and MPs to the constituency to campaign for its candidate.

Leading the team are former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, Nyandarua Woman Rep Faith Gitau and Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri.

On the opposition side, Nyandarua Senator John Methu is leading the DCP campaign.

The campaigns have not been without controversy. Recently, UDA was accused of bribing voters and “buying” national IDs in Kieni village, Kaimbaga Ward. Gitau, who led the campaign team, dismissed the allegations.

“These are cheap campaign tactics. We called on women to educate them on how to vote for their rights,” she said.

Kiunjuri has urged leaders to focus on the development projects delivered in the region.

“We cannot fight while we are not in government. That is why we are fighting for this position: to benefit the residents. This is not a battle for the 2027 election,” he said.

On the DCP side, Methu accused the government of intimidating opponents.

This followed the recent summons of Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia by DCI officers in Ol Kalou. However, when Muhia presented herself at the DCI offices accompanied by her lawyer, she was informed that no summons had been issued and that the DCI had no case against her.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has, however, summoned the MP to respond to allegations she made regarding election rigging.

Kuria, who is spearheading the UDA candidate’s campaigns, also sparked outrage after reportedly referring to DCP candidate Kamau as a “chokora” (street urchin).

The remark became a rallying point for Kamau’s supporters. Senator Methu highlighted the slur, triggering a fundraising campaign.

More than 2,800 supporters reportedly contributed Sh10 each via M-Pesa to “buy Kamau a suit for his swearing-in”, turning the insult into a wave of public sympathy and political momentum.

Political analyst Martin Waichungo said the by-election reflects the determination of both the government and the opposition.

“Nyandarua voted for UDA in the last General Election. This is a big test to see if they will vote the same way in the next election,” he said.

Political commentator Paul Kimita described the contest as a major test for the government in the Mt Kenya region.

“Word is going around that the people of Mt Kenya are not opposed to government projects. They are being given money to support various government programmes. However, it is upon them to elect the person of their choice,” he said.

Former Nyandarua County Assembly Speaker Ndegwa Wahome argued that despite money being distributed to residents, it would not help UDA win the seat.

“Three hundred shillings will not even feed three children. This is just the mathematics of politics started during the Moi era,” he said.

Gitau insisted that UDA leaders were focused on delivering the development projects promised to residents.

“This is not a political battle. Let us unite and deliver on what we promised our people,” she said.

James Githinji, a resident, said the contest had effectively become a two-horse race.

“This is a race between UDA and DCP. We are awaiting the outcome. This will determine the political direction of Ol Kalou and the entire Nyandarua County,” he said.