Former CS's political endgame hard to decipher, pundits say

Former Deputy Chief of Staff Eliud Owalo at a past event. [File, Standard]

The entry of Eliud Owalo, the immediate former Deputy Chief of Staff, into the presidential race has split opinion over what his candidature means for Nyanza.

While some believe he is part of a covert operation by his former boss, President William Ruto, to weaken ODM’s influence in the region, others believe he is a man fighting for relevance.

Still, others believe he wants to use the political capital he has amassed and use it as a bargaining tool for a bigger position in government.

According to observers, the timing of his decision is suspicious but his ability to craft successful political strategies makes his move a decision to watch out for.

For the last four years, he has been a key operative within UDA ranks and was among the figures who helped the President to craft his bottom-up economic agenda, while simultaneously building for him grassroots support in opposition strongholds.

In Nyanza, he pulled strings to help Kenya Kwanza infiltrate the opposition bedrock.

On Sunday evening, however, Owalo resigned from the position of Deputy Chief of Staff in charge of Delivery and Government Efficiency, following his declaration to run for the presidency in next year’s election.

Speaking to journalists, Owalo reflected on his political journey spanning more than 15 years. He noted that in 2013 he served as head of the presidential campaign secretariat and chief campaign manager for Raila Odinga, and later worked with Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi. Since 2019, he said, he has worked closely with President Ruto, playing a key role in the 2022 presidential campaign.

“These experiences have taught me valuable lessons about leadership, strategy, and governance,” Owalo said, adding that his engagements across the political divide have shaped his understanding of national leadership.

“This decision is informed by lessons learned from my past roles, feedback from stakeholders, and consultations with communities, including my church, Nomiya, which is also my church of birth,” he said.

Few, however, buy this narrative as some believe he is part of a strategy by the ruling party to split Nyanza votes and increase the President’s chances of winning the region.

Although some members of the ODM party are in talks with ODM over a possible pre-election deal, Owalo’s entry is another plank from the complicated game of chess Ruto is implementing as he eyes re-election.

“The truth is that ODM with its many demands, means that the President must also look at himself and what can work in the event that everything fails. Through Owalo, it is possible for some leaders aligned to him to clinch seats,” says John Ochieng, a UDA operative.

Some analysts, however, is pessimistic over Owalo’s bid and believes his move will be fruitless. Joshua Nyamori, a High Court advocate believes he has prioritized personal ambition.

“His presidential ambition is not feasible under the current circumstances. He lacks a political base, a coalition, or a movement capable of mobilising numbers. He is also not responding to a clear national moment or public demand,” he adds.

Barack Muluka, a communication consultant, says it is still hard to define Owalo’s endgame.

“When you look at this move from a Nyanza perspective, it is difficult to clearly define the endgame. One can only speculate. My reading is that Owalo may be feeling sidelined by the centre of power. Since the Gen Z uprising in mid-2024, political dynamics have shifted, new actors have emerged, and the centre has realigned. From his public remarks, it is evident that he is unhappy, possibly because he feels ignored or forgotten,” says Muluka.