Why ODM strongholds are under siege

Once a formidable party, the ODM party is now under siege due to the open internal divisions at the top.

Fresh alignments ahead of next year's elections have also seen some top leaders in the Raila Odinga party search for greener pastures, threatening the party’s dominance in its strongholds.

Even former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s fairly young Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) appears to be outshining ODM in areas like Kakamega if the recent by-elections can be used as a yardstick.

Already, two National Executive Council members, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi and former Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire, the party’s treasurer, have been linked to the registration of Peoples’ Renaissance Movement (PRM) and United National Congress (UNC) respectively.

Bosire said UNC was engaged in mass recruitment before opening offices across the country.

“The party will join the United Opposition because our ideologies match and it will reflect the national image," said Bosire, who has not been seen at recent ODM meetings despite holding a senior position.

Amisi, the only elected MP under ODM in Trans Nzoia County, last year warned that he would not seek re-election on the party's ticket if the working agreement with the Kenya Kwanza government continued.

“I am a member of ODM, elected for five years. If ODM continues collaborating with William Ruto, then I will not seek re-election in that party. But if it gets out and retraces its steps back to its roots, then we will agree,” he said.

He is among the youthful leaders who have joined party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, among other ODM members, in opposing the so-called broad-based government. The group is now operating under the Linda Mwananchi tag and is resonating very well with young people across the country in its campaign against the Linda Ground faction spearheaded by the chair, Gladys Wanga, and the interim Party Leader Oburu Oginga.

With the incursion of new and existing parties to the ODM's traditional strongholds, coupled with other political manoeuvres, experts warn that the party risks being reduced to a predominantly Luo outfit.

“An injured ODM will not have any say at the negotiations table with the government, and this means they won't get the power they are looking for. ODM has traditionally been a coalition amassing support from three voting blocs, namely Coast, Western and Nyanza regions. With the purge of key leaders, it is significantly alienating its support base,” says Gitile Naituli, a leadership professor.

Aware of the impending ramifications, the ODM parliamentary group yesterday sounded a warning to the UDA ahead of their pre-election talks.

“We want to increase our number in the next General Election, and we are telling any party that we are associating with, any party that wants to associate with us, our parliamentary numbers are not negotiable,” said National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed.

In the just-concluded ward by-election in West Kabras, the ODM candidate trailed with only 30 votes while the UDA won with 3,317. Gachagua’s DCP candidate got 2,640 votes. 

In last year's mini polls, ODM lost MCA seats in Kariobangi North and Narok Township to DCP.

David Wanyoike Warui won the MCA seat in Kariobangi North with 2,282 votes, while the ODM candidate, Michael Ouma Majua, finished third with 1,351 votes. The seat fell vacant following the death of former MCA Joel Munuve, who was elected under the sponsorship of ODM.

In Narok Township, another seat previously held by ODM slipped away after Douglas Twala Masikonde of DCP won with 6,007 votes, beating UDA’s candidate. The ward had been considered an ODM stronghold before the death of MCA Lucas Kudate, who had been elected on an ODM ticket.

DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala says the party had replaced ODM in Western and was soon going to beat the UDA party in the next year’s polls, saying the results of the by elections was a major win for them.

“We entered this race as an emerging force, yet we successfully outperformed seasoned political giants. By garnering significantly more support than established parties like ODM, which managed only 30 votes, we have proven that the people of Kabras West are looking for a new direction and fresh leadership,” he noted.

He said DCP proved that it was not a peripheral player, but a primary contender, especially in the Mt Kenya region, even as it makes inroads into other areas like Western, where DAP-K's George Natembeya was recently polled as the most popular leader in the region. The ODM party appears to have lost all the other seats it held, especially in the Western, Maa and Nairobi region

DCP’s David Wanyoike Warui won the MCA seat in Kariobangi North with 2,282 votes, while the ODM candidate, Michael Ouma Majua, finished third with 1,351 votes. The seat fell vacant following the death of former MCA Joel Munuve, who was elected under the sponsorship of ODM.

In Narok Township, another seat previously held by ODM slipped away after Douglas Twala Masikonde of DCP won with 6,007 votes, beating UDA’s candidate. The ward had been considered an ODM stronghold before the death of MCA Lucas Kudate, who had been elected on an ODM ticket.

DCP candidate Aduda Okwiri secured a victory in the Kisa East Ward by-election in Kakamega County with 1,952 votes, which was considered a major win for the party outside its primary stronghold.

 Gachagua interpreted his party’s win in Maa and Nairobi regions as a paradigm shift in the region’s politics, saying the entry of his party gave the existing party sleepless nights, while the party’s Deputy Party leader, Cleophas Malala, maintained that the party’s performance in the Western region shows it was a party to beat in next year’s polls.