Can't rise to occasion: Inconsistent Oburu leading ODM into a freefall

ODM party leader Oburu Oginga. [File, Standard]

ODM party leader Oburu Oginga is trudging on with his pursuit of a political deal with President William Ruto, but beneath that mission lies a critical weakness that is threatening the future of the political behemoth that his late brother Raila Odinga built, as a cluster of profound weakness, indecisiveness and confusion befalls the Orange Party.

As the script unfolds, there are fears that the Oburu-led ODM is in steady decline despite the feeble attempts by the party leadership to rejuvenate grassroots support.

It is barely three months since Raila was buried, but the decay within ODM in just a few months is glaring with each public appearance. In the driving seat is an experienced politician who, a section of party insiders believe, has morphed into a perfect political puppet for UDA and a clique of leaders within the party.

In the past, he was one of the coattailers who relied on Raila’s political clout for relevance, but now he shoulders the responsibility of preserving a party that has been a mainstay in the country’s politics for the last 20 years.

A section of party insiders concerned with the party’s future claim an inventory of the political developments that have happened to the party since Raila’s demise paints a gloomy future for the party and depicts Oburu as an ineffectual and indecisive leader.

Observers believe it will take a miracle for Oburu to lead ODM to political glory.

In the last few weeks, Oburu’s actions, speeches and decision-making have left some of the party stalwarts puzzled. They believe the party is headed in the wrong direction.

For instance, early this week, Oburu made his first public rally at the historic Kamukunji grounds in Nairobi to rally the support base to back their move to begin talks with President Ruto’s regime.

What had been anticipated to be the perfect platform to present Oburu to the wider audience and the party’s support base turned into what many believed was an epic failure.

The man of the moment struggled to contain the crowds. His speech was incoherent.

Oburu, at one point, had to beg in Luo to be allowed to speak as a chorus of confusion echoed on the microphone in an overcrowded podium. There was no sign of leadership. No order, as his foot soldiers also scrambled for space.

Unlike his late brother, who could easily calm the crowds with just one word, “ayaaa”, a frustrated Oburu was left waving his hands in disappointment while lamenting why a part of the crowd was not waving their hands to endorse his statements.

Yesterday, however, Oburu’s second major rally in Busia improved a bit, although it was a meeting of party delegates mobilised in Busia and dressed in matching party colours.

In his speech, Oburu remained steadfast that he is on the right track and rallied the members to back him.

The meeting is part of an initiative the party has adopted to market Oburu to the ODM cradle and also rally residents to back their proposed pre-election talks with Ruto.

“I will continue in the driver’s seat, and I have come to ask for that support. If you give me support, I will not be fearful and will continue, and as a party we shall obey all the rules of the party,” Oburu told delegates.

But his decisions in the past few weeks have attracted pockets of criticism, with some party insiders claiming he has opted for the easy way out to guarantee political survival for him and his close circle.

Within a few weeks, Oburu has undertaken what some believe are strategic blunders. He has spoken from both sides of his mouth, declared he would be the presidential flag bearer for the ODM leader, threw his weight behind Ruto’s re-election, claimed he is committed to party unity, while at the same time encouraged disgruntled members to quit the party.

In his speech at Kamukunji, Oburu urged some disgruntled voices to leave the party while also claiming they are keen to maintain the unity of the party. One speech, two conflicting statements.

That tone changed yesterday, albeit with pockets of chest-thumping, as he claimed they will not listen to sideshows while at the same time urging those who have left the party to return.

In the same week, Oburu threw under the carpet the ten-point agenda that had been negotiated by Raila, instead declaring the issue of compensation that had been a backbone for the deal be dealt with by a government agency as the rush for a pre-election deal with Ruto intensifies.

According to Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, the party has made itself appear cheap by opting to declare early support for Ruto’s re-election while not focusing on strengthening itself.

“You cannot say you are going to negotiate with someone when you have already openly declared that you are going to support him. What exactly are you going to negotiate then,” says Caroli. He was speaking in a talk show where he also poked holes in ODM’s indecisiveness.

He is among the leaders who have already declared they will not defend their seats on an ODM ticket.

He is not alone. Other party members believe Oburu is being controlled by a clique of ODM leaders who are benefiting from the government.

“What we are witnessing is a combination of inexperience, lack of attention to detail and lack of focus. How can you get a good deal from anyone if you have already openly supported him?” posed an ODM legislator.

The legislator claimed that Oburu is showing passivity to the things that matter and described him as a transitional leader who is not living up to expectations. He claimed the party is a willing participant in its own systematic demise as President Ruto expands his influence across the country.

With age catching up with Oburu and his strength to maintain the sharp political vigour that propelled ODM to a political titan in the country’s matrix waning, it remains to be seen if Oburu will rejuvenate the party’s grassroots support.

Back in Nyanza, a string of political parties has entered the fray to eat into ODM’s support and tilt its dominance. Former Deputy Chief of Staff in the Office of the President Eliud Owalo has also announced plans to unveil a new party.

Separately, a host of politicians aligned to the President’s UDA party have also embarked on an intense early campaign to prepare for a contest against Oburu’s men.

In Kisumu, for instance, former Kisumu Central MP Ken Obura, who is eyeing to succeed Governor Nyong’o and has publicly confirmed that he will not contest on an ODM ticket, is among those plotting against ODM.

Yesterday, a senior UDA operative told The Standard that the main objective is to ensure the region elects only President Ruto’s allies regardless of party affiliation.

This perhaps explains the reason why key UDA operatives lined up behind independent candidate Philip Aroko in the hotly contested November by-elections in Kasipul, despite the two parties rooting for the zoning of regions. Within the Jaramogi family, questions abound about how Oburu will calm tensions as the Raila succession row appears to split the family.

Still, in the party, the fate of those perceived as rebels remains unknown. Since Oburu declared their decision to begin talks on a pre-election pact with Ruto’s UDA, none of the perceived rebels has participated in the party’s rallies.

They include Raila’s youngest daughter Winnie Odinga, Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, among others.

Critics believe the party is falling into the trap that befell Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who negotiated his Amani National Coalition Party into oblivion following the merger with UDA.

Communication researcher Charles Nyambuga believes that, unlike Oburu, the late Raila would not have rushed into making the decision to join Ruto’s government.

He thinks the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga would have waited for internal dialogue and not forced issues before the National Delegates Convention, and even completion of dispute resolution.

“Raila would have travelled to all the ODM bases before making a substantive decision like that of working together with President Ruto’s government,” Prof Nyambuga says.

But there is hope for Oburu as a group of legislators throw their weight behind his decisions and the party direction.

Among those backing him include ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, deputy party leaders Simba Arati and Abduswamad Nassir, alongside a host of ODM governors and MPs.

According to Nyando MP Jared Okello, ODM will hold talks with like-minded parties and claims UDA policies align with those of ODM.

“In the hierarchy of things, the central committee begins an agenda, which goes to the National Executive Committee, to the National Governing Council, then finally to the National Delegates Convention. No party organ has been bypassed,” the lawmaker says.

Additional reporting by Anne Atieno

Political analyst Mark Bichachi opines that ODM is not making a mistake because this is the right time to have coalition talks.

‎”This is in light of the fact that Raila is not there. They will need time to not only make the coalition but also to campaign and convince their voters,” Mr Bichachi says.

‎He believes that such talks will also give them an edge against the opposition, which has no formal coalition that they can be identified with.