Inside ODM's fever in UDA

President William Ruto during the launch of Nyota start-up capital disbursement for Nyamira, Migori and Kisii counties at Gusii Stadium, on January 29, 2026. [PCS]

Leaders allied to the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) are increasingly uneasy that many of them could become casualties of an impending pre-election power-sharing pact between President William Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Oburu Oginga.

ODM has already signalled that it will settle for nothing less than the position of Deputy President, the Speaker of the National Assembly and several Cabinet posts, either equal to or more than what President Ruto allocated his Mt Kenya allies after the 2022 General Election.

Oburu has publicly stated that if the presidency is not on the table, the Deputy President’s position remains the party’s irreducible minimum for backing Ruto’s re-election bid. “We shall demand our share that we have been deprived of for a long time. We will also secure more Cabinet Secretary slots, alongside development projects,” Oburu said recently.

Should such a deal materialise, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula could find themselves demoted to lesser positions or shifted back to Cabinet roles, positions both have previously held.

While some ODM leaders argue that the party’s national outlook entitles it to senior partner status in any pact, others insist ODM should go it alone and field a presidential candidate in 2027. However, the unfolding talks have already sent shockwaves through UDA ranks.

During a recent National Governing Council (NGC) meeting at State House, UDA leaders openly expressed fears of being politically sidelined despite their role in forming the current government.

Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana told President Ruto that UDA loyalists, the “children of the house”, were worried they would be forgotten in favour of new partners.
“As we go into structured negotiations, we, the children of the house, are very worried because those who have always been in the house tend to be sidelined when others come in,” he said.

Mungatana urged the President to ensure UDA’s negotiating team represented the fears of existing allies. “When we see very good ministries going to the other side, people worry. They don’t tell you, but people worry,” he added.

When President William Ruto attended ODM's 2oth Anniversary in Mombasa. [PCS]

Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire echoed similar concerns, especially over the fate of the Deputy President’s position. She used the forum to strongly endorse Kindiki, praising his role in articulating the government’s agenda since assuming office.

She assured Kindiki of unwavering support from UDA and affiliate parties, remarks widely interpreted as a warning against tampering with the current Ruto–Kindiki arrangement.

Teso South MP Mary Emase also voiced concerns, warning against prioritising late political entrants at the expense of loyal party members. She questioned whether new aspirants would be allowed to register late and disrupt established candidates, a sentiment that exposed deep-rooted anxiety within UDA.

President Ruto’s response, however, appeared to unsettle his allies. He assured them that while negotiations were ongoing, the presidency was not up for discussion, implying that all other positions were negotiable.

“I want to make it clear that the President is still in UDA. I don’t think there is any bigger position than that,” Ruto said.

He added that negotiations required compromise, insisting the outcome would be “win-win” and balanced. The President also declined to close the party’s aspirants’ window, urging leaders to use their resources to win grassroots support.

Both parties’ National Executive Councils have since ratified the decision to pursue talks ahead of the 2027 polls, a move that has further unsettled some UDA leaders fearful of losing influence.

President Ruto narrowly defeated Azimio leader Raila Odinga by about 200,000 votes in 2022 but now predicts a three-million-vote margin in 2027, banking on support from ODM strongholds.

Political analysts say the talks will inevitably produce casualties on both sides. Prof Gitile Naituli argues that ODM leaders who miss out on coveted positions may defect, while key figures such as Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Speakers Moses Wetangula and Amason Kingi have the most to lose.