Why ODM, UDA are losing their grip on Kenyan voters

TIFA Research consultant Dr. Tom Wolf. [Edward Kiplimo, Standard]

The two parties that have dominated Kenyan politics since 2022 are haemorrhaging support ahead of 2027, with a third force closing in fast, a new poll shows.

The TIFA Research survey, conducted between May 2 and 11, finds the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Rigathi Gachagua's Democratic Change Party (DCP) now statistically tied at 18, 17 and 16 per cent respectively, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent.

The numbers represent a dramatic reversal from August 2022, when UDA commanded 38 per cent and ODM 32 per cent. Both parties have shed more than half their support in less than four years.

DCP's rise is the defining trend in the data. The party stood at just six per cent in November 2025 and has nearly tripled its support to 16 per cent in six months, driven largely by Gachagua's sustained attacks on the government and his consolidation of support in Mt Kenya, where DCP draws 39 per cent.

Jubilee Party (JP), which governed Kenya from 2013 to 2022, sits fourth at 11 per cent. Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM), led by Kalonzo Musyoka, stands at eight per cent nationally but commands 62 per cent support in Lower Eastern, its home base.

Twenty-four per cent of Kenyans decline to identify with any party at all, down from 41 per cent in August 2025, a sign that voter preferences are beginning to settle even as loyalties shift away from the two dominant parties.

Nearly half of Kenyans, at 46 per cent, say no party honestly represents ordinary wananchi. Only 41 per cent believe any party genuinely serves the interests of Kenyans like them.

The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent at the national level, with larger margins for sub-samples.